Category: Business

Business, City Council, homelessness, housing

Greater Seattle: We’re Number 1 (in Home Listings Jump); Small Biz is in a Bad Mood; and Sweeps are Not a Solution

by Josh Feit

More Sweeps ≠ Less Homelessness 

During last week’s city council budget hearings, Ballard council member Dan Strauss channelled a business owner in his district to give a speech criticizing Mayor Wilson. There’s an encampment in front of the business, Strauss said, leading to this dais grandstand: “We have seen in this last year, since last October, a complete change in the city and how effectively the city is addressing homelessness.”

He continued: “I have a business in downtown Ballard that had an encampment in front of their business last October and .. it wasn’t moved until, I believe, March. And that person reported to me that they have had an encampment on one of the four blocks around their business—and it’s a small block—270 days out of the last 365 days.” This demonstrated, Strauss said, that “just the ability to interact with and work with people has changed from a three-week cycle to a three-plus-month cycle”.

What Strauss’ (and his constituent’s) sidewalk tent example actually shows is not that we need more sweeps, but the opposite: Sweeps don’t work. They simply push homeless people around the city. Logically enough, in the context of an ongoing, active sweeps campaign, an encampment has now landed on this particular doorstep. Sweeping the people living in that encampment to another part of Ballard just means that a different business will eventually end up in Strauss’ ear.

Consider: Wilson is actually doing more sweeps than her tough-love predecessor, Bruce Harrell. According to the UCT’s own records, they’ve done more than 150 full encampment removals this year, compared to 112 by this point in Harrell’s term. According to the UCT’s “site journals,” the team rarely connects encampment residents to shelter.

Complaining about a homeless encampment in front of a business as an argument for more sweeps—when the people at that encampment were likely swept there in the first place—reminds me of the illogical days when neighbors argued against upzones on the grounds that they would make housing more expensive even as housing prices were skyrocketing under the strict Seattle zoning that prevented building more housing.

Seattle Home Listings Increase > Home Listings Increase in All Other Metro Areas

This brings me to the post-single-family-zoning-only Seattle housing market. According to Zillow data for September 2026, Seattle has the biggest percentage increase in home listings for US metro areas. Seattle’s current 14,877 listing represented a 20.3% increase from September 2025.

With housing prices dropping 1.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year, Seattle is a buyer’s market right now.

Rents, by the way, dropped .2% in September and ticked up only minimally, and far below inflation, at 1.8% year over year with typical rent at $2,250.

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Cutting $950,000 is Not a Good Look 

As I’ve noted before in this column, I’m frustrated with Mayor Wilson’s approach to reviving Seattle’s business climate. Following the recommendations of a report her Office of Economic Development commissioned, the mayor seems focused on prompting more tech-adjacent startups as opposed to girding existing small businesses. The thinking goes that tech businesses have a disproportionately positive impact on jobs and the local economy. But my thinking is that indie businesses, just like childcare and affordable housing, are prerequisites for economic growth. Indie small businesses, for example, bring the crowds and lines that make cities vibrant. Lines around the block at clubs are a public policy win for a city.

I’ve been asking managers at bars and shops lately what the city could do for them right now. One thing I’m consistently hearing has to do with the costs of repairs and infrastructure upgrades—how those costs, often related to city inspections, can be debilitating. One manager, who recently oversaw the closure of a longtime North Seattle business (and still manages a couple more across the city), gave a specific example about graffiti, reporting that the cost of  repeatedly cleaning up the graffiti —as the city requires—became onerous for the neighborhood bar that closed.

I’m not convinced graffiti cleanup could sink a healthy business, nor do I think the city’s fixation on graffiti —particularly under Mayor Harrell, who actually funded anti-graffiti education for kids—is discerning policy. But I took this bar manager’s request for city support in earnest—and, lo and behold, it turns out Wilson’s budget cuts $950,000 for a program that helps private business owners clean up graffiti on their buildings.

As a council Central Staff memo put it, “The proposed budget would not continue funding for these services and [Seattle Parks & Recreation’s] ability to offer private property owners graffiti abatement services would be significantly impacted.”

I tend to filter the business-lens on local politics with skepticism, but as a Wilson fan I must say, when the bad-mood example from a bar manager tracks so succinctly with Wilson’s new budget, the mayor’s got a problem. I’m not saying reinstating a graffiti cleanup contract is the answer. I’m saying Wilson’s angle on what’s ailing Seattle’s economy has the wrong emphasis.

Josh@PubliCola.com

Business, Transportation, Urbanism

Greater Seattle: Bike and Scooter Share Could Soon Lap 2025’s Record-Setting Numbers

by Josh Feit

10.5 million by October > 10.5 million by December

Seattle scooter- and bike-share is about to break last year’s record of 10.5 million total rides—maybe as soon as this week, nearly three months before the year is over. The program hit 10 million rides as of late September, and with usage trending up—it increased 68 percent between 2024 and 2025, for example—we’re on pace to hit 13 million by the end of this year.

It costs $1 to access a bike or scooter and 47 cents a minute after that, or about $8 for a 15-minute ride. It gets much cheaper if you get a monthly membership for $5.99 to lock in lower fixed rates: $1.50 for five minutes, $2.85 for 20 minutes. SDOT also requires the main contractor Lime to have a low-cost program for low-income riders.

The scooters are more popular than the bikes, by the way—and there are far more of them in circulation too (more than 10,000 versus 3,500) when you combine the standing and seated models.

There are plenty of reasonable guesses to explain why rented bikes and scooters are growing in popularity. A seemingly obvious answer, the spike in ridership during FIFA, doesn’t seem to account for most of this year’s boon, though. Ridership during June and July, while the World Cup was in play, was higher than the comparable months for last year, but overall ridership was consistently higher in every other month this year as well, highlighting a trend that’s larger than FIFA tourism.

So what’s going on, besides $5.67 per gallon gas prices? One possibility: Four new protected bike lanes came online this year, including a few that go to popular tourist spots, including to the downtown waterfront and one along the waterfront itself, which connects to the existing Elliott Bay Trail.

You can also make the case that the program has been around for nearly nine years now and more people are simply familiar and comfortable with tapping on and bombing down Yesler or climbing up Denny, particularly for that first-mile-last-mile trip to get to or from the bus; the average trip in 2026 is 1.3 miles. And the average ride clocks in at 11.3 minutes.

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Normalizing bike and scooter trips points to my favorite possible explanation, or at least my favorite micromobility trend. Even though, as I reported in an earlier Greater Seattle, non-rush hour bike and scooter share is growing at a faster clip than traditional peak commute time use, more employers may be taking advantage of Lime’s business program that allows companies to offer a commute benefit for short-term bike and scooter rentals.

Those two facts aren’t contradictory. In fact, they’re likely complementary. As bike and scooter rides become more popular, companies are realizing they need to accommodate their employees. Institutionalizing alternatives to cars is the best way to wage the war, and I’m all for it, especially when it signals that companies realize it’s in their best interest to do so.

21% > 38%

The Downtown Seattle Association released some new data last week showing that downtown foot traffic (as measured by workers who work downtown, but don’t live there) has remained stuck since stabilizing in 2024 at around 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels. “Incoming Commuter Foot Traffic” was about 62 million annually in 2019, while it’s around 38 million today, a 38 percent drop.

This puts us on par with other cities such as Denver and Portland, but it’s triggering for the DSA. Bellevue’s recovery is about 17 percentage points better than downtown Seattle’s; their commuter foot traffic is just 21 percent lower than their pre-pandemic levels.

Back Alleys = Main Streets

Speaking of foot traffic and (speaking earlier) of the World Cup, the state temporarily eased some booze regulations in advance of FIFA to help businesses capitalize on the soccer crowds. House Bill 1515, “Modernizing the regulation of alcohol service in public spaces,” allowed restaurants and bars to expand the boundaries of outdoor-table liquor service, including into public space. It also allowed neighboring businesses to combine those spaces.

And while the World Cup has been over for months, the legislation will remain in effect until the end of 2027 as a pilot project so the bill’s sponsors, including prime sponsor Seattle Rep. Julia Reed (D-36, Seattle), can get feedback from the more than 70 licensed liquor businesses who got the temp permits to expand their alcohol service. Of course, it also means we’ll hear from neighbors and others about how the pilot is going.

That extra input could help. “World Cup and Pioneer Square Art Walk are great examples of how vibrant public spaces can be,” says Henry Watson, Director of Development with Urban Villages and the RailSpur project, a Pioneer Square art space that’s been working with SDOT and the state to increase alley activation. “The question I keep getting asked is how we can make that level of activation a regular thing,” he says. “SDOT and the state have a great vision of how to do that with HB 1515.”

“Activate the Alleys” is a longstanding urbanist agenda item; it’s been bandied about Seattle for decades. Here’s hoping the World Cup gave us the kick we needed to actually make it happen.

Josh@PubliCola.com

Business, Development, Economy, housing, Mayor Wilson

Greater Seattle: Inclusionary Zoning, Part 2; Amazon as a Percentage of the Budget; Permitted, but Struggling

By Josh Feit

Last week, I featured Seattle City Councilmember Dionne Foster in an item headlined “Inclusionary Zoning > No Inclusionary Zoning” to reflect her progressive affordable housing stance. However, according to a comprehensive new academic study, she has it backward.

No Inclusionary Zoning > Inclusionary Zoning

So says the study released this summer by an economist at UC Irvine about inclusionary zoning (IZ), a policy that requires builders to couple any market-rate housing they build with affordable housing. Seattle’s version of this—as in Foster’s resolution calling for inclusionary zoning requirements in residential areas where the policy doesn’t currently apply—uses a “fee in lieu” model where developers can pay into an affordable housing fund instead of including the affordable housing in their own projects.

Unlike other (inconclusive) research on IZ, the UC Irvine study had a clean before-and-after look at the policy, thanks to California’s unique history of going through a period when inclusionary zoning (including the fee-in-lieu model) was legal, illegal, and then legal again.

The study indicates inclusionary zoning does the opposite of what it’s intended to do, finding that IZ makes it more expensive to rent. California renters paid approximately $6.97 billion in additional rent in areas with IZ mandates. So, even as IZ funds some affordable units, it comes at a steep cost to renters, including low-income renters, who aren’t “lucky enough to get an IZ unit,” according to the study.

But the real zinger: The study then compared that rent increase to the number of affordable units created and found that it wasn’t worth the tradeoff. As the author bluntly states in the opening summary: “I estimate the cost of generating an affordable unit with inclusionary zoning to be approximately $800,000 [per the 8,990 units created] in ‘excess rents’ paid by market rate renters as a result of the policy’s constraint on supply. This exceeds the cost of directly incentivizing the creation of low-income housing [~$441,00 per unit] in California through existing programs.”

Seattle’s Budget = Amazon’s Stock Price

Speaking of being blunt, Erica didn’t hold back in her report on Mayor Wilson’s $2.5 billion budget proposal last week. And I quote: “JumpStart is Basically Just a Slush Fund Now.”

JumpStart, of course, is the 2020 tax on high-end salaries proposed and passed by former lefty city councilmember Teresa Mosqueda to pay for affordable housing and other progressive priorities. Now, according to a recent economic study commissioned by Seattle’s own Office of Economic Development, it increasingly covers the city’s regular budget shortfalls. Since 2024, when a newly elected city council majority changed the law to eliminate the original JumpStart spending plan, more than half of JumpStart revenues are used to cover the gap between city budget expenditures and general fund revenue.

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I’m not here to cry about that. True believers like me have lost that fight. But here’s a problem with  budgeting-by- JumpStart that everyone should note: The report found that “Seventy-five percent of JumpStart revenue comes from just 10 companies.”

This is emblematic of Seattle’s worrisome status as a one-crop town (big tech). “In summary,” the report states, “the city’s fiscal health now depends on the marginal location and compensation decisions of a handful of employers. It also depends, indirectly, on the stock prices of those employers.”

Zeroing in on the city’s largest company, the report continues: “When Amazon’s stock rises, Seattle’s tax base rises with it; when it falls, the base contracts. (Amazon’s stock price alone has ranged from roughly $85 to $245 over the past three years.) But it means that a fiscal base already concentrated in a few firms is further exposed to the single most volatile attribute of these firms—one the city has no ability to forecast or influence.”

Existing Third Places > New Startups

Wilson explicitly acknowledges the challenge by incorporating her recent “Resilient Economy” executive order  into her budget proposal. Seattle has “become increasingly concentrated on the tech sector,” the EO states. It commits the city to convene a task force “to develop and implement strategies for diversifying and growing Seattle’s economy.”

And while the specifics of the order focus on making it easier to permit and establish startups in tech-adjacent fields, that strikes me as being more top-down than middle-out. As I noted a few weeks ago, the thing that makes Seattle attractive to the talent needed for new startups are third spaces—i.e., existing businesses.

I wish Wilson’s proposal did more for the bars and restaurants and coffeeshops that are already permitted, but increasingly struggling: 67 percent of brick-and-mortar, small, independent businesses told OED they are under more financial stress than during the pandemic. “[Seventy-one] percent reported lower foot traffic than a year earlier, and only 12 percent said customer demand was sufficient to cover their cost structure.”

Josh@Publicola.com

Business, Economy, Urbanism

Greater Seattle: Third Places

By Josh Feit

5,250 > 778

Here’s a rejoinder to those who complain that Seattle’s taxes on big business are going to send major companies fleeing to Bellevue: Seattle has nearly 40 percent more cafes, retail shops, bars, arts and cultural spaces, community centers and food spots per capita than Bellevue.

Known as “third places,” these kinds of public living rooms are considered essential for attracting uniquely mobile high-tech workers away from competing cities.

Last week, the Seattle Department of Economic Development published a new, comprehensive report  about the need for Seattle to foolproof its economy by fostering a more varied set of businesses that participate on the national and international scale. The report, which was written by local economic consultants, cites Seattle’s impressive map of third places as a must-have. “Seattle offers a remarkably rich environment for these connections due to its high concentration of third places mixed into its built environment,” the report states as part of its thesis that third places are an asset for drawing the creative class that’s necessary to resuscitate our flagging startup culture.

The report’s comparison point for what we don’t want to be? Bellevue.

“The difference between Seattle and a less third place-rich region like Bellevue is stark. Seattle has substantially more third places than Bellevue (5,250 vs. 778). Part of this, of course, is a matter of population. But Seattle also has more third places per square mile (63 vs. 23) and per capita than Bellevue (71 vs. 52 per 10,000 residents).”

“Stark” is not hyperbole. When you look at the specifics of Seattle’s 40 percent per-capita advantage over our neighbor across Lake Washington, you can see why young workers would be miserable in Bellevue. While Seattle has more third spaces overall—libraries, community centers, cafes, and gyms, for example—the advantage is stunning when you look at spots that you traditionally associate with “going out.” More than three times as many bars. One-hundred sixty percent more cultural arts venues. Sixty-five percent more shops. Forty-nine percent more dining options.

And, upending stereotypes, Seattle also has more places of worship—by a reverent 42 percent.

Bellevue does beat Seattle in an important category, though. And it’d be good for policy makers at city hall to take note of this. When it comes to parks, Bellevue beats Seattle by 14 percent—7.1 to 6.1 per every 10,000 people.

10 pm > 6 pm

The report doesn’t say how late Seattle’s third spaces stay open on average. That’s important. While people want to move to a city where there’s places to hang out, they likely don’t want to move to a city where there’s a stopwatch ticking on how long they can.  And anecdotally, I can tell you: Shops close too early. This is true in Bellevue as well, but Seattle’s lackluster evening economy is a noteworthy problem in its own right.

From coffee shops to corner stores, from retail to social services, Seattle needs a more energetic nighttime ecosystem. I wrote about this problem decades ago, and I wrote about it again a few years ago, because it’s a defining and persistent shortcoming here. Seattle is too soporific. Newsflash to the rest of country: Seattle is not woke!

A sleepy city undermines equity. The nighttime isn’t just about socializing. If it was easier to take care of business after 5 pm by having greater access to the practical stuff that’s traditionally closed or diminished at night—government services, retail, drug stores, administrative offices, buses, rental visits—people, particularly working-class people, would face fewer barriers to the economic opportunities here.

38 percent > 30 percent

Another thing missing from the report: The evidence to support the consultant’s contention that the creative class workers we need actually gravitate toward third places. I’m not saying I disagree with the report’s thesis. I want it to be true. And it’s certainly logical to assume that creative, young techies like to be out and about.

But is it?

According to a dispiriting essay titled “America is Becoming a Nation of Homebodies,” which urbanist Diana Lind wrote last year, “Americans now spend an average of 99 more minutes at home each day than they did in 2003, while this generation of 15- to 24-year-olds spends 124 more minutes at home than their counterparts two decades ago. Meanwhile, just 30 percent of Americans spent time socializing and communicating in person on an average day, down from 38 percent in 2014, according to [an] American Time Use Survey.”  And another recent report found that Americans are also speaking less—and that the issue is especially pronounced among people younger than 25.

Numbers detailing Seattle’s penchant for being out and about—and how those numbers are trending—would be helpful to have if urbanists want to backup the OED consultant’s third-place advocacy for “face-to-face communication” and “connections.”

The World Cup social scene may have been an aberration. But compared to the crowds I’m seeing at art walks, game days, Saturday night on Capitol Hill, lines at popups, music and cultural events, and crowded coffee shops these days, it wasn’t a huge aberration. Seattle seems like it’s hopping. It’d be nice to know if that’s true.

Josh@PubliCola.com

Business, City Council, housing, Mayor Wilson, Police

This Week on PubliCola: February 21, 2026

Mayor Wilson walks back opposition to surveillance cameras, Councilmember Lin wants to repeal stadium district housing law, state commission deals a blow to public defense, and more.

By Erica C. Barnett

Tuesday, February 17

State Ruling Represents a Blow to Public Defense

A state commission ruled that King County was not required to bargain with unionized staff for the county’s Department of Public Defense (DPD) before moving inmates from the King County jail in downtown Seattle to the South Correctional Entity (SCORE), a decision with potentially serious implications for caseloads and staffing levels at DPD and other public defense agencies.

Settlement In SPD Killing of 23-Year-Old Will Cost Taxpayers Millions

A $29,011,000 settlement in the 2023 killing of pedestrian Jaahnavi Kandula, who was struck in a crosswalk by a Seattle police officer driving 74 miles an hour in a 25-mile-an-hour zone, maxed out the city’s insurance policy, which has a $10 million deductible and a maximum of $20 million. Rising insurance claims, including from settlements with SPD, are putting a strain on the city’s budget.

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Wednesday, February 18

In State of the City, Wilson Punts on Key Issues—Including Sweeps and Police Surveillance

In her first State of the City speech, Mayor Katie Wilson outlined a policy agenda that was still short on details—and punted on major issues, such as how she plans to add 1,000 new shelter beds this year and whether she will expand police surveillance cameras into more Seattle neighborhoods.

Seattle Nice Interviews Progressive Legislator-Turned-Chamber Leader Joe Nguyen

Our first guest on Seattle Nice this week was former Democratic state legislator-turned-Seattle Chamber leader Joe Nguyen, who told us he sees no contradiction between his past as an pro-tax progressive legislator and his present job as the head of the city’s anti-tax business lobby group.

Thursday, February 19

City Council Proposal Would Repeal Law That Allowed Housing Near Stadiums

Seattle City Councilmember Eddie Lin is introducing legislation to repeal a law that would have allowed apartments in the Stadium District just south of downtown, undoing a longstanding priority of housing developers and handing a significant win to the Port of Seattle and unions representing port workers.

Friday, February 20

Mayor Katie Wilson: “If We Turned Off the Cameras, It Would Become More Difficult to Solve Many Crimes”

In an exclusive interview, Mayor Katie Wilson elaborated on her plans for her first year, telling us how her position has changed on police cameras since taking office and how she plans to balance her campaign commitment to add 1,000 new shelter beds by the end of the year with a budget deficit and the need to build permanent housing.

Business, podcasts

Seattle Nice Interviews Progressive Legislator-Turned-Chamber Leader Joe Nguyen

By Erica C. Barnett

Our guest on Seattle Nice this week isn’t a politician—he’s a former politician-turned-Seattle Chamber leader, and he says he sees no contradiction between his past as an pro-tax progressive legislator and his present job as the head of the city’s anti-tax business lobby group.

Joe Nguyen, the former state senator from West Seattle, defeated his opponent Shannon Braddock in 2019 by emphasizing his progressive bona fides, exemplified by a commitment to take no corporate contributions. Elected on that anti-corporate agenda, Nguyen went on to propose or support a payroll expense tax on big businesses, an excise fee on businesses that pay executives more than $1 million a year, and the statewide capital gains tax. “Tax the rich,” he wrote in the Stranger, which lauded him (pretty excessively, even at the time) as the “AOC of Washington state.”

 

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As head of the Chamber, Nguyen leads an institution historically opposed to business and capital gains taxes, and he talks like it, too—telling Seattle Nice that while he thinks “we need to have a more equitable tax structure in the United States, in Washington State, I worry that we’re putting all of our eggs in one basket” by taxing big tech businesses over and over. Already, Nguyen said, businesses have started to move jobs from Seattle to Bellevue because of the JumpStart tax, a payroll tax on Seattle’s biggest companies that the city now relies on to backfill its annual general fund shortfalls.

“Politically, it is very popular to say, ‘Tax the rich.’ Politically is very popular to say, ‘Go after the large companies.’ But the hard part that we’re going to put ourselves in is: If you want to tax the rich, you got to have rich people to tax,” Nguyen said.

“I was the architect and then sponsor of a lot of these policies,” Nguyen continued. “However, you’re concentrating a lot of that [taxation] into one specific area. And when you start to get some of this volatility, like you mentioned in your in your post [about social housing revenues] the other day, that’s the worry that I have.”

Listen to a preview of our conversation‚ in which David and I rant about the money pit that is the new downtown Convention Center, and subscribe to Seattle Nice to hear the full episode.

Editor’s note: During our interview, I said the Chamber has supported moving oversight of some parts of the homelessness system to the city’s Human Services Department. The Chamber has not taken a position on this issue.