By Erica C. Barnett
The voters have spoken: Katie Wilson will be the next Mayor of Seattle.
On Wednesday, incumbent mayor Bruce Harrell announced that he will deliver remarks to “the people of Seattle,” presumably a concession speech, tomorrow.
“We are tremendously grateful for everyone who has supported and guided our vision for the city of Seattle,” the Wilson campaign said in a statement. “This campaign was driven by a deep belief that we need to expand the table to include everyone in the decisions that impact their lives. That is what we will be working to do every day as we set up this new administration.”
I’m out of town, having assumed (ridiculously, it turns out) that the election would be over by now when I made my travel plans earlier this year. So you won’t be getting any live updates from Harrell’s speech. What I can say, assuming Harrell is conceding to Wilson, is that this race shouldn’t have been this close, given Wilson’s incredibly strong showing in the August primary (50.75 percent to Harrell’s 41.2 percent, with six other candidates on the ballot).
Unlike other progressive candidates on the Seattle ballot, Wilson actually lost ballot share, ending Wednesday’s count with just 50.19 percent of the vote to Harrell’s 49.48 percent—enough to win, but barely. Wilson’s fellow progressives Dionne Foster (incoming Position 9 city councilmember), Alexis Mercedes Rinck (the incumbent Position 8 councilmember) and Erika Evans (the incoming city attorney), in comparison, took a greater share of votes in the general election than the primary, demonstrating that the extraordinarily close mayoral election was due to factors specific to that election.
The primary factor that helped the unpopular mayor surge, in my view, was an effective negative campaign claiming that Wilson was too inexperienced to be mayor, a charge that for some reason didn’t stick to former mayors Charley Royer or Mike McGinn, neither of whom had previously held elective office. (McGinn, like Wilson, worked for a lefty nonprofit before becoming mayor; Royer was a TV journalist. While Royer served three terms, McGinn served just one and began Seattle’s long, since-unbroken string of one-term mayors.).
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Misleading ads and mail suggested Wilson had never had a real job and was basically a privileged princess, a pretty openly misogynistic tactic Harrell compounded on the campaign trail, when he refused to address Wilson by her name, referring to his opponent instead as “she” and “her.” A KUOW story highlighting the fact that Wilson has received help from her parents paying for child care (which the story initially implied, incorrectly, was something they’d been doing for years), led to exaggerated and false claims that she was “living off her parents’ money.”
None of the stories about Wilson accepting help from her child’s grandparents noted that Harrell, 67, is worth at least $15 million and has been a very wealthy attorney for many decades. Then again, neither did Wilson—a pointed decision that helped Harrell march all over her and almost certainly reclaim some on-the-fence voters who picked Wilson or another progressive in the primary. Instead of hitting back at Harrell’s misstatements and hypocrisy, Wilson ran a generally positive campaign, focusing on her plans for the city instead of responding to her opponent’s attacks.
Unanswered attacks have a way of becoming de facto truth, and Wilson would probably have won on election night if she had reacted in kind. After all, Harrell’s own history includes many potential opportunities to go negative—or, as consultants say, to “contrast” their records.
But no matter—Wilson is ahead, as of this story, by 1,976 votes and by a 0.71-point margin, which is enough—and in the long run, people don’t tend to remember whether mayors have “mandates,” just which candidate won. “Mayor-elect Wilson” sounds pretty good to us.
Once the Chamber knew Nelson was toast, they dumped all their money into saving Harrrell: sort of like National Democrats trying to win Florida and/or Ohio in the mid 2000s. Close, but no cigar. Plus, Harrell is from around here (even if he seems a better fit to be Bellevue’# mayor) so that counts amongst longtime residents.
YES!! What about the story that KUOW didn’t release until Election Day making claims about Harrell’s unethical behavior! Or I heard he had money enough to release ads at the Mariners’ games! He like any mayor has STAFF MEMBERS to write a large budget. And from those I know inside they say he waffles that’s the opposite of sticking to what you committed to doing for our city! Katie is young, but really smart, and an accomplished organizer! I can’t wait to see what these newly elected young vibrant women do for our city!!
A welcome surprise…now to see if the council will obey the will of the people and work with the new mayor. I get that democracy comes with some internal tension between ideas but maybe the council can try to solve problems instead of just opposing for the sake of it. If they need a reminder of the problem, right across the street is a big hole in the ground that could have been developed years ago.
Seattle needs to hold onto every piece of land it owns and claw back more where it it can, get it developed for productive uses under a land rent model that both makes money for the city and holds the value in the land, rather than turning it over to speculators.
McGinn probably would not have won in a head to head race (with Nickels). But it became a race with one neophyte against the other and the voters picked McGinn. The main problem with Nickels is that he broke with The Stranger over the monorail and much of the city when he didn’t plow the streets.
McGinn was not a good mayor. He is a nice guy — his heart is in the right place — but he was in over his head. His performance as mayor likely dragged down Wilson. This should have been Harrell’s argument from the get go. “You don’t want another McGinn, do you?”. Of course people forget things (so that might not have worked).
I agree with you that the race should not have been close. If Harrell had adopted zoning reforms that were similar to what Spokane adopted (or even more liberal) he would have sailed to victory. It really is striking. No major scandals. The police situation seems to be under control. We have bike lanes and bus lanes in places many never thought possible. But he jumped in bed with the NIMBYs which was by far his biggest mistake. Instead of people thinking “Katie is nice, her heart is in the right place, but I want to go with experience” they were thinking “Rent is too damn high and Bruce isn’t doing anything about it! I’m voting for Wilson!”
Yes, as I have commented before, the race should NOT have been this close. Not responding to negative attacks or providing her own ‘contrast’ with Harrell (lakefront mansion, out-of-touch Bruce vs. apartment renting, affordability-understanding Katie) was a major factor. But the other factor no one seems to want to talk about is Katie’s progressive base of voters was too white. If you look at the progressive voter base of Erika, Dionne, and Alexis, there were A LOT more Blacks, Latinos, and Asians, which suggests a minority outreach problem on Katie’s team. I saw this first hand when I attended Katie’s election-night party – 95% white, 5% minorities (Blacks, Latinos, Asians), when the minority population in Seattle is about 30%. If Katie had anywhere close to 30% minorities in her progressive base like the other citywide progressive candidates, she would have trounced Bruce! Katie should therefore work hard to include a lot more minorities in leadership roles in city government and in city contracts. If she does this, she will cruise to a re-election victory in four years.
I believe very deeply that there is more to process about this race on precisely those grounds. Progress demands that we address the needs of all residents and celebrate difference. Additionally, Seattle could only benefit from more cultural contributions.
Congratulation Mayer Wilson and your to Erica you faithful blog campaign manager and cheerleader.. I wish you well and as important all of us in Seattle as you work to assemble a team and strategy to create safer streets, better safe housing, and unite our divided populace and continue the process helping our city heal and reach a greater potential.
My best wishes to you Mayor Wilson