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Pollster: King County “Should Be a Concern for Democrats” in Gov’s Race

The latest poll numbers showing Republican Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna beating US Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA,1) 46-39 in the 2012 governor’s race contain some more grim news for Inslee: He’s barely ahead in King County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.

The Democrat is supposed to win King County. And Inslee does in the latest poll: 45-39. But here’s some perspective: US Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) beat Republican challenger Dino Rossi in King County in 2010 64.59 to 34.91.

McKenna, a former King County Council member, who beat Democrat John Ladenburg (former Pierce County executive) 53-46 in King County in the 2008 attorney general election, supposedly represents the best GOP hope in years largely because he can siphon off the Democratic advantage in King County. What should we make of his 39 number?

Here’s what Kevin Ingham, vice president for polling and research at polling firm Strategies 360, tells PubliCola:

The size of Inslee’s lead in King County should be a concern for Democrats. In 2004, Chris Gregoire beat Dino Rossi 58 percent to 40 percent in King County. At this point, McKenna has as much support as Rossi did, while Inslee has far less than Gregoire wound up with.

Ultimately, Republicans need to be in the mid-40s in King County on election day to have any chance of winning. Interestingly, though, McKenna’s favorability rating in King County is right at 40—which is higher than he scores in any other part of the state. Inslee’s favorable in King County is 42 percent.

Asked their thoughts on the King County numbers, McKenna campaign manager Randy Pepple told us that “39-45 is a winning number in King County for a Republican in a statewide race.”

Inslee’s spokeswoman Jaime Smith says:

“At this early point in the race, you can’t read too much into the numbers. Ask me again what I think on September 19, 2012.”


  • Anonymous

    These numbers reflect increasing disaffection between Seattle/King Ds and those from elsewhere, who don’t have a lot of empathy with (or even understanding of) core urban D values. The Seattle/Olympia hostility axis is not limited to R v D.

  • Godwin

    Seems like core D values are to pander to the progressive base and then screw them when they get elected. Good for short term results I suppose. 

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Timothy

    Wait– the election is 2012.  Go away.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, there’s that, but it wasn’t those “values” I was thinking about.

  • Insider

    King County voters need to choose the no-new-taxes Democrat who opposes K-12 cuts over the no-new-taxes Republican who opposes K-12 cuts!

  • Insider

    King County voters need to choose the no-new-taxes Democrat who opposes K-12 cuts over the no-new-taxes Republican who opposes K-12 cuts!

  • Trevor

    Yes Inslee has ONLY 13 months to improve his numbers. Let the 24 hour news cycle begin!

  • DA

    I love that comment by the spokesperson.  Very typical of Inslee’s campaign right now.  On Friday they basically said “At this early point in the race, we’re not talking about policy positions, the budget problems, or anything of substance. Ask me again what I think on September 19, 2012.”

  • sarah

    It has begun.  That’s the trouble.  McKenna’s been running for at least a year; Inslee needs to catch up.

  • squid

    My understanding is that Inslee was going to run only if Gregoire wasn’t, i.e. this is essentially a “friendly” handoff.  Inslee’s lack of substance sends a similar message: better to say nothing than to risk contradicting Gregoire about anything.  This campaign just looks like Gregoireism with a new face, and it is no wonder that King County isn’t enthused.

  • MVH

    Jay should be fine. He’ll have to grind McKenna in King County the same way that Dow ground down Susan Hutchison. As you remember, Susan was polling early at 47 percent, but finished at 40.9 percent.

  • Yusuf Cabdi

    I am for independent candidate. I fed up with Democrats’ lip-service, and Republicans are out of question. Anyone  who wants to be write in, please come forward. This may be your moment.

  • Anonymous

    I sympathize, but America’s political system is not kind to third parties or independents. Among other factors: 1) it keeps power away from more progressive urban populations (exhibit a–U.S. Senate); 2) corporate wealth stays in control no matter which party occupies White House, or controls Congress. Fortunately, things are less “controlled” the further down from the national level you get. Washington State is more urban v rural than R v D, but still, third party candidates have not done well here either. For statewide office, I cannot recall a single third party candidate that has succeeded in the past fifty years. The best independents can do is organize single issue initiatives, and even that process has fallen into the hands of rich idiots in the past couple of decades.

  • Barnes

    That’s because a lot of what’s said in the pandering doesn’t make for sound policy come game time. You can make all sorts of promises to the Progressive, urban crowd when you’re out fundraising and lining up endorsements but it’s a different deal when you find yourself in Olympia having to actually represent the needs of the entire state.

  • Barnes

    The only people paying attention are politics junkies and policy wonks like us. Generally speaking we’re not undecided voters and those of us who are aren’t tuned into what’s happening now, we’re waiting for the real moves yet to be made. Inslee has plenty of time to get his message together.

  • Anonymous

    You mean “actually represent the needs of the corporate and wealth interests that largely run the entire state” don’t you? Like Boeing on tax issues, Weyerhaeuser on west side natural resource issues, ag and wheat interests on east side water and resource issues, Amazon on internet issues, and Microsoft on whatever is bothering Steve Balmer at the moment.

  • jimu

    Time to start panicking.

    Get ready for more McKenna = Teaparty headlines!

  • jimu

    Time to start panicking.

    Get ready for more McKenna = Teaparty headlines!

  • jimu

    Time to start panicking.

    Get ready for more McKenna = Teaparty headlines!

  • Barnes

    No, that’s not what I meant. You can tell because that’s not what I typed.

  • Barnes

    No, that’s not what I meant. You can tell because that’s not what I typed.

  • Barnes

    No, that’s not what I meant. You can tell because that’s not what I typed.

  • Shaggy

    There’s always GoodSpaceGuy!

  • Insider

    In 2010 Denny Heck proved the advantage of running a valueless campaign in a Democratic district. It lines you up for the creation of an even surer opportunity! Don’t count Inslee out after ’12 — the party will take care of him.

  • sarah

    Governors don’t “represent” the entire state.  They govern, as in being administrators.  Legislators represent their constituents. 

  • sarah

    Governors don’t “represent” the entire state.  They govern, as in being administrators.  Legislators represent their constituents. 

  • sarah

    Governors don’t “represent” the entire state.  They govern, as in being administrators.  Legislators represent their constituents. 

  • Anonymous

    Yes, and I can also tell you don’t have much sense of irony either. Next time I’ll just post a flat and humorless version.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, and I can also tell you don’t have much sense of irony either. Next time I’ll just post a flat and humorless version.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, and I can also tell you don’t have much sense of irony either. Next time I’ll just post a flat and humorless version.

  • sarah

    I’m not a policy wonk.  I’m a voter, and I’m worried about what McKenna will do.  Being ahead is being ahead, at whatever point in the campaign. 

  • sarah

    I’m not a policy wonk.  I’m a voter, and I’m worried about what McKenna will do.  Being ahead is being ahead, at whatever point in the campaign. 

  • sarah

    I’m not a policy wonk.  I’m a voter, and I’m worried about what McKenna will do.  Being ahead is being ahead, at whatever point in the campaign. 

  • Silas T. Potter Jr.

    THanks, we need more ‘progressives’ like you throwing away your votes.

  • Silas T. Potter Jr.

    THanks, we need more ‘progressives’ like you throwing away your votes.

  • Silas T. Potter Jr.

    THanks, we need more ‘progressives’ like you throwing away your votes.

  • sarah

    McKenna’s a hell of a lot more competent in every way than Hutchison, and I wish Dow were running because he’s a hell of a lot more competent, publically, at least, than Inslee.  And publically is the only way most voters see candidates.     

  • sarah

    I don’t care what happens to Inslee, or any individual candidate.  I care what happens to the state — meaning us. 

  • Barnes

    That version was flat and humorless. I suspect shenanigans.

  • Barnes

    Ah, but they do. The governor is responsible for delivering effective government to the entirety of the state. They have no particular constituency, that’s their great partisan undoing.

  • Barnes

    If you read and comment at Publicola you are either a politics junkie or a wonk. Normal people don’t kick it here at 10:40pm on a Monday night.

  • Anonymous

    Shenanigans? None intended. My apology if that’s how it was taken.

  • Anonymous

    p.s. I have seen the consequences of the difficulty for “tone” to be read very well in emails, and I think the same holds for blogs. Unless you’re over the top like Ivan, of course, in which case it’s hard to miss the tone.

  • Big Jim Slade

    In King County all a write-in candidate does is bleed off votes from the mainstream Democrat. 

  • Big Jim Slade

    In King County all a write-in candidate does is bleed off votes from the mainstream Democrat. 

  • Anonymous

    Most of the wealth is concentrated in Seattle and select parts of King County.  And much of that wealth is in the hands of Democrats.  Witness Obama’s $37,000 per seat fundraiser in Medina today.  And while many uber-rich D’s tell the progressives what they want to hear, they also use their government influence to further enrich themselves.  Progressives are basically among the most gullible and easily manipulated voters.

  • Anonymous

    Rich people who contribute to stop a shift to more progressive taxation (and that would actually help small businesses by removing the B&O on most of them) are by definition not progressive. They are Democrats on many social issues, but on economics, follow the money.

  • Anonymous

    p.s. “Obama’s $37,000 per seat fundraiser in Medina today.” I’m not there. On the other hand, watching the R ‘debate’ last night; what’s my option?

  • Anonymous

    p.s. “Obama’s $37,000 per seat fundraiser in Medina today.” I’m not there. On the other hand, watching the R ‘debate’ last night; what’s my option?

  • Emeryhaggin

    McKenna is the ideal choice for Governor.  He is a Seattle homeboy, must be considered moderate to liberal Republican.  His name familarity state wide is ten times that of Inslee’s. 
    I think McKenna will beat Inslee like a drum.