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Founded in January 2009, PubliCola is a blog about Seattle written by journalists who are dedicated to non-partisan, original daily reporting that prioritizes a balanced approach to news. Started by longtime local editor and award-winning reporter Josh Feit, PubliCola is the first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol.

PubliCola was off and running. In June 2009, PubliCola hired another award-winning journalist, super-sourced Seattle city hall reporter Erica C. Barnett.

People were afraid that blogging would change journalism. Instead, we believe journalism can change blogging. Twenty-first century journalism may look and feel different, and yes Erica isn't afraid to get cranky, but we're committed to making sure online news still delivers independent, reliable, even-keeled coverage. And most of all, we're committed to making sure the coverage sparks honest civic debate.

Bringing you cola for the people, PubliCola is named after Publius Valerius PubliCola, the alias for the authors of the Federalist Papers—the original bloggers.

The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

Preliminary Data Show Nickerson Road Diet Is Working

Data collected by the city of Seattle three months after implementing the controversial “road diet” on Nickerson (reducing the street from four lanes to two travel lanes and a turning lane, plus a bike lane on each side) show that the same number of cars have been able to use the street, and that traffic has slowed somewhat, since the city restriped the road.

SDOT traffic manager Eric Widstrand says the data are still preliminary; the city will continue to do traffic counts through the rest of 2011 and release a full report after the end of the year. However, so far, the study shows that car and freight traffic haven’t been harmed by the lane reduction, and that traffic has slowed to be somewhat closer to the 30-mph speed limit on the road.

“Capacity has not decreased,” Widstrand says. “We’re still able to accommodate” between 15,000 and 18,000 vehicles a day.

The typical speed of traffic on Nickerson, meanwhile, has gone down from 40-44 mph to 34-37 mph. “We aren’t slowing anyone down excessively,” Widstrand says. The new speeds remain higher than the 30 mph speed limit, but are still safer for cyclists and pedestrians. A pedestrian hit at 40 mph is about 85 percent likely to die; a pedestrian hit at 30 mph is about 40 percent likely to be killed.

Cascade Bicycle Club policy director David Hiller says neither the group nor the city has studied whether the number of cyclists using Nickerson has increased. When the city put Stone Way on an equally controversial road diet, an SDOT report showed that more cyclists used the route, people drove more slowly, and declined slightly on both Stone Way and on adjacent neighborhood streets.

Perhaps the most notable fact that came out of the city’s data is that pretty much everybody speeds. City budget shortfall: Solved!


  • http://www.twitter.com/joeszi Joe Szilagyi

    I bet you guys $5 someone is looking at this article right now and thinking, “This is propaganda in the war on cars.”

  • Grover

    “The typical speed of traffic on Nickerson…”

    What the heck is the definition of “typical speed”? Is that a technical term?

    It tells us nothing. What is the trip time between the Ballard Bridge and the Fremont Bridge at 5 pm on weekdays now, compared to before the road diet? That would be some useful information.

    Also, interesting that noboby has studied whether bicycle usage on Nickerson has increased since the road diet. Why not?

  • Verd1n

    Traffic engineers use the “85th percentile” speed as a meaningful statistic. For speed studies none other has relevance.

    Biking and getting those related statistics in the middle of winter is, also, a useless statistic. Traffic data needs to be from March through October. Even then, I’d be shy of the early spring and late fall months – dark and rain tend to be inhibitors.

    Accidents? Well, again, for meaningful statistics you need a decent set. As John Mayall (sp) one sang, “Compared to what?”

    Me? I’d prefer to see comparisons made with similar arterials, dieted and non-dieted. Maybe get a decent Control Chart Analysis with p @ 0.95%. Not sure anyone at Seattle DOT can do that, however. At the extreme, try a Factorial Analysis. How else can you define main effects and interaction effects.

  • voter

    Typical speed is likely 85th percentile.

    ….how is that useful information. Are you anal enough to measure trip times between specific City landmarks? Apart from making your life easier, the City also has goals to make roads safer. Speed and capacity are very useful metrics to address these competing demands.

    Finally, chalk your last question unanswered due to Erica’s hackneyed reporting about Nickerson. While it’s convenient for journalists like her to report that this is a cars vs. bikes thing, it’s important to note that Nickerson originates as a road safety project primarily aimed at improving safety for folks trying to walk across the damn street (they had to remove cross walks because the previous four lanes didn’t meet national standards). I repeat, this project is not about bikes.

  • voter

    Typical speed is likely 85th percentile.

    ….how is that useful information. Are you anal enough to measure trip times between specific City landmarks? Apart from making your life easier, the City also has goals to make roads safer. Speed and capacity are very useful metrics to address these competing demands.

    Finally, chalk your last question unanswered due to Erica’s hackneyed reporting about Nickerson. While it’s convenient for journalists like her to report that this is a cars vs. bikes thing, it’s important to note that Nickerson originates as a road safety project primarily aimed at improving safety for folks trying to walk across the damn street (they had to remove cross walks because the previous four lanes didn’t meet national standards). I repeat, this project is not about bikes.

  • Grover

    “Traffic data needs to be from March through October.” And why is that? Nobody drives between October and March?

  • Grover

    “Traffic data needs to be from March through October.” And why is that? Nobody drives between October and March?

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    I’ve been researching the “Bicycle Boulevards” concept more…taking the approach of creating streets that favor…not merely accommodate…bicycles.

    Check them out in Portlandia:

    http://www.bta4bikes.org/at_work/bikeboulevards.php

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    I’ve been researching the “Bicycle Boulevards” concept more…taking the approach of creating streets that favor…not merely accommodate…bicycles.

    Check them out in Portlandia:

    http://www.bta4bikes.org/at_work/bikeboulevards.php

  • Matt the Engineer

    Bikes. Nobody bikes between October and March. (actually not true, there are plenty of wet road warriors in Seattle, but their numbers are small compared to us fair weather riders)

  • Grover

    LOL You mean you think SDOT does not measure trip times between points on a street? They certainly did for the Mercer Street studies. Why not for Nickerson? Use 15th Ave W. and Fremont Ave. on Nickerson, if you prefer.

    Trip times are the best way to determine how well traffic is moving. The best way to determine if the Nickerson road diet has affected traffic on Nickerson is with trip times before and after the road diet.

  • Grover

    The 85th percentile means only 15% of vehicles are going over that speed. So, how is that speed “typical”? I would think “typical” would be more like the 50th percentile speed, not the 85th percentile speed.

  • Ericacbarnett

    The 85th percentile speed.

  • Grover

    I think it would be very useful for the public to know that almost nobody rides bikes in Seattle in the winter, or other bad weather. Why would that information not be useful? Why would you spend a lot of money on transportation infrastructure that is basically only used when the weather is nice? People have to make trips even in the winter, don’t they?

  • Grover

    That means that only 15% of vehicles are going faster than that. The vast majority of vehicles are going slower than that — maybe a lot slower.

  • kitschnsync

    I live directly off of Nickerson, and I can testify that the road diet has made walking the street much, much safer. Especially after the City took out the old crosswalks, to cross Nickerson was to gamble with your life. The newly crosswalks are very visible to motorists, though I wish there were more of them.

    Also, the inclusion of a bike lane hasn’t impeded traffic. Traffic actually moves more efficiently because of the addition of a center turn lane. On the old Nickerson, people would have to come to a stop in one of the center lanes to turn, snarling traffic and slowing things down all the way back to the Fremont bridge. The addition of the turn lane ameliorated this, so much so that the extra room taken for a bike lane is a non-issue.

    All in all, I’d say the Nickerson road diet goes in the “win” column for SDOT.

  • Anonymous

    Erica, I think you”re missing a word in the last sentence of the penultimate graph. Should it be “…collisions declined slightly on both…”?

  • Anonymous

    +1. Am on Nickerson regularly as a pedestrian and occasionally as a cyclist and driver. It’s an all-around more pleasant and safer-feeling place to be, and I haven’t noticed any worse auto congestion. Kudos.

  • Matt the Engineer

    Seattle has never spent “a lot of money” on bikes. And I’m sure if they did send people out to count bikes in the winter you’d complain about the money they’re wasting doing that.

    I can’t believe the amount of money we waste on freeways, when so few use them at 3am.

  • Anonymous

    “Also, interesting that noboby has studied whether bicycle usage on Nickerson has increased since the road diet. Why not?”

    Be a little patient, Grover. It’s just a preliminary study. Most of your posts complain about government waste, and the rest ask various government agencies to compile more detailed reports for you, and to compile them faster and more frequently. See the incongruity? I’m sure bike counts will be in the full report at the end of the year.

  • Mickymse

    You seem to be operating from the unproven assumption that the restriping of Nickerson was done to increase bicycle use. However, I don’t recall the city stating that this was the primary goal.

    If the goal was to slow down speeding cars, improve safety for pedestrians, and provide better facilities for existing bicycle riders… then it appears they have been quite successful.

  • Papi

    bike racks have been pretty full around me this winter. but i guess these thousands among the 60,000 UW faculty and students are “nobody”

  • Julian

    Grover – didn’t you hear? The city has ceased official bike counts since your landmark “I drove to Queen Anne one time and counted a lot of cars but pretended to see no bikes” study of 2010. They felt it would be impossible to top your research design, and gave up on monitoring bicycle issues altogether.

  • Wilma Flintstone

    Sometimes when I read the comments I realize its really the same like 5 or 6 dudes talking to each other….

  • Grover

    Really? I thought the city only counts bikes in good weather and uses “volunteer” counters (Cascade Bicycle Club members), and announces the locations, day and time of the counts well ahead of time, which is advertised by the Cascade Bicycle Club, on the chance that some members just might want to make a special little bike trip through the counting locations on that date and time.

    That is not what happens?

  • Grover

    Really? I thought the city only counts bikes in good weather and uses “volunteer” counters (Cascade Bicycle Club members), and announces the locations, day and time of the counts well ahead of time, which is advertised by the Cascade Bicycle Club, on the chance that some members just might want to make a special little bike trip through the counting locations on that date and time.

    That is not what happens?

  • Anonymous

    And when it’s [John Bailo], those 5 or 6 are usually the same guy.

    What are you waiting for Wilma, join us!

  • Barleywine

    Wilma is right. And Matt is kinda right.

    The left is a handful of people. And they mostly come out in the day, mostly. But they’re honest, and post as themselves.

    The right?
    Bailo is unique, and mostly posts as himself.

    The Lesser Seattle crowd can post as themselves, or any other way.
    Sometimes MANY other ways.

    Snoop (or whatever name he’s using at the moment) is trash.
    You’ll know him by the tone.

  • Barleywine

    Wilma is right. And Matt is kinda right.

    The left is a handful of people. And they mostly come out in the day, mostly. But they’re honest, and post as themselves.

    The right?
    Bailo is unique, and mostly posts as himself.

    The Lesser Seattle crowd can post as themselves, or any other way.
    Sometimes MANY other ways.

    Snoop (or whatever name he’s using at the moment) is trash.
    You’ll know him by the tone.

  • Barleywine

    Wilma is right. And Matt is kinda right.

    The left is a handful of people. And they mostly come out in the day, mostly. But they’re honest, and post as themselves.

    The right?
    Bailo is unique, and mostly posts as himself.

    The Lesser Seattle crowd can post as themselves, or any other way.
    Sometimes MANY other ways.

    Snoop (or whatever name he’s using at the moment) is trash.
    You’ll know him by the tone.

  • Papi

    Right, the city announces the dates in advance so that the weather will be good on those days.

  • http://twitter.com/r343l Rachael Ludwick

    If the 85th percentile speed is well above the speed limit, then depending on the shape of the curve, a great number of people under that 85% are also speeding. I imagine the curve is pretty tight assuming they measure the speed people go away from stop signs and lights — if the speed limit is 30, you’re only going to have a few people typically going 25mph or less, so most of that 85% is people going somewhere between 25-37.

  • http://twitter.com/r343l Rachael Ludwick

    They announce bicycle count days? The only day I’ve been informed of in advance and knew they’d be counting is “Bike to Work Day”. I have on the other hand regularly seen (here and in other cities) counter wires over a bike lane and realized only after it was a traffic count just for little ol’ me! And I subscribe to bike blogs and other news sources.

  • Verd1n

    From Thanksgiving on to the end of December the skew is due to heavier than normal shopping and social-recreation activity and from Jan. 1 into March there is less-than-usual driving activity given the weather (and probably being broke from Christmas).

    You can check-out the variation in demand, month by month, from the various “permanent traffic volume count stations” maintained by WSDOT.

  • Grover

    Actually, the city, in their emails to volunteers, says that the count will be re-scheduled if it rains on the day of the count. In other words, they don’t do bike counts if it rains.

    Also, the count was held in September, which is one of the best-weather months in Seattle, with not much chance of rain in any given period of a few hours.

  • Grover

    Yes, they announced last September’s bicycle count day well in advance. Asking for volunteers to do the counting.

    http://publicola.com/2010/08/24/sdot-seeking-2010-bike-count-volunteers/

    From Publicola, August 24, 2010: “The Seattle Department of Transportation needs volunteers for their 2010 citywide and downtown bicycle counts on Sept 15 from 6:30-9:00 am.”

    It was easy to find online maps of where exactly the counting was going to take place — pretty much every intersection leading into the downtown core, plus some other locations in various neighborhoods.

    Don’t suppose having all the bicycle blogs, and Publicola (a P.I. blog, also) advertise this event had any impact on how many people decided to ride bikes through those intersections on that morning, do you?

    Also, who do you think volunteered to do the counting? People who don’t ride bikes?

  • Grover

    http://blog.cascade.org/2010/09/seattle-bike-count/

    From the Cascade Bicycle Club website, Sept 9, 2010:

    “On Wednesday, Sept. 15 from 6:30 to 9 a.m., the city will be performing its annual bicycle counts, and they need volunteers.”

    “Ross, while it would be great to see masses of people take to the streets to be counted, we also prefer to see a “normal” count rather than a false spike. We’re not promoting “ride your bike past stops to be counted as many times as possible.” Wink, Wink. Not “promoting it”. Just putting the idea in everyone’s heads.

  • http://twitter.com/r343l Rachael Ludwick

    Well, so it appears they do announce it but I’m thinking only the very, very involved cyclists are actually going to change their behavior or even notice.

  • Grover

    In other words, if the 85th percentile is 34-37 mph, that means that 85% of vehcles are going 34-37 mph or slower.

    So, 34-37 mph is not the “typical” speed on Nickerson, as Erica wrote. If the 85th percentile is going 34 mph, most vehicles may very well be going under 30 mph. Using the 85th percentile really doesn’t say anything at all about the “typical” speed of vehicles on that street.

  • John B. Redux

    Where do I mail it to?

  • Grover

    Rachel, it does not take many “very, very involved” cyclists to significantly skew a bicycle count. It’s not like there are thousands of bikes going through each of those intersections on a normal morning between 6:30 to 9 am.

    You don’t think there are at least 50 to 100 “hard-core” bicyclists in this city who might be willing to take 30 minutes out of one morning per year to ride around downtown Seattle going through the intersections with counters as many times as they can? Each street heading into downtown had a counter. So, all you would have to do is go through an intersection with a counter, then ride one block over and go through another intersection with a counter. They could probably be counted once per minute, especially since those guys don’t bother to stop at red lights.

    Or a few hundred bicyclists who normally don’t go downtown in the mornings could have decided to do so on that day, because there was a count, each going through a couple of intersections.

  • Anonymous

    Razzle-frazzle bicyclers! Razzely-frackly pedestrians! Hurrumph!

  • http://twitter.com/r343l Rachael Ludwick

    I’m guessing typical speed was probably terminology she got from SDOT. In any case, Erica’s comment that “most drivers are speeding” seems likely to be accurate. If the 85th percentile is 4-7 mph over the speed limit and the distribution is tight (as I would expet), then it seems likely most drivers are going more than 30 mph. We’d have to get the distribution from SDOT to know for sure. Perhaps Erica has that information or can post it when they make it available.

    In any case, when the 85th percentile was 40-44mph I’m betting that most (probably 80+%) drivers were in fact going more than 30 mph so this semes like a successful project.

  • Barfly

    Looks to me that preliminary data hows that traffic is moving lower and there’s no idea how many cyclists are using the route.

    But I guess that = ‘working’.

  • Barfly

    So if nobody bikes half the year why are we wasting so much time and money on these hobbyists?