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The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

Analysis of the Close Vote

Morning Fizz   September 7, 2010 at 8:42 am Morning Fizz

1. PubliCola was actually laboring on Labor day. Be sure to check out the article Josh posted about I-1098, the high-earners income tax: Will small business owners be penalized by the measure?

(We also posted about Billy Bragg at Bumbershoot and more about the John T. Williams shooting.)

2. Political consultant John Wyble has done some analysis of the close vote in the the Joe Fitzgibbon vs. Mike Heavey race in the 34th Legislative District—W. Seattle, Burien, Maury Island, and Vashon.  (Wyble does not have a client in the race.)

As Wyble sees it, Fitzgibbon won the middle-income parts of the district (and the hardcore liberal bloc of Vashon Island) while Heavey won the more upscale and older voters in the district, dominating the waterfront.

One thing we noticed that Wyble doesn’t point out: Fitzgibbon lost his own town of Burien, where he’s on the planning commission.

Fitzgibbon won the primary with 9,315 votes. Heavey got 8,814.

3. The PI.com has an interview with Dino Rossi. (And the Everett Herald has one with Clint Didier—who is still not ready to endorse Rossi.)

4. KING 5 poll: U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA, 8 ) is beating Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene 54 to 41.




  • http://twitter.com/fattailed fattailed

    Re: #2, I think the divide in the 34th district race is more that people who thought they were voting for Heavey’s father voted for him, and everyone else voted Fitzgibbon. And delusional West Seattleites with a poor sense of time tend to be concentrated in the wealthier parts of the area.

  • http://43rddemocrats.org Michael M.

    Re: #2 – And this is why Fitzgibbon isn’t a shoe-in. I think we all know that he’s the leftier of the two candidates, and the remaining voters are the Stone voters and the “Mac” voters. I would venture a guess that McElroy (or was this one McEvoy? I always get them confused) are the more conservative bunch, and those who do vote in November are going to be (I’m guessing) more likely to vote for Heavey.

    In looking at the numbers, Fitzgibbon really will need the Stone voters to cross that 50% (and, personally, I think a lot of them, on the issues, would be more likely to support Fitzgibbon).

    It is going to be a dogfight, and will be really fun to watch!

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed fattailed

    I’m not convinced there’s really such thing as “Heavey voter.” I know he got votes, of course, but I don’t think he got many thoughtful, intentional votes. After all, he hasn’t really taken positions or staked out territory on anything but his last name.

    Since voters pay more attention in the general than the primary (even if they don’t pay much attention either time), I think the trend is towards Fitzgibbon.

  • http://43rddemocrats.org Michael M.

    Oh, I think that Fitzgibbon has the edge, sure, but I think Mike has more appeal in the southern part of the district, and he doesn’t have anyone backing him that is…bombastic.

    We’ll see how it all plays out.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr Baker

    There is a story and potentially comments that have been made about the 34th, but nothing from Ivan.

    Wake the Publicola cadaver dogs.

  • Mongo

    Heavey does indeed have name recognition from his dad with the same name. I could have guessed he’d pull out the older voters who know and liked his dad. Joe probably also got some “phantom name recognition” from Joe McDermott. But, I think the fact that he comes from the Constantine/Nelson political lineage certainly works is Fitzgibbons favor. Both Dow and Sharon are VERY popular in the hoods of the 34th and Joe is the latest prodigy from what becomeing an awesome political dynasty.

  • rationalist

    you are making the highly irrational assumption that voters are rational creatures.

    Hasn’t the last 5000 years of human history sort of blown a hole in that theory?

  • Jakers

    I think a lot of them might be on furlough today and thus not wasting their own time on reading/commenting.

  • ivan

    I’ll comment when I have something of substance to say, and not for your amusement.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6SAQ6R2ZBGQQNNBXVJZG66K6KY Mickymse

    Some of us just wish you would refrain from commenting…

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    Hopefully it will be both substantive and amusing.

  • ivan

    Won’t happen.

  • ivan

    He doesn’t, eh? Shows how much you know. Look on PDC and you’ll find “Affordable Housing Council” for $800. That’s the BIAW’s fundraising arm. Let’s see you rationalize THAT, Mr. Smart guy.

  • Nyconven

    Doesn’t that mean that Delbene has picked up 14% since the primary and hasn’t started the media campaign- all is not lost in the 8th.

  • http://43rddemocrats.org Michael M.

    You know who I’m talking about, Ivan ;-)

  • Barleywine

    Ivan, you’re getting old, large and obsolete.

    Please don’t wait for substance, guy. There isn’t time.
    You have an audience here.