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The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

“Anything Less is Trouble.”

2010 Election   August 16, 2010 at 2:06 pm Josh Feit

Despite this prediction and this one (!), I’m not so good at the punditry thing.

So, I asked expert Jennifer Duffy, Senior Editor at D.C.’s Cook Political Report, the venerable non-partisan soothsayers, to tell me what was what on the Patty Murray v. Dino Rossi race.

Here’s what she said about looking at Sen. Murray’s numbers on Tuesday night:

“50 percent or above is a win; 45 percent to 50 percent is a gray area, and anything less is trouble.”

As for looking at Rossi’s numbers, Duffy told us: “I think the most important thing to look at is the total GOP vote since it represents the anti-incumbent vote.”

And we did some analysis of our own on Friday, thinking out loud about Rossi and Didier’s numbers.


  • recon

    That's a mind-blowingly conventional “analysis.” You could have gotten that from a fortune cookie.

  • Mikos

    I like Duffy, but I have to agree, that's pretty mindless and probably shows her ignorance of our primary. Murray is the only notable Democrat on the ballot and there are few races of any kind to really motivate Democrats to vote int he primary.

  • Robert_Cruickshank

    That makes no sense. There's no reason to believe the electorate tomorrow and on November 2 will be the same, especially since there isn't a contested Democratic primary.

  • http://peacetreefarm.org N in Seattle

    Of course it won't be the same.

    There's an immense difference in turnout between the primary and the general election. For instance, in the last off-year federal election cycle (2006), statewide turnout was 38.8% in the primary and 64.6% in the general.

    If, as we hear ad nauseum, all the enthusiasm is among the tea-hadists, then even their small number of people will have a disproportionate influence on the primary results. Add in the (too many) Democrats who are gaming the inanity that is Top Two to vote for Didier in the primary, and you have another stinkbomb being thrown at the results we'll see tomorrow.

  • pinko to the core…

    U guys R insance.

    Murray getting 45 will shock the nation; it will produce headlines in the NYT that the D's will ose the senate. This produces flood of energy and money to GOP, etc.

    Apart from how the primary is a poll, really, we also have poll polls that show Murray is waaaaaaaaaay down in deep doo doo land at 41 points with Rossi plus Akers plus Didier getting a total of 49 points.

    U guys are just not looking at facts.

    Man up dudes. D's are in deep shit.

    Maybe running away from their record could be to blame?

    Ya think?

  • Nyconven

    Think this analysis is worthless. Alot of d's and independents might pick between Rossi and Didier since a primary vote there actually determines who advances.

  • Troother Dare

    Basically WA is a big welfare state. The big businesses and the Government are basically the same and represent 60 percent of the people in the sense of employing them, using them as contractors or paying out some form of assistance to the poor, the the druggies, and so on.

  • Barleywine

    What's your point?
    Are you saying Murray's a shoe-in?

    I agree with you.

  • Barleywine

    Or is it “shoo-in.” Yes.