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New Poll Shows Tunnel Would Impact Elections; Referendum on Tunnel Could Win

Friends of Seattle has released partial results of a poll about the proposed deep-bore tunnel. The poll asked 411 likely voters how likely they would be to vote for a generic city council member who supports signing a contract with the state that “accept[s] the state law that makes Seattle taxpayers liable for all cost overruns” on the tunnel. (Mayor Mike McGinn and city council member Mike O’Brien want the city to add a clause to the city’s tunnel agreement with the state stipulating that the agreement won’t go through unless the state legislature removes a clause in state law that says “Seattle-area property owners who benefit” from the tunnel must pay for overruns. Tunnel supporters say the provision is legally unenforceable.)

Slightly more than half the voters polled, 51.6 percent, said they would be somewhat or very unlikely to support a council member who signed an agreement that didn’t specify that the state, not Seattle taxpayers , is responsible for cost overruns. Just 35.2 percent said they would be somewhat (17.3 percent) or very (34.3 percent) likely to support such a council member.

Additionally, the poll shows that a plurality, 48.8 percent, said they would be likely to vote for a referendum overturning the contract with the state if it doesn’t include a clause exempting city taxpayers from cost overruns. Thirty-two and a half percent said they would not support such a referendum, and 18.7 percent weren’t sure how they’d vote.

Five council members are up for reelection next year: Jean Godden, Bruce Harrell, Tom Rasmussen, Tim Burgess, and Sally Clark.

The group plans to release the rest of the poll, which deals with individual council members, pedestrian, bike, and transit funding, and land use, next week.




  • http://www.joeszilagyi.com/ Joe Szilagyi

    The #1 goal as of this moment for both Conlin faction of the Council and the DSA is to keep their tunnel off of the ballot.

  • morning

    Wow shocking – the group that supports S/T and a clause that holds Seattle harmless has a poll that supports their position.

    Will Publicola publish anybody's alleged poll (where is the actual poll?) that supports their position?

    From FOS:

    By the time this month comes to a close, the Seattle City Council intends to approve a contract with the State agreeing to the multi-billion-dollar scheme to build a tunnel beneath Pioneer Square and downtown Seattle. From that point forward, the City will no longer be able to resist the State's efforts to make Seattle taxpayers liable for cost overruns. We need your help.

    Together, we to push for three crucial amendments to the contract.

    First, Mayor McGinn has proposed contract terms that would make the contract void until the State changes the law that caps the State contribution at $2.4 billion and puts Seattle property owners on the hook for cost overruns. This is a common-sense change to the contract which will protect Seattle's interests.

    Second, Councilmember Nick Licata has suggested an amendment to set aside and protect the promised $290 million from the State for viaduct removal and waterfront street replacement, regardless of possible cost escalations elsewhere. He is right; the portions of this project dedicated to local mobility should not be raided to pay for tunnel overruns. The State already reneged on its promise to authorize new money for bus transit after the Viaduct goes down. We cannot afford to let the State break another promise.

    Third, Councilmember Mike O'Brien has suggested an escape clause from the contracts that allow the City to opt out if the environmental impact statement reveals harmful impacts — for instance, ruining Pioneer Square streets or putting too many historic buildings at risk of failure – or if too much risk is shifted to the public in WSDOT’s negotiations with its contractors.

    We need to urge City Council and the Mayor to stand together in protecting Seattle. .

  • Mr. X

    @1,

    Perhaps, but my guess is that goal #2 is a tie between keeping “Surface/Transit” off of the ballot (because it would get clobbered by a wider margin than the tunnel) and an elevated rebuild off of the ballot (because it would get more votes than the tunnel or the so-called “S/T” option).

  • morning

    Just 35.2 percent said they would be somewhat (17.3 percent) or very (34.3 percent) likely to support such a council member..

    17.3 plus 34.3 adds up to 51.6% likely to support a council member that votes for the tunnel w/o protecting the city from overruns.

    Please don't change the story w/o noting the change.

  • elaineinballard
  • http://www.joeszilagyi.com/ Joe Szilagyi

    Part of me is now officially curious as to how much additional budget WSDOT stands to gain based on which of the options is selected. It could play a role in any advocacy and presentations they themselves do. If it turns out they will get substantially more budget from the rebuild vs the DBT, do we have to start examining WSDOT's statements from the media angle to see if they are being truthful?

    This is why not a binding vote on this shit in the first place is bad. Why would, for example WSDOT say Tunnel=bad if it were, if the difference was +$100,000,000 to them?

  • morning

    The poll was conducted by WinPower Strategies which is John Wyble's shop. They don't advertise that they do polls and John is the author of

    How Many Seattle City Councilmembers Will Lose Their Jobs In 2011?.

    http://www.winpowerstrategies.com/2010/06/21/ho…

    In the article he says “What makes the Seattle City Council so vulnerable?

    1) Tunnel Cost Overruns

    You thought this whole issue was so 2009. Think again. How could any elected official think it was a good idea to support making their own city pay for cost overruns on a state transportation project? I guarantee you if the state tried to do this in any other city, the city and the state legislators from that area would’ve screamed bloody murder! I know City Councilmembers will say they just wanted to keep moving on the viaduct, but it’s clear they didn’t even try to fight the cost overruns. You can count on McGinn to keep playing this card until the City Council makes another tone-deaf mistake.”

    Does Publicola get a tax deductible contribution for running this “story”.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    How would your poll results look if you took the cost overrun language out and just voted on the merits?

    My guess, since everyone else feels free to read tea leaves here, is that the Times article about Armstrong and the cost overrun provision is the first public indication that Gregoire is pressuring the legislature to remove said provision.

    What happens then?

  • Mr. X

    WSDOT has been pushing various iterations of a tunnel replacement for SR99 in the 15+ years I have been following the issue, but I'm sure they'd be perfectly happy building an elevated replacement (perhaps no even more so, given that it is much more likely that they could deliver the latter project on time and on budget, thus burnishing their institutional image as they go to the legislature for funds to do the Cross Base Highway, I-5 renovations, etc etc etc etc).

  • giffy

    Of course State law says no such thing, but that is really beside the point. 51.6% is actually pretty low for a question like this given the 60ish percent that were opposed to the pretend law in a prior poll.

    Polls like this invariably overstate the potential affect on an election and rarely translate directly into actual election results. Voting is rarely a one issue decision and to only have half the voters saying it makes any difference at all pretty much shows that people don't care all that much. People generally respond to these kind of polls based on both their position on the issue and how much they care. You could also read this poll to say that half of voters don't give a shit about this and only a small number consider it all that important.

    Add the fact that this is an interest group poll and it looks even better for the pro-tunnel side.

  • giffy

    This whole thing screams manufactured controversy.

  • Polar Bears Ag. Prop 1

    yes, Gregoire and Armstrong are backtracking asap because of McGinn's leadership on this issue coupled with the natural progression of things that truly shitty ideas come to light and the public gradually realizes how stupid they are.

    For Armstrong to claim this was about ensuring the city of seattle doesn't hold up the state for costs of flower baskets is truly an arrogance estimation that we're all complete fools. His language says what it says and means what it means and the city couldnt' hold up the state for extras anyway, of course. What a liar.

    Kudos to McGinn, if he keeps this up he'll be the best mayor ever — TRULY green.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Right. Go have your parade to celebrate what a tough guy McGinn is and how he's changing Seattle politics. BUT THEN WHAT?

    Watch the tunnel get built, because they've satisfied his conditions?

  • morning

    Soapy – McGinn really isn't trying to stop the tunnel, he and O'Brien only want to protect the city from overruns.

    Mission Accomplished

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Oops, my bad. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Agreed. There is no way in hell that a decision like this will even be significantly influenced by these half-assed opinion polls.

    I am bemused that McGinn supporters think that:
    a) this is working, and
    b) Council is scared of him.

  • misha

    Many of us do not want to vote for any of the five councilmembers up for election. Please give us alternatives.

    Social justice, environmental, and urbanist progressives – PLEASE run for city council and recruit other good candidates. Mike O'Brien and McGinn showed that Seattle will support and vote for progressive candidates even in the face of extremely well-funded opposition with strong establishment support.

    Just RUN, please! We just need five of you.

  • andyinseattle

    My money is on nothing happening until the next earthquake hits and brings the viaduct down. Yeah, we're going to have this endless “Seattle Process” until we have a solid death toll somewhere in the hundreds.

  • Mary Elsa Martin

    In the Loma Prieta earthquake 42 people were killed on the Cypress Street – the earthquake hit at 5:04 PM – no doubt a tremendous loss, but not in the hundreds.

    The viaducts were designed differently. The AWV is of a better design.

    Although the viaducts are similar, extrapolation from one structure to another is difficult because each viaduct’s deficiencies are not identical. The Cypress Viaduct had inadequately-reinforced column hinges just above the first deck. At this location, the Alaskan Way Viaduct does not have structural hinges but instead has short lap splices. Unlike the Alaskan Way Viaduct, the San Francisco viaducts did not have longitudinal
    girders that frame directly into the columns.
    .

    If WaDot couldn't make an argument that the Viaduct isn't reasonably safe, they would have had to close it.

  • morning

    does WSDOT profit from big projects?

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    Profit?
    WTF?
    They are not Haliberton. They are the Washington State Department of Transpotation.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    How about we ignore the AstroTurf organization?

    They are like the tv version of Friends, pretty and artificial.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    Well, there is the journalism.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    If only that were true.

    He would “probably” be against cost overruns if it were his preferred option.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    This sucks, I still can only press the “Like” button only once.

  • NordicGal

    Were McGinn and his gang trained by FOX News?

  • Louisb

    Morning, you forget to say that so few people were on the roads because of the World Series: Oakland and SF were playing so the vast majority were watching the game. That is why the 42 is considered a low figure. Any other day, it would have been hundreds.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    You know, as much as we value Publicola in light of the demise of real journalism in Seattle, posts like this are a little too close to the conservative blog postings that erroneously took down the Dept. of Ag. worker this week.

    ECB, you were kinduva hack at The Stranger. You've been working hard to earn a better reputation here at Publicola. I appreciated that. Don't fuck it up.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Sarah68 used to be my Publicola girl crush. Now it's you. :)

  • elaineinballard

    I wouldn't know, never watched the show.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Just to help out you natives out there who don't have a sense of humor – morning and I were engaging in a device known as SARCASM.

  • morning

    By gang do you mean Publicola?

  • morning

    Read Joe's comment.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    Yes, I know, Morning.

    Hey Joe, there are gas taxes and more work than there is money.
    They could do nothing about the viaduct and they would spend every dime of that gas tax money on their projects some place else in the stats.
    One big project, many little projects, don't matter too much.

  • Polar Solutions

    then what?

    When the costs of the tunnel are realized, there will be some movement back to the rebuild. then we'll see the costs of that grow and grow and how ugly and horrible it is, so it won't get built. In the end we will end up with do nothing/surface transit as a default.

    Then about 4 years later we'll realize that that monorail we killed off costs less than the amount pre overrun we'd said we'd pay for the stupid two mile DBT, and we will decide to pay for the monorail instead of killing it, and we'll realize all it would have taken is another $25 car license fee or something plus the city not imposing all kinds of costs and burdens on it. the fact that by that time, a few years from now, the viaduct really will have to come down and the glaciers really will be melting will help a lot.

    We're adaptive, eventually. So don't be afraid, okay?

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    Let's all run.

  • polarity

    well, they're backing off amigo. They are now saying they don't want the overrun provision. They're no longer saying the lie:

    There will be no overruns.

    McGinn shamed them out of that, and now his leadership is making the state legislators run for cover, as each one points the finger at the others.

    It's working as well as someone who only has a bully pulpit can make it work.

    What happens next is we have these legislator elections this fall, and every one of them in seattle will disavow the overrun language, forcing it to either go in which case mcginn gets a big win or exposing the DBP coalition as deeply divided and unsustainable ending the DBT another way for mcginn and sanity and the planet to win.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Leadership.

    Run for cover.

    It's like British comedy.

  • Good_Grief

    Why don't you get your savior Tim Harris to run? I would enjoy watching him melt down over the course of a campaign.

  • http://www.joeszilagyi.com/ Joe Szilagyi

    Considering that all these political hacks running for cover from a dead tunnel being hung around their necks can be set to Yakkity Sax, your statement is accurate.

  • twb

    If that is the actual language of the poll it is very biased and misleading, even propaganda. To have it hold any integrity as an accurate poll, it should at least use the same language as is in the legislative bill. Poor form Friends of Seattle.

  • Martsmarn

    As someone who lives out of King County, this gold-plated deal for Seattle is ridiculous. The rest of us are tired of paying for Seattle to get everything it wants, with ribbons and bows. Any legislator from our county who votes to pay for this boondoggle will never get re-elected. They should just fix up or rebuild the viaduct, if you don't like it, tough.

  • ivan

    Too late.

  • ivan

    When I call the “new urbanists” a cult, I have people like misha in mind.

  • ivan

    You just don't get it. If they rebuilt the Viaduct, our waterfront could never be “vibrant.”

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    The reasoning AGAINST a rebuild is very sound. I know because every few months or so I'll hear a good argument (like yours, Ivan) FOR a rebuild and run it by my SDOT friends. They shoot it down convincingly in less than 90 seconds.

    People who actually are experts can pretty easily convince any intelligent person that the rebuild is the WORST option for everyone.

    This is NOT about Seattle getting everything it wants, with ribbons and bows. If you want to see that type of treatment, check out the new Hwy 12 they're building from Richland to Walla Walla.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Yeah, I take a little too much pleasure in heckling Wells/Sirkulat, but misha kinda scares me.

  • ivan

    If the reasoning against a rebuild is so sound, then why was that WSDOT's first option? SDOT (Slow Down Our Traffic), especially Mike McGinn's SDOT, has no credibility. They are determined to turn the entire city into a woonerf.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    I'm not an expert, Ivan, and I don't pretend to be. All I know is that the rebuild is pretty damn easy to shoot down.

    More importantly, it's not Mike McGinn's SDOT. It used to be Greg Nickels' SDOT, but now it just kinda runs itself. McGinn is too wrapped up in his bunker mentality to take advantage of his own resources.

    It's amazing that such an idiot became Mayor of a major city. But then again, this is the same city that neglected public transportation for decades.

  • ivan

    It's easy to shoot down if people don't care about maintaining capacity and mobility. It's easy to shoot down if you don't think that people's time has value. It's easy to shoot down if you pretend that Seattle hasn't had this elevated highway along its waterfront for 57 years now.

    It's easy to shoot down if you want to stick your head in the sand and pretend that we won't have another 100K-200K people in this area in the next 25 years, which means a somewhat commensurate increase in private motorized transportation (translation: CARS).

    I have supported, and continue to support, each and every public transit proposal that I have seen. But until all or most of the transit that we need is online, we cannot starve ourselves of road capacity, nor of traffic mobility. It would be like trying to put 10 pounds of shit in a 5-pound bag. People might “adapt,” but with untold costs to the area's economic viability

    A rebuilt Viaduct is easy to shoot down if people continue to follow cult leaders like Cary Moon, Dan Bertolet, Alex Steffen, Mike McGinn, and most of the posters in these comment threads. Heaven HELP this city if we follow that lot.

    The solution that makes the most sense for the Viaduct is a retrofit, which forces a mass transit solution within the life of the retrofit. Until enough mass transit is in place and on line to make up entirely for the capacity and mobility loss that Viaduct removal would bring, PLUS the projected population increase, I will continue to support a rebuild, futile though that support might be.

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    In your posts on this topic, which I do think contain some good reasoning, you estimate a 25-year life for a retrofit. I've heard it would only last about 8 years. It would also be expensive and ugly (huge curtain walls to meet current safety needs). Again, I'm not an expert, so I know I don't have all of my facts straight.

    It is a very seductive idea. Unfortunately, it sounds too good to be true because it is. Of that, I remain confident.

  • ivan

    You'll have to do better than “I have heard.” We don't have to descend to the ECB level in these comment threads. Nobody would advocate a retrofit with only an 8-year life.

    We stipulate that the Viaduct is “ugly” and that even a brand spanking-new Viaduct would be “ugly.” I might be in a minority around here, but maintaining the mobility that we now enjoy is more important to me.

    If this Viaduct did not exist already, I wouldn't want it any more than anyone else does. But here is jolly well is, isn't it, and people jolly well depend on it, don't they?

    That might be trivial for some “world changing” “new urbanist,” but it sure isn't for me.

  • Donolectic

    Not really, but I never really had a problem with ECB in the first place.

  • Donolectic

    Shake your cane some more!

    When whatever community you live in becomes the economic center of the state, we can talk.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6SAQ6R2ZBGQQNNBXVJZG66K6KY Mickymse

    Don't worry, Misha… There are already folks planning to run. Including some of the folks with good also-ran showings last year.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6SAQ6R2ZBGQQNNBXVJZG66K6KY Mickymse

    Ahem… Don't you mean that if you get stuck paying for this tunnel, you'll have to give up the SUBSIDY that the rest of the state gets from Puget Sound-area taxes, Martsmarn?

    Seattle drivers don't currently get a $1-for-$1 return on their taxes — much less “everything it wants, with ribbons and bows.”

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6SAQ6R2ZBGQQNNBXVJZG66K6KY Mickymse

    Generally, I like arguing with ivan… but I'm going to give him kudos here for use of the term “woonerf.” 8-)

  • Drive-By-Trucker_(Soapboxin')

    Good catch. Can't wait to use that in I-Phone Scrabble!

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6SAQ6R2ZBGQQNNBXVJZG66K6KY Mickymse

    The problem with your line of reasoning, ivan, is that many folks think people's lifestyles can and will change… in the same way that many people don't have landlines any more, record stores are closing, airplanes are used to travel long distance instead of trains, and folks can now carry their entire personal book or music library around in their backpacks.

    A Rebuild may be the best way to continue moving 110,000+ vehicle trips through the SR 99 space, but that's not my goal.

  • ivan

    There will be 110,000 vehicle trips through the SR 99 corridor whether that's your goal or not. The sheer population increase will ensure that. Now if you think the Alex Steffen mind-control cult will somehow become the dominant socio-political paradigm around here in the next 25 years, I have this wonderful oceanfront lot in Missouri that I'll sell you cheap.