Viva La Cola!

Founded in January 2009, PubliCola is a blog about Seattle written by journalists who are dedicated to non-partisan, original daily reporting that prioritizes a balanced approach to news. Started by longtime local editor and award-winning reporter Josh Feit, PubliCola is the first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol.

PubliCola was off and running. In June 2009, PubliCola hired another award-winning journalist, super-sourced Seattle city hall reporter Erica C. Barnett.

People were afraid that blogging would change journalism. Instead, we believe journalism can change blogging. Twenty-first century journalism may look and feel different, and yes Erica isn't afraid to get cranky, but we're committed to making sure online news still delivers independent, reliable, even-keeled coverage. And most of all, we're committed to making sure the coverage sparks honest civic debate.

Bringing you cola for the people, PubliCola is named after Publius Valerius PubliCola, the alias for the authors of the Federalist Papers—the original bloggers.

The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

Energy, Transportation, and Land Use Patterns

In response to last week’s post about how cars cause significant greenhouse gas emissions in addition to what comes out of the tailpipe, some commenters contended that even so, car-dependency is not a problem because cars can be as energy-efficient per passenger-mile as buses and trains.

But that perspective is classic “can’t see the forest for the trees.” Because vehicle efficiency is just one piece of the puzzle that leads to an efficient urban transportation system.

The sexy graph below tells the story (click it to see an enlarged version):

For the U.S. we see that in general, cities with higher density and more extensive transit service use less energy per capita for transportation, with New York consuming the least. Seattle would land a bit to the left of Los Angeles on the graph. (Keep in mind that greenhouse gas emissions are typically about proportional to energy use.)

But what’s truly amazing is the difference between the U.S. and Europe. On average the European cities use about one third of the energy used by New York, the most transportation-efficient city in the U.S. How is that possible?

Socioeconomics likely explains part of it, since it is a nearly universal truth that energy use increases with personal income. It’s worth noting, however, that even though average incomes in the U.S. are higher than those in most European countries, European city-dwellers enjoy a quality of life that is at least on par with U.S. cities.

And part of it the difference is due to the relatively small, efficient cars Europeans tend to drive.

But the critical ingredient of  Europe’s high-efficiency urban transportation systems is a synergistic combination of extensive, high-quality transit, and compact, mixed-use development patterns.

These factors are mutually reinforcing: Population density and a mix of uses enable shorter trips and allows transit to operate efficiently; and transit stations create spatial catalysts around which compact development can be focused.

When transit serves high density areas it tends to run closer to capacity, thereby reducing energy consumed per passenger. When trips are shorter, they require less energy if made by motor vehicle, but are also more likely to be made by foot or bike.

Furthermore, when there are attractive alternatives to a car, fewer people own them, which has the added benefit of reducing the non-trivial energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with manufacture, maintenance, and infrastructure, as discussed here. If those factors were included on the graph above, the difference between European and U.S. cities would become even more pronounced.

The end result is a balanced, equitable, energy-efficient urban transportation system. And this is not just hopeful speculation. The proof is on the ground in cities all over the world.

In the U.S, the absurd amount of car-dependent sprawl we have built is a major impediment to creating the kind of compact, walkable, transit-rich communities that will reduce our transportation system’s energy consumption over the long term. But here in the Puget Sound region, because we are growing, we have a unique opportunity to make progress. The region’s population is projected to grow by 40 percent over the next three decades. If we hope to create a region that will prosper in the face of future challenges, we must do everything possible to accommodate this growth with compact development and aggressive transit investments.




  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    KIA and others are ready to deliver fuel cell cars by 2015…they run on Hydrogen which can be produced from water and it produces zero emissions. Old school Malthusian analysis such as you present is no longer relevent in a Cornucopian 21st Century Economy. People will crave space and land. Further density just contributes to the demise of the 30 archaic urban centers.

    The future? Tri-Cities, WA.

  • andysilber

    Fuel cells are not zero emission: it takes energy to convert water to hydrogen. Quite a lot of it. Also hydrogen is difficult to store and even more difficult to transport, so it's not an ideal transportation fuel. Given current technology Lithium batteries are less expensive and more efficient.

    In the future the storage and transport issues of hydrogen may be solved, but it will always take energy to crack water.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    Hydrogen isn't free energy from water. It requires energy to split water atoms into oxygen and hydrogen. You then have to compress that hydrogen, pump it, truck it to a gas station, then convert it back to energy in a fuel cell. The entire process is less efficient than electric cars. Plus cars with fuel cells will be very expensive (large tanks required for hydrogen plus rare metals needed in fuel cells).

  • N8

    I have a wealthy friend that lives in downtown Vancouver, owns a car and could easily pay for valet parking, but when I went to visit him, he took the bus to meet us and we rode the train often, cause it was easier, NOT because it was greener. Another friend rides the bus from Everett to Bellevue everyday for work, NOT because it is green, but because it is easier. People will change their behavior when we make it easier, part of this means stopping to subsidize cars so that they are not unfairly cheaper and easier than other modes of transportation.

    We need high-speed rail from Everett to Bellevue to Tacoma and another that runs Everett to Seattle to Tacoma and only stops at MAJOR transportation hubs.

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    1) Energy to convert. No longer a problem with Nocera (MIT) process.

    Blueprint for 'Artificial Leaf' Mimics Mother Nature
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/10…

    2) Storage.

    Researchers Unveil New Hydrogen Storage System for Cars
    http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go…

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    Some stations on the California Hydrogen Highway are self contained — the produce the electricity to split water from sunlight, and store it right there for FCEL cars to fill up.

    WA State is a laggard in Hydrogen technologies.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    1) “Our results may represent an important first step towards the design of novel artificial solar energy transduction systems” (emphesis added) Sure sounds like a good technology to bet our future on.

  • andysilber

    John,

    I've been reading articles like those since the 1980s. Maybe they'll pan out, but until you see them in mass production it's not something you can base the economy on. It reminds me of the old line about fusion power; it's 10 years away from commercially viable and it always will be. Or the even older line that nuclear power will be too cheap to meter. Still waiting for that industry to get by without massive subsidies.

  • beef

    my question – when is the data from and do you have a link to the paper it goes with? i know you use what you have but the source speaks of 1989 and 2007. it's nice to be able to see the thought process/interpretation behind the graph.

    i don;t believe there is a west berlin anymore. :)

  • andysilber

    They aren't really self-contained. The bring in energy, usually in the form of natural gas. It would be more efficient and cheaper to have a natural gas powered internal combustion engine instead of a hydrogen-fuel cell. Natural gas is easier to store/transport and burns fairly cleanly and efficiently.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    Here's a plan for one that's really self-contained. Sure it costs $3M and can only fill 10-15 cars a day… Let's see, assuming a 20 year life and no profit that's only $33 a day to fill your tank! What a bargain!

  • morganba

    Let's not forget that directing solar to split water directly competes with (is supplementary to) efforts to replace fossil fuel based production with solar energy production, which we're not showing we're capable of doing.

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    What part of “self contained” is incomprehensible to you?

    “SunHydro to build 11 hydrogen fueling stations, 1 near Richmond

    http://projectstir.com/blog/?p=278

    It doesn’t get any greener than hydrogen.

    Once cars fuel up with the gas, which is created when solar power splits water into oxygen and hydrogen, the only byproduct is pure H2O.”

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    Yeah, those Apple IIc's and IBM PCs running Windows used to cost thousands of dollars.

    But all those companies never went anywhere…right?

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    There are two issues with self-contained hydrogen stations that Apple and IBM never had to deal with.

    1. Cost of PV solar. We've been trying to ride down the cost curve for 40 years now. Yes, solar is cheaper than it used to be. But it won't get much chaper until we see a major breakthrough in efficiency for thin film. Better solar technologies like CSP are inappropriatly large for filling stations.

    2. They can only fill 10-15 cars because they are size limited. To be able to fill the tens of thousands they'd need to fill to compete with fuel filling stations they'd need to be thousands of times as large. This isn't even about efficincy – there's only so much solar power that lands on each filling station sized piece of the earth.

    Hydrogen is a red herring created by the oil industry to stop California from requiring electric cars.

  • http://carfreedays.com/ Anne

    We can argue all day about electric vs. hydrogen vs.gas vs fuel cell. We think driving a (insert fuel efficient car) is the solution.

    The root cause of our energy consumption problem in America is not the type of fuel we use, it's our behavior. We (Americans) like to drive…. because it's easy and relatively cheap. And we want “alternative transportation” to be just as easy and cheap.

    American cities will be at the top of that chart until we embrace compact communities and leave our cars at home from time to time.

  • morning fizzy

    The obvious keys are the age of the city, the density (comes with age) and the control of the government (Singapore, Hong Kong and Moscow).

    The most interesting part of the chart are the Australian cities which are the most similar in age, density and freedom to us.

    A basic question is: why we are getting so much growth when the other cities are so much better than we are? It would seem this is a problem, because people don't want to stay or move to those dense environmentally sound cities.

    Here locally, do you support the LR plan? Overlay the ST plan on any of these cities and it becomes clear that the ST plan doesn't reduce sprawl in encourages it.

    It is interesting that Seattle is to the left of LA – we are less dense than LA and we are building both roads and LR that will make it highly unlikely that we will gaining on them anytime soon.

  • Bill_in_Central_District

    thank you. I-5, 405 and 90. High speed rail with transit hub stops only. better solution than trying to rebuild the region as one dense city.

    probably easier than getting those MSFT bound Seattites to move to Remond too.

  • andysilber

    Actually people do like living in dense areas. Just look at Belltown and downtown Kirkland to see high density neighborhoods that are attracting lots of people.

  • bill

    YIKES! Pioneer Square garage offers free parking for First Thursday

    The Pioneer Square Community Association is piloting a new program called “Parking for Peanuts.” Starting this Thursday, May 6th, Merrill Place Garage will provide free parking for people who come down to participate in First Thursday.

    Damn artists, NIMBYs all!!!

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    “No one goes there any more; it's too crowded” -Yogi Berra

  • morning fizzy

    Where do you think DT Kirkland and Belltown would be on the graph?

    Dan isn't talking about cities with the core densest area at 10k per sq mile – he's talking about cities with overall densities of 25K+

    The concept of density that “works” is not enclaves of 10,000 people in one square mile – it contiguous areas of 25K per sq. mile.

    Queens has a density of 21K Manhattan has 70K.

    The European cities have twice the density of NYC.

    DT Kirkland isn't even on the dense scale.

  • andysilber

    My point is the dense neighborhoods can be attractive places to live, not that two dense neighborhoods means that Seattle is dense.

    If you look at Washington DC and Paris (two transit friendly cities) it's not filled with high-rises like Manhattan or Belltown, but the kind of density you see in Capitol Hill: less than ten stories, often with retail on the ground floor.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    “why we are getting so much growth when the other cities are so much better than we are?” Which of these cities are slowing down growth? I know European countries are slowing down or even reversing in population thanks to a slower birthrate in rich nations, but I'm not aware of any major cities getting less dense.

    Loooking at the top few: Hong Kong's leveling off, but is still at around 1% per year. Moscow's population crashed allong with the USSR, but is positive again. Tokyo just topped 13M people and is growing rapidly despite Japan's shrinking population.

    Globally, we just passed 50% of population in towns and cities. This trend started back with industrialization and is expected to continue.

  • morning fizzy

    Capitol Hill has a density under 10K per sq. mile. My point is that we won't achieve the energy efficient density by having Capitol Hills spotted all over the region. Our current transit investments will not result in energy efficient density.

    DC has an average density greater than Cap Hill's. So what transit and what else do we need to do to get to that density.

  • morning fizzy

    http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/w…

    third world cities are growing but large cities in the first world are stagnant among the larger ones.

    smaller cities with lower density are growing faster.

  • giffy

    I'm not sure you really make the case there. If cars where as efficient per mile as trains or buses then the North American cities would be much lower on the graph.

    I'll grant its a question as to whether that is possible, but assuming it were, we would be as low as them on the graph.

    The reality is that Europe developed at time when transportation was slow whereas the US did so when it was fast. While long term we can and should move toward density there is zero chance it will happen in time to do much of anything about global warming. Those suburbs are not going to disappear nor are the vast rural stretches of this country. You cannot re-engineer a countries land use in a couple decades no matter how many train lines you build.

    We can invest in transit and it is part of the solution, but without cars that at least are carbon neutral we are not going to solve this problem.

  • giffy

    Per their website one fill can get 400 miles.
    http://www.sunhydro.com/hydrogen.php

    Lets say you get half of that or 200. Thats about 16.5 cents a mile. My current car gets about 25 miles to the gallon and a gallon of gas costs about 3.10 or about 12.4 cents a mile and thats at current prices. If we can get that 400 a fill we're only talking 8.25 cents a mile.

    So while its a bit spendy now, with oil prices increasing it won't take much to make it quite affordable. And remember we subsidize oil.

  • http://www.bettertransport.info/ JohnNiles

    The graphic makes a basic point as is, but it's too old — over two decades — to be discussed in detail. Transportation patterns have changed a lot in Europe, for sure. Houston has light rail now, and Moscow has a lot more cars.

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    Yeah, it's like those computers that Babbage used to build out of steam engines. Computers…sheesh…as if that ever happened!

  • http://spifflines.blogspot.com/ John Bailo

    Would you rather bet on failed battery technology that still isn't any better than a Ray-O-Vac D cell for a 1960s style toy robot?

  • debeddy

    Energy, transportation and land use … reminds me of those multi-variable algebraic equations that used to make me crazy. Dan, has anyone done a serious comparison of those Aussie cities and US cities, looking at — among other things — presumptions about private property, bases and locus of land use authority, that type of thing?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=10741618 Steven Gomez

    You're preaching to the choir, Dan. The people you need to reach are over in the rest of the planet.

  • http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ Mr. Baker

    As soon as mass transit can get my 19 mile commute down from its current 90 minute door-to-door one way, North Seattle to South Everett, I'll think about your bullshit, Dan. Until then I will be driving the least polluting vehicle that serves my NEEDS, and not upzone your mass transit to pretty up your upzones.

    Why do ws commute should be the question being asked, not how do you want to commute.

  • andysilber

    Babbage? You're bringing up Babbage? Is you're point 150 years after his work computers were cheap enough for large corporations and the goverment and 175 years after his work many people had them in their home?

    Yes, often technology becomes cheaper over time. And often it doesn't (e.g. fusion, flying cars, jet packs). One can't base policy assuming there's a technlogical breakthrough, and that's what is needed for the hydrogen economy to become real (a gas station that can serve 20 cars a day isn't real, it's an experiement). It will take lots of hard work, private investment and goverment policy (e.g. carbon tax, incentives) before fuel cell cars become a reality and even then the breakthroughs just might not happen.

  • demboskb

    Curious…I think you just made Dan's point for him. In the last paragraph he sums it up — efficient modes of transportation can only go so far. We also need urban planning that encourages walking and biking to reduce our dependence on any kind of (automotive) transit. That's what he's calling for, not upzoning mass transit…

  • Grover

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVRUBIyRAYk

    Here is a video of a Moscow Subway station. Is this how you want to live? Or you just want to force everyone else to live this way?

    Here's an idea: Instead of a million more people moving to our area in the next decades, why don't those million people move to Moscow, Russia? They would use a lot less energy living in Moscow.

    I thoroughly detest people who would like to force everyone to live a disgusting life style like those poor souls in Moscow.

    If you are truly worried about energy consumption, you should be concentrating on stopping, and then reversing, population growth. As long as the human population keeps increasing, no meaningful reduction in world-wide energy consumption is going to occur, without major reductions in most peoples' standard of living.

  • ktstine

    Dan great post. As always my main concern is about “equitable” dense development. Above you said “The end result is a balanced, equitable, energy-efficient urban transportation system.” More density around high capacity transit will not automatically equal more affordability. Cap Hill is a great example of this. Unless we find a way to lock in affordability, land use around stations will intensely gentrify neighborhoods, and poor people will be continually pushed farther and farther out to the suburbs and less well served urban areas. And these are the people who make up the retail and service cores of places like Cap Hill. We have to find a way to ensure that more density = more affordability. AND THIS IS NOT SIMPLY ABOUT INCREASED SUPPLY. Sorry, I had to capitalize because I am so so tired of hearing this argument in Seattle. If you understand anything about land use economics it is that high priced land (due to location) does not equal affordable units…unless your City provides 1) deep subsidy (i.e. Housing Levy dollars) or 2) regulatory requirements for affordability in the private market. Do I dare utter the words, inclusionary zoning?

  • ktstine

    And this reminds me that eliminating parking won't create affordability either, because the money not spent on parking will go to developer profits and not lower priced units.

  • Greg Pickles

    That's heresy. Of course it's also obviously true.

  • Gontumono

    There simply isn't enough sunlight falling on the US each day to fuel a solar transportation infrastructure unless we roofed the whole country with solar cells.

  • joshuadf

    I realize Richard Florida can be an annoying guy, but he talks about commuting in this recent podcast:
    http://www.smartcityradio.com/show/2810/the-met…
    The “incredible separation between home and work … is not supportable anymore.” I'm not sure if it's a real story, but he tells of someone quitting on their first day due to the commute.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    I bet on dense cities removing the need for as much car use. Cars will still exist, and be either Lithium based or something better, but won't be as prevalent. Your Tri-cities will have to densify as well, and perhaps be connected by train.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    [Gont] well that's not true either. PV solar isn't a terrible technology, it just isn't as efficient as other technologies out there. Reduced use almost always is a better strategy than replacing our massive needs with alternative fuels.

    [giffy] I only factored in first cost. You'll also need station attendants, and pay for the real estate (that's a lot of real estate for 10-15 cars), plus maintenance, plus replacing the anodes and cathodes regularly (platinum is pricey), plus profit, etc. Plus my internet sources are telling me 200 gallons a tank is more reasonable.

  • giffy

    That is simply not true. Based on current technology we could generate the same BTUs we use now form all sources solely from solar with a farm about 1300 sq miles. The US has about 3.5 million square miles of land.

    Not that we should do that. We need a multiple technology approach, but we could do it. This seems like a technology that can help. There is no reason to wait for something that can do everything.

  • morning fizzy

    aggressive transit investments..

    And they need to be smart and cost effective. We are spending plenty of money, but we are not doing it a way that will produce the ends you promote.

    LR is not a transit system here, it is commuter rail system that encourages sprawl. Streetcars are 5 times or more expensive than what a modern electric bus costs and the new buses (Vancouver & SF) have low floors and can operate just like a streetcar.

    The streetcars are expensive toys that don't play well with bikes or electric buses.

  • joshuadf

    I'd love new modern ETBs. Where is the initiative for me to sign for a new dedicated MVET to ETBs?

  • morning fizzy

    No, no, no you do the initiative! -;)

    The state legislature would have to pass a law allowing the tax, unless they have already put it on the books.

    If you really care about ETB (rubber-tired streetcars), you need to apy attention because Metro is making noise about converting the current lines to diesel.

    Go check out some of the newer models and their interiors.

    http://www.tbus.org.uk/models.htm

    The Wright Streetcar is only running in a hybrid mode, but the Brits just funded a 230M EU all electric system.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    “I am so so tired of hearing this argument in Seattle” Sorry, but you're going to keep hearing it until you use better arguments.

    Simplified scenerio: 100,000 people would like to live in a certain neighborhood, but there are 50,000 homes. The richest 50% get these homes, yes? Now build another 20,000 homes. Now the richest 70% get these homes. Isn't that increasing affordability?

    Why it seems like the world doesn't work this way is that you're focusing on those new 20,000 homes. They're expensive because they're new, and the richest 20% are the ones that bought them. But the old condos right next door all went down in price as soon as the new condos opened their doors. It has to work this way or those 20,000 less rich people couldn't move in.

    It's simple supply and demand, and it can't be dismissed by using all caps.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    The only way for this to be true is if there were so few developers in a market that they could form something like a monopoly. Otherwise the developer down the street that takes less profit can sell his homes for less, and you're stuck with no sales.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    “I thoroughly detest people who would like to force everyone to live a disgusting life style like those poor souls in Moscow.” I think you deserve the straw man of the week award.

    A) Nobody is proposing we force anyone to do anything. There are many ways to add density, starting with removing our subsidies for cars. That just forces people to live like this: (insert video of 48-car pile-up here).

    B) I'm sure the “poor souls in Moscow” would disagree with you. To be sure, let's move our focus to one of the many large cities that have never been sociallist. Try Mumbai. 13.6 M people, each with freedom of choice to live elsewhere. Are they being forced to live in that terrible condition of a mega-city? No, you'll see housing prices in Mumbai much higher than those in surrounding towns because people prefer to live in the city. The same is true for Seattle.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    Interesting. Thanks for the link, I learned a lot. It's almost like there's a natural city size that cities trent towards – somewhere between 2M and 10M.

    I wonder if this trend will continue after peak oil. Will the world's cities become more dense for transportation efficiency?

  • Anc

    Never been to Moscow, but either there were a f#ckton of tourists in there, or that was not a normal situation (notice all the arms up with people taking cellphone pictures and all the flashes going off).

  • http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com Gomez

    I temp, and I'll turn down job assignments if I see the commute is going to be too long (e.g. in my case, that's requiring I get up before 6 am or require more than 60 minutes of transit commuting).

    The reason we have such sprawl and so many cars on the road is because others aren't willing to do the same. No, it's not easy and sure you may cost yourself some opportunities by drawing a line. But the commute should be a bigger factor in prospective employment and in choosing where to live than it is. Maybe it wasn't a problem 30 years ago, but it is now.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    I was recently out of work for 8 months, and didn't look* for a job outside of a 20 minute drive. I ended up working 3 miles from home. I firmly believe a long commute is a waste of life, and a short commute is very valuable to me.

    * Could afford not to look. I admit this would have been different if I were about to lose my house or couldn't afford to feed my family.

  • ktstine

    Matt the Engineer, I'm not sure your analysis is any more sophisticated than mine. Not sure what real estate market you live in, but I have not experienced older condos decreasing in value simply because something new opened next door. The opposite is actually true and Capitol Hill is an example of this. As the real estate market skyrocketed, price points dramatically increased for all product, not just new product. Everything increased proportionally, as the neighborhood became more desirable in many different ways (proximity to downtown, Cal Anderson Park, booming biz districts of Pike Pine and 12th Ave) And Light Rail will simply be another wonderful amenity for the neighborhood that will make it desirable to live here, which is great, but only if we can find tools to create long-term affordability in both the rental and home-ownership markets.

    What I am arguing for here (radical to you it seems) is a means to make some of that new product affordable, because I actually believe that low-income people should get to live in top of the Light Rail Station too, without a car and in a walkable neighborhood within distance to their job. And in my opinion one of the things that needs to be explored to make this happen is inclusionary zoning, which has been practiced very successfully in high priced markets like Boston for years.

    This would require each private developer to include a certain percentage of affordable units in every new development around the Light Rail Station or in a certain overlay district. These units wouldn't have to have the same finishes and could be located on lower floors (i.e. no views) of a building but this kind of requirement would create greater access to the type of car-free sustainable living that Dan espouses so passionately here. The simple truth now is that this isn't readily possible for many low-income workers in neighborhoods like Capitol Hill, because they were gentrified out years ago when both rents and for sale prices of houses in this neighborhood rose so dramatically.

  • 14ft8in

    Great article and very informative! Way to go!

  • http://www.14ft8in.com Jonathan Lemons

    Great article and very informative! Way to go!

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    I completely agree with using tools to allow for affordabile housing, and would consider inclusionary zoning. But you've claimed (in all caps) that increased supply does not decrease prices, a clear violation of simple and immutable economic principles.

    “Not sure what real estate market you live in, but I have not experienced older condos decreasing in value simply because something new opened next door.” The real estate market I live in has had demand increasing faster than supply. This is like opening a 1/2″ hole at the bottom of a bucket, but pouring in a 2″ diameter water stream at the top – the level goes up. Prices increase as more people are willing to spend more money in desirable locations. Increasing supply works against this, but with our zoning laws it hasn't worked strong enough. Remember that the population of our region has increased at a faster rate than Seattle. That's not because all of these new people don't want to live in Seattle, it's because we won't let them in. Somewhere online is a great poster from Seattle back when we were tightening up our zoning laws that shows crowded run-down garageless rowhouses with a caption along the lines of “These could be your neighbors.” The scare tactics worked, and we're still paying for that fear.

  • Bill_in_Central_District

    “increased supply does not decrease prices, a clear violation of simple and immutable economic principles.”

    Matt, following your example on Cap Hill of 50K homes, if you could add 20K homes to the pool simultaneously, you would see price impact. But realistically they will come in at a rate that they have been, or optimistically double or triple that, which will have no discernible impact to the general supply.

  • eddiew

    another factor not mentioned in the original post or the comments is the land cost of car storage. as cities density, land values rise and parking costs rise even faster. the opportunity cost of devoting land or garages to car storage becomes higher. so, land value goes in the direction as global warming in leading cities to invest in the pedestrian, transit, and bicycle modes. several years ago, Jemae Hoffman, SDOT, developed some telling slides about the garage capacity necessary in downtown Seattle if new commuters were not handled by other modes than the SOV. in their traffic studies, both WSDOT and PSRC assume that the cost of parking will increase faster than the general price level.

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    Exactly. At the rate they've been coming in it's hard to see the effect, because other effects are larger. This is why people like [ktstine] don't believe in the effect – it's hard to see directly. But the effect is there.

    Triple the construction on Cap Hill, and it'll be hard to see the effect in the first year, and maybe the second year. After that, if nothing strange happens in the economy, it will become more and more obvious.

  • Ted

    From the Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/city/mu…

    “According to the report, more than half of Mumbai’s population lives in sub-human conditions in shanties, but the land that slums are situated on comprise just 6% of the city’s total land area. “Is there justification to continue calling this city, once the London of the east, the Urbs Prima in India? Given the levels of deprivation and the size of deprived population, it would be natural to ask, ‘Whose city is Mumbai, anyway?’,’’ the report says caustically.”

  • Matt_the_Engineer

    Yes, I should have been more cautious before calling Mumbai the model of anything. But have you seen the slums outside Mumbai? Most of India is quite poor, from my experience. My only point was that even those in these slums would rather live in the city slums than the slums outside the city – I would imagine the rent on a sub-human city slums are higher than the suburban slums.