The Latest in the Mayor's Race: End Game Approaching

This is very good news for Mike. Gaining 700 votes in a day is a lot of progress. I believe this is about 50K additional votes from yesterday, which means mcginn took about 50.7% of today’s count.

Good news for the McGinn camp. And good news for those of us prone to anxiety and high blood pressure.

extra bonus for mcginn is that this takes it out of the recount zone (for now).

b/c you need <2000 vote diff and <.5% diff

so if he can hold steady Mallahands will have to hit up his donors to pay for a recount. odds of that happening? pretty good unless the gap widens.

This is very good news for Mike. Gaining 700 votes in a day is a lot of progress. I believe this is about 50K additional votes from yesterday, which means mcginn took about 50.7% of today’s count.

Good news for the McGinn camp. And good news for those of us prone to anxiety and high blood pressure.

extra bonus for mcginn is that this takes it out of the recount zone (for now).

b/c you need <2000 vote diff and <.5% diff

so if he can hold steady Mallahands will have to hit up his donors to pay for a recount. odds of that happening? pretty good unless the gap widens.

Looks like McGinn’s camp was correct that the second batch would trend Mallahan and thereafter for McGinn. If the gap widens any further, I’d have to say this is over.

Great news for McGinn.

Holmes at 62.95% – could be the biggest margin over an incumbent ever. Of course, most lose in a primary.

Looks like McGinn’s camp was correct that the second batch would trend Mallahan and thereafter for McGinn. If the gap widens any further, I’d have to say this is over.

Great news for McGinn.

Holmes at 62.95% – could be the biggest margin over an incumbent ever. Of course, most lose in a primary.

I can see the establishment lining up outside Mike’s door now.

Good point about the recount zone and hugely good news for McGinn today. Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?

I can see the establishment lining up outside Mike’s door now.

Good point about the recount zone and hugely good news for McGinn today. Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?

I’d say that it is all over, barring a miracle.

Mayor McGinn will be sworn in just in time for the start of the business exodus and the revival of the secessionist movement in West Seattle.

Should be an entertaining four years of chaos.

I’d say that it is all over, barring a miracle.

Mayor McGinn will be sworn in just in time for the start of the business exodus and the revival of the secessionist movement in West Seattle.

Should be an entertaining four years of chaos.

Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?

Yes.

There can’t be a recount until there’s a certified “final” count. Those that haven’t been verified as of some point prior to 11/24 will be taken up on that date by the Canvassing Board, which adjudicates all such issues.

See King County’s results schedule.

Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?

Yes.

There can’t be a recount until there’s a certified “final” count. Those that haven’t been verified as of some point prior to 11/24 will be taken up on that date by the Canvassing Board, which adjudicates all such issues.

See King County’s results schedule.

@6, they are lining up at Conlin’s door, no matter who wins.

Sounds like McGinn’s GOV operation is bearing fruit. However, I’m sure Mallahan can find the $$$ to pay for a recount even if the margin’s outside the recount zone.

@6, they are lining up at Conlin’s door, no matter who wins.

Sounds like McGinn’s GOV operation is bearing fruit. However, I’m sure Mallahan can find the $$$ to pay for a recount even if the margin’s outside the recount zone.

@7

King County Elections won’t officially certify the results of this race (or any other, for that matter), until after Nov 23rd. I’m assuming that those pending ballots would need to be resolved before then if they are to be counted, but you might want to check with them, because I could be wrong.

@7

King County Elections won’t officially certify the results of this race (or any other, for that matter), until after Nov 23rd. I’m assuming that those pending ballots would need to be resolved before then if they are to be counted, but you might want to check with them, because I could be wrong.

I wonder if there is no trend at all with the votes, but just random fluctuation. The first sample (the first night’s total) showed McGinn winning by a smidge over 1%. Now, it is a smidge under 1%. If McGinn wins by 1%, then each sample could just be considered a random sample. Does this make sense to those who know more about statistics than me? Are there any statisticians in the house?

I wonder if there is no trend at all with the votes, but just random fluctuation. The first sample (the first night’s total) showed McGinn winning by a smidge over 1%. Now, it is a smidge under 1%. If McGinn wins by 1%, then each sample could just be considered a random sample. Does this make sense to those who know more about statistics than me? Are there any statisticians in the house?

Jarvis, I don’t think a recount is permitted unless the margin is within the RCW limits. No matter how much money somebody may have.

You may be thinking of the pre-2005 rules, where the Democrats did have to ask for, and pay for, the second, manual recount. They got there money back when the outcome was reversed.

Jarvis, I don’t think a recount is permitted unless the margin is within the RCW limits. No matter how much money somebody may have.

You may be thinking of the pre-2005 rules, where the Democrats did have to ask for, and pay for, the second, manual recount. They got there money back when the outcome was reversed.

Argh… their money back

Argh… their money back

There’s a bunch more to be counted tomorrow, right?

There’s a bunch more to be counted tomorrow, right?

Oh, no, tonight.

Oh, no, tonight.

There are at least 32,463 more ballots that aren’t counted yet. Any that trickled in today are in addition to that.

There are at least 32,463 more ballots that aren’t counted yet. Any that trickled in today are in addition to that.

Well, if the lead stretches McGinn’s way again with tonight’s drop, he can probably bag it. But then again, the signature-rejected ballots alone will probably trigger Act III of the recount/legal saga that began with Bush/Gore in 2000 and continued with Gregoire/Rossi in 2004… because we can’t go five years without one of these ballot-legality in-a-close-race snafus.

Being a compelling, charismatic candidate short on bullshit and high on amiable centrism, of course, would have solved the problem in any of those cases, because then it’s not close enough for it to matter.

Well, if the lead stretches McGinn’s way again with tonight’s drop, he can probably bag it. But then again, the signature-rejected ballots alone will probably trigger Act III of the recount/legal saga that began with Bush/Gore in 2000 and continued with Gregoire/Rossi in 2004… because we can’t go five years without one of these ballot-legality in-a-close-race snafus.

Being a compelling, charismatic candidate short on bullshit and high on amiable centrism, of course, would have solved the problem in any of those cases, because then it’s not close enough for it to matter.

@14 I think a recount can be paid for if the percentage is < 1% once it gets to be < .5% it is automatic machine and <.25% it becomes automatic manual

that is my understanding.

@14 I think a recount can be paid for if the percentage is < 1% once it gets to be < .5% it is automatic machine and <.25% it becomes automatic manual

that is my understanding.

19: Don’t forget Cantwell-Gorton. That one was extremely close as well (it flopped back and forth during the counting of the absentees).

19: Don’t forget Cantwell-Gorton. That one was extremely close as well (it flopped back and forth during the counting of the absentees).

Ah yes, you’re right Ross. Make this Act IV then… unless we consider Cantwell/Gorton a prequel ;P

Ah yes, you’re right Ross. Make this Act IV then… unless we consider Cantwell/Gorton a prequel ;P

True Ross, but there were a helluva lot more ballots to count for that statewide race.

True Ross, but there were a helluva lot more ballots to count for that statewide race.

Where is Stacey x3?

Where is Stacey x3?

Any comments from those suggesting McGinn supporters should have been terrified after Wednesday’s numbers because of some mysterious “trend”?

Any comments from those suggesting McGinn supporters should have been terrified after Wednesday’s numbers because of some mysterious “trend”?

Hey, everybody, once those last-minute, driven-to-Seatac votes are counted and McGinn’s lead is padded all the more, let’s file “proven ability to organize an effective GOV drive that’s entirely volunteer-driven” under Management Experience.

Hey, everybody, once those last-minute, driven-to-Seatac votes are counted and McGinn’s lead is padded all the more, let’s file “proven ability to organize an effective GOV drive that’s entirely volunteer-driven” under Management Experience.

@26 And don’t forget “ability to win election while spending 1/3 the amount of opponent”.

@26 And don’t forget “ability to win election while spending 1/3 the amount of opponent”.

this is holy shit massive. i’m not a fan, but establishment folks in seattle have to be shitting themselves.

it’ll be interesting to see if Mr. anti-establishment sticks it to them or eventually becomes part of the machine.

this is holy shit massive. i’m not a fan, but establishment folks in seattle have to be shitting themselves.

it’ll be interesting to see if Mr. anti-establishment sticks it to them or eventually becomes part of the machine.

@28 Since he’s so much like Obama, I kinda worry he may overstate his progressivism, but I’m hopeful he’ll stay true to that community organizer and volunteer-driven campaign spirit he’s got going for him.

@28 Since he’s so much like Obama, I kinda worry he may overstate his progressivism, but I’m hopeful he’ll stay true to that community organizer and volunteer-driven campaign spirit he’s got going for him.

Dow’s up to 58.33%, bitches! Plus 5,747 people so pissed of at Sue Rahr for voluntarily being in the same room with the bitchy newsreader that they wrote in “anyone but.”

Dow’s up to 58.33%, bitches! Plus 5,747 people so pissed of at Sue Rahr for voluntarily being in the same room with the bitchy newsreader that they wrote in “anyone but.”

Susan just said she’ll concede if it hits 60%.

Susan just said she’ll concede if it hits 60%.

@24: Stacyx3 is out searching for ballots in drop boxes.

@24: Stacyx3 is out searching for ballots in drop boxes.

Second ballot drop has been made. McGinn now over 50%.

Second ballot drop has been made. McGinn now over 50%.

McGinn lead almost doubled, to 2384.

McGinn lead almost doubled, to 2384.

McGinn got over 53% of the new votes.

McGinn got over 53% of the new votes.

Yep, more than 2000 puts this beyond recount.

The council is already making its power grab.

This is going to be an ugly transition.

Yep, more than 2000 puts this beyond recount.

The council is already making its power grab.

This is going to be an ugly transition.

@36: Nope, they’re undoing a power grab that Nickels made when he transposed his authority at the Port into the Mayor’s office.

Trust me when I say that the council’s posturing was not an attack on McGinn, but more akin to someone stretching out after a huge weight was lifted off their shoulders.

I wouldn’t say they disliked Nickels, but he neutered them in some aspects, which is why Drago stepped into the fray and they basically bit him in the tuchus after the snowpocalypse.

Holmes, though, I can’t tell what direction the city administration is going to go with that. That might get a bit ugly.

@36: Nope, they’re undoing a power grab that Nickels made when he transposed his authority at the Port into the Mayor’s office.

Trust me when I say that the council’s posturing was not an attack on McGinn, but more akin to someone stretching out after a huge weight was lifted off their shoulders.

I wouldn’t say they disliked Nickels, but he neutered them in some aspects, which is why Drago stepped into the fray and they basically bit him in the tuchus after the snowpocalypse.

Holmes, though, I can’t tell what direction the city administration is going to go with that. That might get a bit ugly.

Council, dang it.

I think I’m bitter about picking the wrong guy for the port.

Council, dang it.

I think I’m bitter about picking the wrong guy for the port.

If there were some way I could tie my extreme loathing of the lying sack of shit that is Kathi Lambert into this thread, I would do it.

If there were some way I could tie my extreme loathing of the lying sack of shit that is Kathi Lambert into this thread, I would do it.