The Latest in the Mayor's Race

This needs to be settled with a walk-off.

This needs to be settled with a walk-off.

Funny how nobody calls it a “statistical dead heat” when it’s an actual election.

Funny how nobody calls it a “statistical dead heat” when it’s an actual election.

Interesting that while McGinn gained 53 votes, Mallahan increased his percentage of the vote. Go figure.

Interesting that while McGinn gained 53 votes, Mallahan increased his percentage of the vote. Go figure.

Ah…because elections and polls are entirely different things.

Ah…because elections and polls are entirely different things.

With luck, there’ll have a mayor by the new year…

With luck, there’ll have a mayor by the new year…

Where is Dean Logan when he is needed?

ugh mcginn is a tool. he’ll try to ban cars. i guess publicola would like that though so go Mikey!

“4,700 ballots have been challenged”

By whom?

Where is Dean Logan when he is needed?

ugh mcginn is a tool. he’ll try to ban cars. i guess publicola would like that though so go Mikey!

“4,700 ballots have been challenged”

By whom?

At this rate, sounds like KC Elections will be at this for at least 3 more days, which takes us at least through next Tuesday, and I believe next Wednesday is a government holiday…

At this rate, sounds like KC Elections will be at this for at least 3 more days, which takes us at least through next Tuesday, and I believe next Wednesday is a government holiday…

@7

Trevor, elections goes through each ballot and does a signature match. If they don’t remotely match, they are ‘disputed.’ You can go online and see if your ballot is one of these.

I imagine that both Team Mallahan and Team McGinn are gathering their lawyers for a potential legal challenge.

Good thing McGinn is a lawyer! May know a guy or two…

According the KC website, they’ll be posting results next Wednesday so I don’t think we have to worry about any holidays.

@7

Trevor, elections goes through each ballot and does a signature match. If they don’t remotely match, they are ‘disputed.’ You can go online and see if your ballot is one of these.

I imagine that both Team Mallahan and Team McGinn are gathering their lawyers for a potential legal challenge.

Good thing McGinn is a lawyer! May know a guy or two…

According the KC website, they’ll be posting results next Wednesday so I don’t think we have to worry about any holidays.

In the 2004 election, the State Dems got the list of challenged ballots so that they could contact Democrats and get them to go into the elections office to verify the ballot is their’s.

That was the margin of victory.

@7, by the election officials comparing the signature on the ballot to the signature on file.

In the 2004 election, the State Dems got the list of challenged ballots so that they could contact Democrats and get them to go into the elections office to verify the ballot is their’s.

That was the margin of victory.

@7, by the election officials comparing the signature on the ballot to the signature on file.

not a tie and not a virtual tie either because one side wins with even a one vote difference, this isn’t horseshoes or nuclear war.

oh and btw….what if it IS a tie?

coin flip or bike race?

not a tie and not a virtual tie either because one side wins with even a one vote difference, this isn’t horseshoes or nuclear war.

oh and btw….what if it IS a tie?

coin flip or bike race?

“the list of challenged ballots”

Has that been released this time? I suspect people will want to know that their voices have been heard…

“the list of challenged ballots”

Has that been released this time? I suspect people will want to know that their voices have been heard…

@4 The point is that it would mean just as much — i.e. nothing at all — to call the actual returns a “statistical dead heat” as it does when reporters describe poll results that way.

@4 The point is that it would mean just as much — i.e. nothing at all — to call the actual returns a “statistical dead heat” as it does when reporters describe poll results that way.

Alex,
The full list is not released unless you fill out a form & request it. If you’re name is on the list you receive a letter & a phone call from KC Elections informing you what the problem is (unsigned ballot, signature doesn’t match, etc) & how to fix it.

Alex,
The full list is not released unless you fill out a form & request it. If you’re name is on the list you receive a letter & a phone call from KC Elections informing you what the problem is (unsigned ballot, signature doesn’t match, etc) & how to fix it.

Does King County contact challenged voters?

Does King County contact challenged voters?

Erica, thank you for pointing out the inanity of trying to divine a “trend” out of these tiny wobbles from day to day.

If there are 4700 ballots waiting for another attempt at voter verification, that could certainly flip the eventual outcome. Hell, just about anything could in this “statistical dead heat”.

Erica, thank you for pointing out the inanity of trying to divine a “trend” out of these tiny wobbles from day to day.

If there are 4700 ballots waiting for another attempt at voter verification, that could certainly flip the eventual outcome. Hell, just about anything could in this “statistical dead heat”.

I think the only thing we can comfortably predict from these drops is that there’s probably going to be a recount for this race.

I think the only thing we can comfortably predict from these drops is that there’s probably going to be a recount for this race.

@17 – yes, the county does contact people whose ballots are “challenged” – meaning that their signature was a mismatch or they forgot to sign their envelope

@11,@14,@16 – the campaigns can (and almost certainly have) requested the list of challenged ballots from the county so they can contact any those folks whom they believe to be their supporters by mail, phone, and doorbelling so they can revalidate their ballots with an affidavit and a copy of their ID.

@11 – in ’04 SEIU came up with this strategy in the Gregoire race & provided the volunteers to contact voters. With most of SEIU sitting out the mayor’s race to focus on 1033 & Constantine, it seems like McGinn’s larger field volunteer base would give him the upper hand in ballot rehabilitation.

@17 – yes, the county does contact people whose ballots are “challenged” – meaning that their signature was a mismatch or they forgot to sign their envelope

@11,@14,@16 – the campaigns can (and almost certainly have) requested the list of challenged ballots from the county so they can contact any those folks whom they believe to be their supporters by mail, phone, and doorbelling so they can revalidate their ballots with an affidavit and a copy of their ID.

@11 – in ’04 SEIU came up with this strategy in the Gregoire race & provided the volunteers to contact voters. With most of SEIU sitting out the mayor’s race to focus on 1033 & Constantine, it seems like McGinn’s larger field volunteer base would give him the upper hand in ballot rehabilitation.

“McGinn’s larger field volunteer base”

how many more volunteers does McGinn have?

“McGinn’s larger field volunteer base”

how many more volunteers does McGinn have?

But, is McGinn still “the Conservative Choice?”

But, is McGinn still “the Conservative Choice?”

wait i thought mallahan was the conservative choice? seattle politics are so cofusing. we need erica and josh to apply their genius minds to ‘splainin it for us!

wait i thought mallahan was the conservative choice? seattle politics are so cofusing. we need erica and josh to apply their genius minds to ‘splainin it for us!

I think it is just funny as hell that with all of his money and “insiders, if you will” Mallahan did not walk away with this.

I hope McGinn’s lead only increases and increases.

I think it is just funny as hell that with all of his money and “insiders, if you will” Mallahan did not walk away with this.

I hope McGinn’s lead only increases and increases.

McGinn may be a lawyer and know other lawyers, but Mallahan’s access to just about anybody he might need is guaranteed, because he’s the one they want to win.

McGinn may be a lawyer and know other lawyers, but Mallahan’s access to just about anybody he might need is guaranteed, because he’s the one they want to win.

Plus he’s prolly a Freemason and you know how they are. Honestly, people.

Plus he’s prolly a Freemason and you know how they are. Honestly, people.

@25

Sorry sarah, but his access to “just about anybody” is likely a bit limited. Given that many of Mallahan’s more well resourced supporters have maxed out, they can’t provided anything else of value to his campaign.

I wonder if the guy’s campaign can even make payroll, let alone retain top legal talent, given how large their debt is…

@25

Sorry sarah, but his access to “just about anybody” is likely a bit limited. Given that many of Mallahan’s more well resourced supporters have maxed out, they can’t provided anything else of value to his campaign.

I wonder if the guy’s campaign can even make payroll, let alone retain top legal talent, given how large their debt is…

23. Fiscally, yes. Socially, not so much.

23. Fiscally, yes. Socially, not so much.

This article at the SeattlePI is very concerning. Apparently 860 ballots were compromised (perhaps ballot-stuffing?) Thursday night.

Why these ballots weren’t collected earlier is beyond me, and something that Sherril Huff needs to answer for. But this screw up alone could force the election into a protracted lawsuit.

This article at the SeattlePI is very concerning. Apparently 860 ballots were compromised (perhaps ballot-stuffing?) Thursday night.

Why these ballots weren’t collected earlier is beyond me, and something that Sherril Huff needs to answer for. But this screw up alone could force the election into a protracted lawsuit.

you’re right this is incredibly lame.

more investigative reporting please.

do they really NOT collect ballots at the deadline? they really leave the box there for a few days so any idiot can drop off more ballots?

And Horsey makes fun of Sutherners?~?

Very dogpatchy.

you’re right this is incredibly lame.

more investigative reporting please.

do they really NOT collect ballots at the deadline? they really leave the box there for a few days so any idiot can drop off more ballots?

And Horsey makes fun of Sutherners?~?

Very dogpatchy.

@30 McGinn had volunteers out getting votes AFTER the (proverbial) polls had closed. Apparently, there is a 24 hour post office by SeaTac Airport; so McGinn was driving to people’s houses, picking up their ballot, putting a stamp on it and DRIVING down to SeaTac Airport.

@30 McGinn had volunteers out getting votes AFTER the (proverbial) polls had closed. Apparently, there is a 24 hour post office by SeaTac Airport; so McGinn was driving to people’s houses, picking up their ballot, putting a stamp on it and DRIVING down to SeaTac Airport.

“But this screw up alone could force the election into a protracted lawsuit.’

The ballot box was in Tukwilla, the story says, not Seattle.

Seriously! If McGinn wins the election because he was driving individual ballots from Seattle down to SeaTac…

I mean, the light rail is closed that late at night and apparently they didn’t find it feasible to bike. Interesting.

“But this screw up alone could force the election into a protracted lawsuit.’

The ballot box was in Tukwilla, the story says, not Seattle.

Seriously! If McGinn wins the election because he was driving individual ballots from Seattle down to SeaTac…

I mean, the light rail is closed that late at night and apparently they didn’t find it feasible to bike. Interesting.

@32 Alex: A ballot box can hold ballots from anywhere. This particular ballot box was at an Elections office, where ballots are actually counted.

Given that at least one of the Mayoral candidates pushed for ballot-chasing, and delivering the ballots to the SeaTac/Tukwila post office *after* the first numbers came out (Publicola 11/3) (something that does not seem to be illegal, but is definitely skeezy), it is possible that this box may have been vandalized in an effort to deliver late ballots.

Until a serious investigation is done, including an accounting of the jurisdiction of the compromised ballots, the process should be suspect. It is possible that an investigation will clear up any potential problems, but it must be done.

@32 Alex: A ballot box can hold ballots from anywhere. This particular ballot box was at an Elections office, where ballots are actually counted.

Given that at least one of the Mayoral candidates pushed for ballot-chasing, and delivering the ballots to the SeaTac/Tukwila post office *after* the first numbers came out (Publicola 11/3) (something that does not seem to be illegal, but is definitely skeezy), it is possible that this box may have been vandalized in an effort to deliver late ballots.

Until a serious investigation is done, including an accounting of the jurisdiction of the compromised ballots, the process should be suspect. It is possible that an investigation will clear up any potential problems, but it must be done.

Bring in the detectives from Law & Order: Electoral Intent.

Bring in the detectives from Law & Order: Electoral Intent.

Re: getting out the vote after “polls” close.

Is it correct that since we are voting by mail the polls (SeaTac/Tukwila post office?) don’t totally close till the clock hits 12AM now?

If it is correct then it was good to rally people to get their ballots to the post offices after 8PM.

Re: getting out the vote after “polls” close.

Is it correct that since we are voting by mail the polls (SeaTac/Tukwila post office?) don’t totally close till the clock hits 12AM now?

If it is correct then it was good to rally people to get their ballots to the post offices after 8PM.

Everyone has known for months that ballots postmarked before midnight on election day are valid. And there’s no ethical difference between driving supporters to the polls—which campaigns routinely do—and driving supporters’ signed and sealed ballots to the polls. There’s absolutely nothing improper or sleazy about what McGinn did Tuesday night.

To the contrary, what’s troubling isn’t that one campaign rebooted its get-out-the-vote machine after seeing the initial returns, it’s that either camp stopped working in the first place. If McGinn’s people secured 203 votes between 8:45 and 12, how many could they have snagged between 7:30 and 12? And how many could Mallahan have gotten if he had bothered to try? Sometimes this town can be so bush league.

In any event, the solution is to keep drop boxes open until midnight. And to either abandon postage or deploy more drop boxes.

Everyone has known for months that ballots postmarked before midnight on election day are valid. And there’s no ethical difference between driving supporters to the polls—which campaigns routinely do—and driving supporters’ signed and sealed ballots to the polls. There’s absolutely nothing improper or sleazy about what McGinn did Tuesday night.

To the contrary, what’s troubling isn’t that one campaign rebooted its get-out-the-vote machine after seeing the initial returns, it’s that either camp stopped working in the first place. If McGinn’s people secured 203 votes between 8:45 and 12, how many could they have snagged between 7:30 and 12? And how many could Mallahan have gotten if he had bothered to try? Sometimes this town can be so bush league.

In any event, the solution is to keep drop boxes open until midnight. And to either abandon postage or deploy more drop boxes.

More drop boxes, yes. It’s absurd how few there are. Sec. of State Sam Reed is going to be pushing legislation requiring ballots to be rec’d, not postmarked, by election day. If the state requires that, they should have a drop box at every former polling place.

An accusation of skeeziness for playing by the rules is absurd too. I mean, really.

More drop boxes, yes. It’s absurd how few there are. Sec. of State Sam Reed is going to be pushing legislation requiring ballots to be rec’d, not postmarked, by election day. If the state requires that, they should have a drop box at every former polling place.

An accusation of skeeziness for playing by the rules is absurd too. I mean, really.

Well, we all want Mallahan to win but some people are allready starting to accuse improper conduct for McGinn camp. This is going to damage mallahan a big time. I don’t think mcGinn people did anything wrong to do the get out to vote for the last minute. They run effective and efficient campaign, and we should wait and see the outcome of the counting in the coming days.

Well, we all want Mallahan to win but some people are allready starting to accuse improper conduct for McGinn camp. This is going to damage mallahan a big time. I don’t think mcGinn people did anything wrong to do the get out to vote for the last minute. They run effective and efficient campaign, and we should wait and see the outcome of the counting in the coming days.

Well, i was Mallahan Supporter and we are coming to grip with McGinn’s victory if the trend holds. Mallahan team is losing hope. Mallahan’s $600,000 with the big support from the union and the establishment is running behand for the third day. I had chatted with one of his campaing team yesterday, and he said ” We are heading down and i don’t think Mallahan is going to recover from this”. he thinks McGinn will widen his lead on Friday and Monday result. and there will be no recount.
Let us see what happen on this friday at 4:30 pm

Well, i was Mallahan Supporter and we are coming to grip with McGinn’s victory if the trend holds. Mallahan team is losing hope. Mallahan’s $600,000 with the big support from the union and the establishment is running behand for the third day. I had chatted with one of his campaing team yesterday, and he said ” We are heading down and i don’t think Mallahan is going to recover from this”. he thinks McGinn will widen his lead on Friday and Monday result. and there will be no recount.
Let us see what happen on this friday at 4:30 pm

my simple question… if the minimum to mail in is .42 cents, and the minimum to ride a bus these days is .50 cents for Seniors, disabled and medicare (with a permit, or $1.75 one zone… Is that considered a Poll Tax?

Assume a senior citizen register voter waits to vote till after their mail service that day, all mail boxes in the area are too far to walk… etc, etc… The amazing “what if” factor…

just sayin’

my simple question… if the minimum to mail in is .42 cents, and the minimum to ride a bus these days is .50 cents for Seniors, disabled and medicare (with a permit, or $1.75 one zone… Is that considered a Poll Tax?

Assume a senior citizen register voter waits to vote till after their mail service that day, all mail boxes in the area are too far to walk… etc, etc… The amazing “what if” factor…

just sayin’

@38: Well said, Jason, I was thinking the same thing. In defense of both campaigns, though, by election night, they were probably very tired. Most polls (and pundits) suggested a Mallahan win. It is no surprise then, that the initial result (this is going to be very, very close) got the McGinn folks energized and ready to fight for the last few votes. Most of the people doing the work are volunteers. Fatigue sets in, so without this sort of motivation (“Oh my God, we might win or lose by a handful of votes”) it is pretty hard to get them to drive around trying to get votes.

It all reminds me of the Cantwell/Gorton race, way back when. Most of the voting was at the ballot box, but there were still a handful of absentees (that everyone waited for, since it was so close). I forget the particulars, but the Sierra Club organized a group of folks (myself included) to go around and validate disputed ballots from presumed Democrats. Again, I forget the particular, but I think the law allows a voter to approve a disputed ballot, if the voter signs something. Many of these voters didn’t know, so I knocked on doors and got them to approve it (or something like that — my memory is rather vague). Anyway, it was all quite legal and not at all slimy, just good politics (make sure all your folks votes are counted — if the other side doesn’t do the same, that is their problem).

@38: Well said, Jason, I was thinking the same thing. In defense of both campaigns, though, by election night, they were probably very tired. Most polls (and pundits) suggested a Mallahan win. It is no surprise then, that the initial result (this is going to be very, very close) got the McGinn folks energized and ready to fight for the last few votes. Most of the people doing the work are volunteers. Fatigue sets in, so without this sort of motivation (“Oh my God, we might win or lose by a handful of votes”) it is pretty hard to get them to drive around trying to get votes.

It all reminds me of the Cantwell/Gorton race, way back when. Most of the voting was at the ballot box, but there were still a handful of absentees (that everyone waited for, since it was so close). I forget the particulars, but the Sierra Club organized a group of folks (myself included) to go around and validate disputed ballots from presumed Democrats. Again, I forget the particular, but I think the law allows a voter to approve a disputed ballot, if the voter signs something. Many of these voters didn’t know, so I knocked on doors and got them to approve it (or something like that — my memory is rather vague). Anyway, it was all quite legal and not at all slimy, just good politics (make sure all your folks votes are counted — if the other side doesn’t do the same, that is their problem).

Oh, and another thing. There are supposed to be a lot of Nerds on this site, so I wonder if their is a statistician around. If so, please comment on this race. For example, assuming all the votes counted so far are from a random sample, what are the chances that McGinn or Mallahan wins? This requires estimating how many are left to count, but that may not be that difficult to do (bonus points if the probability reports are done for different estimates).

Oh, and another thing. There are supposed to be a lot of Nerds on this site, so I wonder if their is a statistician around. If so, please comment on this race. For example, assuming all the votes counted so far are from a random sample, what are the chances that McGinn or Mallahan wins? This requires estimating how many are left to count, but that may not be that difficult to do (bonus points if the probability reports are done for different estimates).

If you mail your ballot several days ahead, it gets there. Period.

@42: What on earth are you trying to say?

If you mail your ballot several days ahead, it gets there. Period.

@42: What on earth are you trying to say?