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Nate Silver on R-71

News   November 3, 2009 at 2:08 pm Josh Feit

Political heartthrob Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight does his math wizardry on R-71.

He says it’s 10-1 odds (or 9.1 percent chance)  domestic partner rights will be go down.

That means, there’s a 90.9 percent chance, gay rights will be upheld.




  • http://gomezticator.livejournal.com/tag/wsdot+tunnel Gomez

    I hate to be Semantics Guy, but: You mean 10 to 1 that it will be rejected. To say something is 10 to 1 indicates that it is a 10 to 1 longshot (1 chance in 11). In other words, Silver says its 91% (10 out of 11) that it will pass.

  • http://gomezticator.livejournal.com/tag/wsdot+tunnel Gomez

    I hate to be Semantics Guy, but: You mean 10 to 1 that it will be rejected. To say something is 10 to 1 indicates that it is a 10 to 1 longshot (1 chance in 11). In other words, Silver says its 91% (10 out of 11) that it will pass.

  • http://publicola.net/ Josh Feit

    Yes. I just couldn’t get my head around Silver’s double negative since he was talking about rejecting R-71.

    That’s why I went w the 90.9% it will pass … the positive.

    I’ll tweak.

  • http://publicola.net/ Josh Feit

    Yes. I just couldn’t get my head around Silver’s double negative since he was talking about rejecting R-71.

    That’s why I went w the 90.9% it will pass … the positive.

    I’ll tweak.

  • doubtful

    Is this english?

  • doubtful

    Is this english?

  • http://peacetreefarm.org N in Seattle

    Does Nate discuss I-1033?

    I, for one, think that it passing would be much more deleterious than Suzie winning or R-71 failing.

  • http://peacetreefarm.org N in Seattle

    Does Nate discuss I-1033?

    I, for one, think that it passing would be much more deleterious than Suzie winning or R-71 failing.

  • http://gomezticator.livejournal.com/tag/wsdot+tunnel Gomez

    I’d love for Silver to bite into every Seattle race, but it’s likely he focused on R-71 because gay marriage is a national issue.

  • http://gomezticator.livejournal.com/tag/wsdot+tunnel Gomez

    I’d love for Silver to bite into every Seattle race, but it’s likely he focused on R-71 because gay marriage is a national issue.

  • Pliggett Darcy

    “Be go down”? This is an informative blog, but please, make it intelligible.

  • Pliggett Darcy

    “Be go down”? This is an informative blog, but please, make it intelligible.