Mallahan 45, McGinn 43, with 12 Percent Undecided and a 4.1 Percent Margin of Error

The actual survey results are here: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e265bfd2-724d-44e9-b1fd-81b447463ab1

The actual survey results are here: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e265bfd2-724d-44e9-b1fd-81b447463ab1

Is this a poll that’s able to call cell-phone users? Or are there still no polls around that can call someone’s cell?

Is this a poll that’s able to call cell-phone users? Or are there still no polls around that can call someone’s cell?

So are the McGinn people going to call his poll completely inaccurate as well, or is that not the case when their candidate isn’t losing by 9 points?

I think the point was that their own polling was probably showing what the King5 poll now says. I’ll make the same comment as I did earlier: this gives McGinn the edge. Undecideds are trending towards him and his core demographic (ie, the young folk who only use cell phones) are underrepresented (or not represented) in the poll. My armchair prediction: initial results will have Mallahan up, but McGinn surges as the night (read: week) progresses and takes it by a hair.

I think the point was that their own polling was probably showing what the King5 poll now says. I’ll make the same comment as I did earlier: this gives McGinn the edge. Undecideds are trending towards him and his core demographic (ie, the young folk who only use cell phones) are underrepresented (or not represented) in the poll. My armchair prediction: initial results will have Mallahan up, but McGinn surges as the night (read: week) progresses and takes it by a hair.

The cell phone issue is widely known by now, and so I would wonder what (if any) measures pollsters take to correct for that.

The cell phone issue is widely known by now, and so I would wonder what (if any) measures pollsters take to correct for that.

My favorite stat is that six percent of those who have already voted are still undecided.

My favorite stat is that six percent of those who have already voted are still undecided.

jeff–in this election, it’s likely true!

jeff–in this election, it’s likely true!

There is unmentioned equation. Asians and East Africans have been holding series of meeting behind the seen. The leaders of both communities are reaching aggresively to their respective communities to seek support for McGinn. Latino and Muslim communities are heavily leaning toward mcGinn. Yesterday 11-1-09. mcGinn met over hundred East African cab-owners at Miller community center, and than went to DElaRaza– oldest and largest Latino organization to attend the Day of Dead celeberation. and concluded with Columbia city town hall meeting where about 25-30 people came.
McGinn is reaching out minority communities which will make a big difference in this close election.

McGinn has run a better compaign than Mallahan when it comes reaching out the nich communities.
This is a good sign for McGinn

There is unmentioned equation. Asians and East Africans have been holding series of meeting behind the seen. The leaders of both communities are reaching aggresively to their respective communities to seek support for McGinn. Latino and Muslim communities are heavily leaning toward mcGinn. Yesterday 11-1-09. mcGinn met over hundred East African cab-owners at Miller community center, and than went to DElaRaza– oldest and largest Latino organization to attend the Day of Dead celeberation. and concluded with Columbia city town hall meeting where about 25-30 people came.
McGinn is reaching out minority communities which will make a big difference in this close election.

McGinn has run a better compaign than Mallahan when it comes reaching out the nich communities.
This is a good sign for McGinn

@8 I agree with you that McGinn has build a good relation with thos two communities, and we will see if that changes the outcome of tomorrow night election

@8 I agree with you that McGinn has build a good relation with thos two communities, and we will see if that changes the outcome of tomorrow night election

Well McGinn is very comfortable talking to people.

I have seen McGinn three times over the last three weeks. I am yet to see Mallahan. I saw Mallahan’s add or picture on the newspaper or the TV.

And that is one reason i voted for McGinn.

Well McGinn is very comfortable talking to people.

I have seen McGinn three times over the last three weeks. I am yet to see Mallahan. I saw Mallahan’s add or picture on the newspaper or the TV.

And that is one reason i voted for McGinn.

Anyone hanging their hat on “our voters have cell phones!” better be prepared for disappointment.

Anyone hanging their hat on “our voters have cell phones!” better be prepared for disappointment.

Mallahan’s got to be freaking out right now. This poll was taken post tv debate and his support is essentially the same (+2%), while McGinn got a statistically significant bump of 7%. One bright spot for Mallahan is that among those who are traditionally most likely to vote (the over 50 crowd) Mallahan has a comfortable lead.

Mallahan’s got to be freaking out right now. This poll was taken post tv debate and his support is essentially the same (+2%), while McGinn got a statistically significant bump of 7%. One bright spot for Mallahan is that among those who are traditionally most likely to vote (the over 50 crowd) Mallahan has a comfortable lead.

@11: Nate Silver disagrees!

@11: Nate Silver disagrees!

@8. Voe-Lee

Please define Asians, MLK-location McGinn Supporter.
Do you mean, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino,
Korean, South Asians, etc? So somehow he united
all these groups, under one flag. Please do not lump Asians as mostly immigrants because many are not. Many Chinese, Japanese, and Filipino Americans have been here for GENERATIONS since the early 1800′s.

I am very proud of my heritage and my history, but this pollyana-ish view of Asians is troubling.
I am hoping that this view is just the works of a young and overly excited (Asian?) campaign supporter,
rather than the philosophical views of McGinn.

Today’s race will be close, but we shall see.

@8. Voe-Lee

Please define Asians, MLK-location McGinn Supporter.
Do you mean, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino,
Korean, South Asians, etc? So somehow he united
all these groups, under one flag. Please do not lump Asians as mostly immigrants because many are not. Many Chinese, Japanese, and Filipino Americans have been here for GENERATIONS since the early 1800′s.

I am very proud of my heritage and my history, but this pollyana-ish view of Asians is troubling.
I am hoping that this view is just the works of a young and overly excited (Asian?) campaign supporter,
rather than the philosophical views of McGinn.

Today’s race will be close, but we shall see.

@14. Well what i mean Asian is “Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino, and Korean” Don’t forget McGinn’s Wife is half Asian. Her Mom is Japanese. So to many Asians– McGinn is “HomeBoy”. Vietnamese, Japanese,Filiino and majority of Chines as well– are ver active in his campaign. I don’t see a lot of Koreans. I gues they are busy with their Deli shops for now, but they have been reached by other Asians and will come on booard on the voting day.

McGinn is very popular with Asians, that is a big number who are not part of USA-Poll. so sit and relax dude. I promise that tonight you will see a big surprise.
McGinn 53
Mallahan 45

@14. Well what i mean Asian is “Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino, and Korean” Don’t forget McGinn’s Wife is half Asian. Her Mom is Japanese. So to many Asians– McGinn is “HomeBoy”. Vietnamese, Japanese,Filiino and majority of Chines as well– are ver active in his campaign. I don’t see a lot of Koreans. I gues they are busy with their Deli shops for now, but they have been reached by other Asians and will come on booard on the voting day.

McGinn is very popular with Asians, that is a big number who are not part of USA-Poll. so sit and relax dude. I promise that tonight you will see a big surprise.
McGinn 53
Mallahan 45

Because nobody with a cell phone’s going to support Mallaspam. It’s a dead heat per SurveyUSA among people with land lines who do the survey, but something like 100 to 0 for McGinn for those who don’t. The cell-phone-only demographic is totally nothing like the poll results. Right. Gotcha.

Because nobody with a cell phone’s going to support Mallaspam. It’s a dead heat per SurveyUSA among people with land lines who do the survey, but something like 100 to 0 for McGinn for those who don’t. The cell-phone-only demographic is totally nothing like the poll results. Right. Gotcha.

I hope this city isn’t stupid enought to vote for McGinn

@14. your view of Asian is potraying as if they have nothing in common. I am sure mhhhh is Mallahan worker or one of those Tunnul projec waiter. I have never seen Asian community uniting behind one candidate. Some of the Asians who used to vote for Ripublican are also supporting McGinn. someone who is on the ground and community organizer, i see Asians are prodominently voting for McGinn. According to this poll Mallahan leads 1 point for African American vote. 41-Mallahan and 40 for McGinn.
Despite of the high profile of endorsement Mallahan received from so called African American leaders is paying no divident to his campaign.

Mallahan has less support from the minority community.
the other point i want you to correct Mr-Tunnel is that wether one is here 200 years or 10 years, Asian is Asian– we all have small eyes, and eat rice.. lol

I hope this city isn’t stupid enought to vote for McGinn

@14. your view of Asian is potraying as if they have nothing in common. I am sure mhhhh is Mallahan worker or one of those Tunnul projec waiter. I have never seen Asian community uniting behind one candidate. Some of the Asians who used to vote for Ripublican are also supporting McGinn. someone who is on the ground and community organizer, i see Asians are prodominently voting for McGinn. According to this poll Mallahan leads 1 point for African American vote. 41-Mallahan and 40 for McGinn.
Despite of the high profile of endorsement Mallahan received from so called African American leaders is paying no divident to his campaign.

Mallahan has less support from the minority community.
the other point i want you to correct Mr-Tunnel is that wether one is here 200 years or 10 years, Asian is Asian– we all have small eyes, and eat rice.. lol

Actually, Gomez, you’re pretty close. I’m surprised this needs to be explained, but if you think about the people who depend primarily on land lines, they are young, mobile, tech savvy, etc. This demographic tends to be more progressive and McGinn has been much more successful with this crowd than Mallahan has. No, it’s not 100-0, but it’s definitely not representative of the overall poll results.

@5 – I don’t think they have found a way to control for this, based on the comments by a SurveyUSA pollster yesterday (in the SLOG?).

Actually, Gomez, you’re pretty close. I’m surprised this needs to be explained, but if you think about the people who depend primarily on land lines, they are young, mobile, tech savvy, etc. This demographic tends to be more progressive and McGinn has been much more successful with this crowd than Mallahan has. No, it’s not 100-0, but it’s definitely not representative of the overall poll results.

@5 – I don’t think they have found a way to control for this, based on the comments by a SurveyUSA pollster yesterday (in the SLOG?).

Edit on @19 comment: should read “people who depend primarily on cell phones”.

Edit on @19 comment: should read “people who depend primarily on cell phones”.

@19, I’m not saying you’re wrong, but your argument about cell phones lacks any evidence. Who says that people who depend primarily or exclusively on cell phones are “younger, mobile, tech savvy, etc.” and necessarily “progressive”? Is there a poll of such a demographic that I am unaware of?

You should look at the crosstabs (especially age) of the SurveyUSA poll. Is this distribution biased? After one of the earlier SurveyUSA polls came out this issue got a lot of play in the blogs, so I looked up the NYT exit polls from the presidential election last year to compare the age distribution of actual voters to what SurveyUSA has been reporting in this year’s local elections and found that they are almost identical. Clearly, a metropolotan area like Seattle differs in many ways from the nationwide electorate, but would the age distribution be so far off as to invalidate this survey? I don’t think so, but if you can refer us to a poll of this demographic (cell phones only) that might settle it.

@19, I’m not saying you’re wrong, but your argument about cell phones lacks any evidence. Who says that people who depend primarily or exclusively on cell phones are “younger, mobile, tech savvy, etc.” and necessarily “progressive”? Is there a poll of such a demographic that I am unaware of?

You should look at the crosstabs (especially age) of the SurveyUSA poll. Is this distribution biased? After one of the earlier SurveyUSA polls came out this issue got a lot of play in the blogs, so I looked up the NYT exit polls from the presidential election last year to compare the age distribution of actual voters to what SurveyUSA has been reporting in this year’s local elections and found that they are almost identical. Clearly, a metropolotan area like Seattle differs in many ways from the nationwide electorate, but would the age distribution be so far off as to invalidate this survey? I don’t think so, but if you can refer us to a poll of this demographic (cell phones only) that might settle it.

McGinn behind by 19 points among “moderates” but only 6 points among “conservatives”? Weird! Maybe the fiscal conservatives worried about Big Dig style cost overruns.

McGinn behind by 19 points among “moderates” but only 6 points among “conservatives”? Weird! Maybe the fiscal conservatives worried about Big Dig style cost overruns.

I’d humor your argument, Gordian, if it wasn’t based entirely on an unfounded generality.

I’d humor your argument, Gordian, if it wasn’t based entirely on an unfounded generality.

@21 – Yes, good questions. The The National Health Interview Study (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) has these stats about cell phone only users:

12.8% of all households
15.3% of Hispanics or Latinos
25.2% of 18-to-24-year-olds
29.1% of 25-to-29-year-olds
54% of unrelated adults living with no children
26.4% of renters
31.1% of cell phone-only users don’t have health insurance

Those are national stats, so I think you’d see a larger portion of the electorate being only cell users here (this is a guess). Regardless, McGinn leads in the 18-49 segment, has received a lot of endorsements in SE Seattle, and leads in lower income demographic – all of which have significant percentages that only use cell phones.

Here’s a good article I found (from which I took the stats).

@21 – Yes, good questions. The The National Health Interview Study (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) has these stats about cell phone only users:

12.8% of all households
15.3% of Hispanics or Latinos
25.2% of 18-to-24-year-olds
29.1% of 25-to-29-year-olds
54% of unrelated adults living with no children
26.4% of renters
31.1% of cell phone-only users don’t have health insurance

Those are national stats, so I think you’d see a larger portion of the electorate being only cell users here (this is a guess). Regardless, McGinn leads in the 18-49 segment, has received a lot of endorsements in SE Seattle, and leads in lower income demographic – all of which have significant percentages that only use cell phones.

Here’s a good article I found (from which I took the stats).

To end my last post: the key question is whether or not these demographics will actually vote.

To end my last post: the key question is whether or not these demographics will actually vote.

I’d say based on the large number of undecideds in earlier polls plus the movement we’ve seen toward McGinn that something similar to what happened in the primary is happening now. IOW the undecideds are breaking late and they’re breaking toward McGinn. Like the primary I’m also expecting McGinn to keep moving up relative to Mallahan as the ballots are counted. How much that matters depends on what the totals look like tonight. If Mallahan is way ahead it likely won’t matter. If Mallahan’s only up a little bit we may have another nailbiter. If McGinn is in a dead heat or up slightly at the end of the night he’s probably our next mayor.

I’d say based on the large number of undecideds in earlier polls plus the movement we’ve seen toward McGinn that something similar to what happened in the primary is happening now. IOW the undecideds are breaking late and they’re breaking toward McGinn. Like the primary I’m also expecting McGinn to keep moving up relative to Mallahan as the ballots are counted. How much that matters depends on what the totals look like tonight. If Mallahan is way ahead it likely won’t matter. If Mallahan’s only up a little bit we may have another nailbiter. If McGinn is in a dead heat or up slightly at the end of the night he’s probably our next mayor.

@24, the SurveyUSA poll has 25% of likely and actual voters in the 18-34 age group and 31% of likely and actual voters in the 35-49 age group. These are the age groups that McGinn is winning 46% to 41%. You identified one key question (@25), but the question directly related to the cell-only issue is, will the proportion of actual voters in the 18-49 age group be larger in the election results than what SurveyUSA predicted due to their not including this demographic in their survey. We may not be able to definitively answer that question due to the problem you pose @25 (the 2 effects may just cancel each other out, assuming your general characterization of cell-only voters is correct) and because I doubt that anyone is doing detailed exit polling of this election.

I’d still like to see a more recent and complete age distribution of cell-only voters (that isn’t given in the stats you cite).

@24, the SurveyUSA poll has 25% of likely and actual voters in the 18-34 age group and 31% of likely and actual voters in the 35-49 age group. These are the age groups that McGinn is winning 46% to 41%. You identified one key question (@25), but the question directly related to the cell-only issue is, will the proportion of actual voters in the 18-49 age group be larger in the election results than what SurveyUSA predicted due to their not including this demographic in their survey. We may not be able to definitively answer that question due to the problem you pose @25 (the 2 effects may just cancel each other out, assuming your general characterization of cell-only voters is correct) and because I doubt that anyone is doing detailed exit polling of this election.

I’d still like to see a more recent and complete age distribution of cell-only voters (that isn’t given in the stats you cite).

@26, I tend to agree with you. Mallahan’s 5% from 50 looks bigger than McGinn’s 7% given McGinn’s movement (and Mallahan’s stagnation) since the pre-debate polls (SurveyUSA and Washington). I don’t think we’ll know the result tonight.

@26, I tend to agree with you. Mallahan’s 5% from 50 looks bigger than McGinn’s 7% given McGinn’s movement (and Mallahan’s stagnation) since the pre-debate polls (SurveyUSA and Washington). I don’t think we’ll know the result tonight.

People, McGinn wasn’t undercounted in the primary SurveyUSA poll, Nickels was overcounted. SurveyUSA historically overcounts younger voters and undercounts older voters.

Fact: SurveyUSA’s 8/17 (the day before the primary), had 18-34 year olds voting at 22%. They actually turned out at 15.6%. In that same poll, it showed that young people favored Nickels by 5 points over all the candidates. You see the same behavior in the 35-49 group, another group that favored Nickels by 6 points, but was oversampled by nearly 6 points as well.

Sorry to break it to you hopeful McGinnites, but Mallahan will likely win tonight.

People, McGinn wasn’t undercounted in the primary SurveyUSA poll, Nickels was overcounted. SurveyUSA historically overcounts younger voters and undercounts older voters.

Fact: SurveyUSA’s 8/17 (the day before the primary), had 18-34 year olds voting at 22%. They actually turned out at 15.6%. In that same poll, it showed that young people favored Nickels by 5 points over all the candidates. You see the same behavior in the 35-49 group, another group that favored Nickels by 6 points, but was oversampled by nearly 6 points as well.

Sorry to break it to you hopeful McGinnites, but Mallahan will likely win tonight.

@29, where did you get the 15.6% (18-34yo %)? Does the state/county report this, or is it from an exit poll?

@29, where did you get the 15.6% (18-34yo %)? Does the state/county report this, or is it from an exit poll?

On the cell phone issue – My immediate circle of people that I regularly interact with are gay men who only have cell phones, fall into the 25-40 demo, and, were you to poll them, you’d find 100% Mallahan support.

Sure, young hipsters that don’t make a lot of money and only use cell phones are supporting McGinn, but, anecdotally, I’ve found that the majority of young, professional gays that are cell phone only users are supporting Joe.

Just my two cents.

On the cell phone issue – My immediate circle of people that I regularly interact with are gay men who only have cell phones, fall into the 25-40 demo, and, were you to poll them, you’d find 100% Mallahan support.

Sure, young hipsters that don’t make a lot of money and only use cell phones are supporting McGinn, but, anecdotally, I’ve found that the majority of young, professional gays that are cell phone only users are supporting Joe.

Just my two cents.

@30. The county or a voter vendor company.

@30. The county or a voter vendor company.

@32, can you be more specific? Did you get the number from a county website or somewhere else?

@32, can you be more specific? Did you get the number from a county website or somewhere else?

With a low return rate so far and a too-close-to-call margin of error, I predict a rare vote in favor of Mallahan from the candidate himself. (… despite what he accidentally said in the KUOW debate yesterday about “his candidate,” Mike McGinn…) Someone should tell the guy that his vote might actually make a/the difference. But, wait– tell him on Wednesday.

With a low return rate so far and a too-close-to-call margin of error, I predict a rare vote in favor of Mallahan from the candidate himself. (… despite what he accidentally said in the KUOW debate yesterday about “his candidate,” Mike McGinn…) Someone should tell the guy that his vote might actually make a/the difference. But, wait– tell him on Wednesday.

I think this election will be decided by turnout. If the voter turnout is higher than most off years I think McGinn has a strong chance. Looking at the cross tabs he’s winning the under 50, and there are more undecided voters in that group. If the trend continues (McGinn picking up more undecideds) then I can see him just getting by if turn out is up. I’d posit that R-71 is going to increase turnout in King county generally which may help McGinn given the overlap of young voters wanting to support 71 who wouldn’t normally vote.

I think this election will be decided by turnout. If the voter turnout is higher than most off years I think McGinn has a strong chance. Looking at the cross tabs he’s winning the under 50, and there are more undecided voters in that group. If the trend continues (McGinn picking up more undecideds) then I can see him just getting by if turn out is up. I’d posit that R-71 is going to increase turnout in King county generally which may help McGinn given the overlap of young voters wanting to support 71 who wouldn’t normally vote.

Okay, for anyone interested, I found the following Seattle Times story published after the August primary:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009692418_median_age_of_voters_in_primar.html

It has the distribution of voters by age, and if that distribution holds in the general, it’s very bad news for McGinn. Only 36.4% of voters were aged 18-49 in the primary. That means 63.6% of voters were >50yo.

SurveyUSA has this breakdown in their poll of “likely and actual voters”: 18-49 are 57% and >50 are 43%. That’s clearly overcounting the under 50s and undercounting over 50s.

Okay, for anyone interested, I found the following Seattle Times story published after the August primary:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009692418_median_age_of_voters_in_primar.html

It has the distribution of voters by age, and if that distribution holds in the general, it’s very bad news for McGinn. Only 36.4% of voters were aged 18-49 in the primary. That means 63.6% of voters were >50yo.

SurveyUSA has this breakdown in their poll of “likely and actual voters”: 18-49 are 57% and >50 are 43%. That’s clearly overcounting the under 50s and undercounting over 50s.

McGinn is toast.

McGinn is toast.

@35. McGinn has to win a super large majority of under 34. Not under 50. Look at the SurveyUSA crosstabs – Mallahan is leading all age groups, except under 34. It’s never gonna happen. McGinn’s only hope is that 80-100% of the undecideds vote for him and don’t stay out altogether (which is what I think a majority of that 12% will do).

@34 and 36
Well King county election officals think turnout will be high (http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=11&sid=234597)

Further, primary elections are always heavy on older voters and turnout is always much lower than the general. In 2007 the primary turnout was nearly half of what it was in the general (cite:http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/mediatoolkit/historicalturnoutdata.pdf)

So, I wouldn’t call this thing over.

@35. McGinn has to win a super large majority of under 34. Not under 50. Look at the SurveyUSA crosstabs – Mallahan is leading all age groups, except under 34. It’s never gonna happen. McGinn’s only hope is that 80-100% of the undecideds vote for him and don’t stay out altogether (which is what I think a majority of that 12% will do).

@34 and 36
Well King county election officals think turnout will be high (http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=11&sid=234597)

Further, primary elections are always heavy on older voters and turnout is always much lower than the general. In 2007 the primary turnout was nearly half of what it was in the general (cite:http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/mediatoolkit/historicalturnoutdata.pdf)

So, I wouldn’t call this thing over.

@38 I’ve seen the crosstabs obviously. You missed the point. McGinn’s only chance in high turnout because older voters always votes (generally) and so higher turnout is usually due to more younger voters. I used the under 50 because turnout tend to be stable for the over 50 crowd.

@38 I’ve seen the crosstabs obviously. You missed the point. McGinn’s only chance in high turnout because older voters always votes (generally) and so higher turnout is usually due to more younger voters. I used the under 50 because turnout tend to be stable for the over 50 crowd.

@39, I’m far from calling it over, I think anything could happen. I’m just pointing out that @32 was correct that SurveyUSA overcounted the under 50s in the primary and I think it is likely that they have overcounted the under 50s in their latest poll. If you’re a McGinn supporter, that is worrisome.

@39, I’m far from calling it over, I think anything could happen. I’m just pointing out that @32 was correct that SurveyUSA overcounted the under 50s in the primary and I think it is likely that they have overcounted the under 50s in their latest poll. If you’re a McGinn supporter, that is worrisome.

@39 Chaz beat me to the punch – you can’t compare this to Primary turnout, and percentage of age groups. You’d have to compare it to 2007 or, even better, 2001.

Why 2001, you ask?

Well, as some of you may remember, the TDO was in effect during that election. Nickels promised support of the AADO, and Sidran promised opposition. That was an election where young voters had something to rally around.

Of course, I cannot easily locate a demographic breakdown of the 2001 election, but I still doubt that the numbers will have an overly high youth turnout.

@39 Chaz beat me to the punch – you can’t compare this to Primary turnout, and percentage of age groups. You’d have to compare it to 2007 or, even better, 2001.

Why 2001, you ask?

Well, as some of you may remember, the TDO was in effect during that election. Nickels promised support of the AADO, and Sidran promised opposition. That was an election where young voters had something to rally around.

Of course, I cannot easily locate a demographic breakdown of the 2001 election, but I still doubt that the numbers will have an overly high youth turnout.

@40. I get your point, but you’re making the assumption that higher turnout = higher younger voter turnout. And that’s simply not true. Last year Seattle had 86% turnout for the Presidential. Under 34 voters totaled 27.7% of the vote. Over 50? They totaled 42.4%. Higher turnout doesnt mean higher younger voter turnout in any greater disproportion to older demographics. And since Mallahan is leading in all ages other than 18-34 (which as we’ve noted is already oversampled), McGinn needs a huge number of them to turn out, greater than the other demographics. If it didn’t work for Obama, I am not sure how it works for McGinn.

@40. I get your point, but you’re making the assumption that higher turnout = higher younger voter turnout. And that’s simply not true. Last year Seattle had 86% turnout for the Presidential. Under 34 voters totaled 27.7% of the vote. Over 50? They totaled 42.4%. Higher turnout doesnt mean higher younger voter turnout in any greater disproportion to older demographics. And since Mallahan is leading in all ages other than 18-34 (which as we’ve noted is already oversampled), McGinn needs a huge number of them to turn out, greater than the other demographics. If it didn’t work for Obama, I am not sure how it works for McGinn.

@42, you think the under 50s will be 57% (from 36% in the primary)?

@42, you think the under 50s will be 57% (from 36% in the primary)?

@44 -

I don’t know what the under 50′s were in 2001. I’m just saying that, for turnout and age group purposes, I think that’s a closer election to look towards (Al Runte was token opposition in 2005, and this year, like 2001, has no incumbent running).

I still think Mallahan can pull it off. I just don’t think primary demo numbers are comparable.

@44 -

I don’t know what the under 50′s were in 2001. I’m just saying that, for turnout and age group purposes, I think that’s a closer election to look towards (Al Runte was token opposition in 2005, and this year, like 2001, has no incumbent running).

I still think Mallahan can pull it off. I just don’t think primary demo numbers are comparable.

I think we’re looking at more of a momentum/late close situation here. While the demographic information is useful I don’t think it reflects how the remaining undecideds are breaking. It would seem that much like the primary the undecideds are breaking toward McGinn which may be enough to put him over the top once all of the ballots are counted.

On the other hand Mallahan could be far enough ahead that any movement by McGinn is too little too late.

I think we’re looking at more of a momentum/late close situation here. While the demographic information is useful I don’t think it reflects how the remaining undecideds are breaking. It would seem that much like the primary the undecideds are breaking toward McGinn which may be enough to put him over the top once all of the ballots are counted.

On the other hand Mallahan could be far enough ahead that any movement by McGinn is too little too late.

Chris, many overestimate the impact of a late ‘get out the vote’ doorbell/robo/promo campaign. Many undecideds are somewhat fed up and/or disillusioned with the election hubbub. Doorbelling voters who aren’t sold on voting in this race, let alone your candidate, isn’t going to swing them into voting your way.

There’s a growing misconception that getting the word out for a candidate is a ticket to extra votes for whoever runs such a crusade. It doesn’t exactly work that way with a race like this, where many are turned off towards both candidates.

Chris, many overestimate the impact of a late ‘get out the vote’ doorbell/robo/promo campaign. Many undecideds are somewhat fed up and/or disillusioned with the election hubbub. Doorbelling voters who aren’t sold on voting in this race, let alone your candidate, isn’t going to swing them into voting your way.

There’s a growing misconception that getting the word out for a candidate is a ticket to extra votes for whoever runs such a crusade. It doesn’t exactly work that way with a race like this, where many are turned off towards both candidates.

So are the McGinn people going to call his poll completely inaccurate as well, or is that not the case when their candidate isn't losing by 9 points?