Deep Thought #2

Poll: Seattle favors tunnel replacement for viaduct

According to the poll:

49 percent of people support the tunnel replacement.
43 percent oppose it.
7 percent are unsure.
Respondents were also asked, in light of the ongoing mayoral election, whether the project should move forward or delayed until voters pick a new mayor.

50 percent said it should move ahead.
23 percent said it should be delayed until after November.
23 percent said the whole process should be restarted.

August 26, 2009
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/177478.asp

I have expected the candidate polling to trend right up to the tunnel poll values, then they split the 7% in some way.
Mallahan 50%+
McGinn 43%+
I think McGinn can get 47%, but not 50.

Poll: Seattle favors tunnel replacement for viaduct

According to the poll:

49 percent of people support the tunnel replacement.
43 percent oppose it.
7 percent are unsure.
Respondents were also asked, in light of the ongoing mayoral election, whether the project should move forward or delayed until voters pick a new mayor.

50 percent said it should move ahead.
23 percent said it should be delayed until after November.
23 percent said the whole process should be restarted.

August 26, 2009
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/177478.asp

I have expected the candidate polling to trend right up to the tunnel poll values, then they split the 7% in some way.
Mallahan 50%+
McGinn 43%+
I think McGinn can get 47%, but not 50.

People didn’t like Sidran, but no one said he wasn’t qualified to be Mayor, as opposed to that phone company exec with zero civic experience that rarely even votes.

People didn’t like Sidran, but no one said he wasn’t qualified to be Mayor, as opposed to that phone company exec with zero civic experience that rarely even votes.

Yo, Mr. Baker, that was a poll of all adults, not of likely or even registered voters. The tunnel consistently scores worse with seniors, the people that are most likely to vote.

And what percent do you think support tax increases to pay for the tunnel? Or tolls? Or the city paying cost overruns on a state highway?

Yo, Mr. Baker, that was a poll of all adults, not of likely or even registered voters. The tunnel consistently scores worse with seniors, the people that are most likely to vote.

And what percent do you think support tax increases to pay for the tunnel? Or tolls? Or the city paying cost overruns on a state highway?

@2 makes the point.

Sidran, at least, had a record to run on. Not so with Joe.

@2 makes the point.

Sidran, at least, had a record to run on. Not so with Joe.

@3, then maybe the tunnel isn’t the defining issue after all, since Mallahan leads among seniors (48% to 38% in latest SurveyUSA poll):

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fc4240c-0d90-4328-b028-8897253a5455

@3, then maybe the tunnel isn’t the defining issue after all, since Mallahan leads among seniors (48% to 38% in latest SurveyUSA poll):

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fc4240c-0d90-4328-b028-8897253a5455

@1 Same polling firm that said Nickels wins primary Mallahan comes in 2nd. Not exactly a Dewey moment but…

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1cfcf4df-f3f0-4b82-b85f-5d3a4239009a

I don’t think anyone knows much of anything right now.

@2, @4

McGinn has his own lack of experience issues. Has McGinn managed anything with a budget of $1M or more?

I don’t think the voters are overwhelmed by either candidate’s qualifications to be mayor.

@1 Same polling firm that said Nickels wins primary Mallahan comes in 2nd. Not exactly a Dewey moment but…

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1cfcf4df-f3f0-4b82-b85f-5d3a4239009a

I don’t think anyone knows much of anything right now.

@2, @4

McGinn has his own lack of experience issues. Has McGinn managed anything with a budget of $1M or more?

I don’t think the voters are overwhelmed by either candidate’s qualifications to be mayor.

Experience is all but irrelevant in this race. Neither is fully qualified. That’s probably the reason Mallahan has been beating home the message, as of late, that McGinn has never managed any significant budget.

McGinn’s civic duty is limited to chairing a local chapter of the Sierra Club, campaigning AGAINST Roads and Transit (or spearheading it, although it’s difficult to tell, because O’Brien also says he spearheaded that effort, but I’m more inclined to believe O’Brien), and founding a non-profit that supported a parks measure until he was pushed aside for a more professional manager of that campaign.

While that sounds impressive on its face, I would venture a guess that just about every city council candidate (save one or two) has a stronger resume than that.

When you put up temperament and managerial expertise as barometers, I believe Mallahan wins in a heartbeat. If you want an activist as a mayor, then sure, McGinn wins. But he gets pretty angry pretty easily, and has no experience actually managing something. He’s Nickels with a beard, and representing hard-left idealism.

In the end, I think Mallahan wins around 50%, McGinn around 40%, and the rest write-ins.

Experience is all but irrelevant in this race. Neither is fully qualified. That’s probably the reason Mallahan has been beating home the message, as of late, that McGinn has never managed any significant budget.

McGinn’s civic duty is limited to chairing a local chapter of the Sierra Club, campaigning AGAINST Roads and Transit (or spearheading it, although it’s difficult to tell, because O’Brien also says he spearheaded that effort, but I’m more inclined to believe O’Brien), and founding a non-profit that supported a parks measure until he was pushed aside for a more professional manager of that campaign.

While that sounds impressive on its face, I would venture a guess that just about every city council candidate (save one or two) has a stronger resume than that.

When you put up temperament and managerial expertise as barometers, I believe Mallahan wins in a heartbeat. If you want an activist as a mayor, then sure, McGinn wins. But he gets pretty angry pretty easily, and has no experience actually managing something. He’s Nickels with a beard, and representing hard-left idealism.

In the end, I think Mallahan wins around 50%, McGinn around 40%, and the rest write-ins.

Also, outside the KoolAid circle, people find McGinn unlikeable. His debate demeanor hasn’t helped him win over any fans who weren’t already on his bus.

Also, outside the KoolAid circle, people find McGinn unlikeable. His debate demeanor hasn’t helped him win over any fans who weren’t already on his bus.

I met Mallahan last week and observed him in a group setting where he talked with people he didn’t know about issues he didn’t know about. He was quite likeable and showed curiosity. He impressed me much more in person than on TV or in a forum.

However, I don’t vote for likeable people; I vote for people who I think will do the better job and whose supporters seem to have opinions similar to mine, as far as I can tell. With these guys, that’s just a guess. So I voted for McGinn on a guess. That’s the situation this election cycle. I actually didn’t feel much more uneasy voting for Al Runte.

I met Mallahan last week and observed him in a group setting where he talked with people he didn’t know about issues he didn’t know about. He was quite likeable and showed curiosity. He impressed me much more in person than on TV or in a forum.

However, I don’t vote for likeable people; I vote for people who I think will do the better job and whose supporters seem to have opinions similar to mine, as far as I can tell. With these guys, that’s just a guess. So I voted for McGinn on a guess. That’s the situation this election cycle. I actually didn’t feel much more uneasy voting for Al Runte.

6. To be fair, that was fairly close, and there was a 11% chunk of undecideds that it appears went all to either Mallaspam or McGinn.

Nickels pretty much picked up the ~26% he was expected to get, and only having a 4-5 point edge in polling isn’t exactly projecting him to win. If he had, say,an 8-10 point edge, then that’s a projection that he’s probably going to win. Keep in mind these polls have a margin of error and variance of a few points in any direction can dramatically skew the final result… as it turns out it did in this primary… especially in a clowcar primary like this. In an election with only two candidates, I would expect a little less variance.

6. To be fair, that was fairly close, and there was a 11% chunk of undecideds that it appears went all to either Mallaspam or McGinn.

Nickels pretty much picked up the ~26% he was expected to get, and only having a 4-5 point edge in polling isn’t exactly projecting him to win. If he had, say,an 8-10 point edge, then that’s a projection that he’s probably going to win. Keep in mind these polls have a margin of error and variance of a few points in any direction can dramatically skew the final result… as it turns out it did in this primary… especially in a clowcar primary like this. In an election with only two candidates, I would expect a little less variance.

No one ever said Nickels & Sidran were not qualified by experience or were not fairly bright. Nickels is uneducated but not stupid. I will vote for McGinn. I’m not enthusiastic about him and don’t share all of his policy views. After the last 8 years I’m leery of politicians who are inarticulate, appear disengaged and are unfamiliar with their community and Mallahan strikes me as all three.

No one ever said Nickels & Sidran were not qualified by experience or were not fairly bright. Nickels is uneducated but not stupid. I will vote for McGinn. I’m not enthusiastic about him and don’t share all of his policy views. After the last 8 years I’m leery of politicians who are inarticulate, appear disengaged and are unfamiliar with their community and Mallahan strikes me as all three.

Sigh. I just can’t wait for this whole race to be over. Let’s elect one of these idiots and move on. Ugh.

Sigh. I just can’t wait for this whole race to be over. Let’s elect one of these idiots and move on. Ugh.

The oldest trick in the book is to do a poll about a project and leave out the cost. And, the tax increase.

If that’s the margin with the cost or the taxes left out, that means the tunnel doesn’t have majority support. Certainly not the sort of 60%+ level of support you need to actually get a project thru — after inevitable cost increases and disappointments.

We’ve seen this movie before.

The oldest trick in the book is to do a poll about a project and leave out the cost. And, the tax increase.

If that’s the margin with the cost or the taxes left out, that means the tunnel doesn’t have majority support. Certainly not the sort of 60%+ level of support you need to actually get a project thru — after inevitable cost increases and disappointments.

We’ve seen this movie before.

My outsider guess: Mallahan, 52-48 (McGinn high water mark).

horsetrading demographics is not expected, I was drawn to the overall score as a general target.
This was a poll of people, people vote (still), but not all voters act like people.

8 days to go.

My outsider guess: Mallahan, 52-48 (McGinn high water mark).

horsetrading demographics is not expected, I was drawn to the overall score as a general target.
This was a poll of people, people vote (still), but not all voters act like people.

8 days to go.

@14, pretending the surface option is free is no better.

McGinn will just reuse gas tax money for roads on a laundry list of Seattle stuff.
Let’s pretend, like McGinn does, that the surface option we actually supported by all the people that have moved on with the tunnel. The state is only obligated to removing the viaduct, and putting in a new state road, that is all. If that part was less than 1.9 billion dollars then the state would use the rest some place else in the state.
For some strange reason the people that like to pretend that the cost overruns are possible think the same legislators that were in favor of sticking it to Seattle are going to fall all over themselves to gift more state tax money to Seattle, beyond removing and replacing the viaduct.

You can not have that both ways.

@14, pretending the surface option is free is no better.

McGinn will just reuse gas tax money for roads on a laundry list of Seattle stuff.
Let’s pretend, like McGinn does, that the surface option we actually supported by all the people that have moved on with the tunnel. The state is only obligated to removing the viaduct, and putting in a new state road, that is all. If that part was less than 1.9 billion dollars then the state would use the rest some place else in the state.
For some strange reason the people that like to pretend that the cost overruns are possible think the same legislators that were in favor of sticking it to Seattle are going to fall all over themselves to gift more state tax money to Seattle, beyond removing and replacing the viaduct.

You can not have that both ways.