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Minority Vote Could Be the Key to Mayor's Race

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The Seattle Times has published another precinct-by-precinct map breaking down how Seattle voted in the August 18 primary.

This time they look at the results of the bag fee proposal, which lost 53-47.

Earlier in the week, they mapped out the results in  mayor’s race.

Looking at the two maps side-by-side helps make a little sense out of the pending general election contest between mayoral candidates Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn—which has been a bit hard to pin down because both men were running as outsiders and change agents, playing to a mish mash of constituencies. For example, Sierra Club activist McGinn ran as both a bike riding urban green and a tax-slashing conservative while T-Mobile executive Mallahan ran as both a clean-up-the-mess pragmatic businessman and an Obama-inspired progressive.

What comparing the maps shows is that Mallahan’s vote tacked to the more conservative, blue collar anti-bag tax vote in Seattle’s outer ring neighborhoods (ironically, Mallahan supports the bag tax), while McGinn’s tacked to the liberal pro-bag tax vote in places like Capitol Hill and Wallingford. (McGinn is pro-bag tax.) That inner-ring, outer-ring split could make the Mallahan vs. McGinn matchup a nailbiter.

However, there’s an anomaly on the map. Mallahan did not match up with the anti-bag tax vote in South Seattle. That vote—which also includes much of Seattle’s non-white vote—went to Mayor Greg Nickels.

Is one of the keys to the election—one that is shaping up to be a very close contest—the minority vote? It was apparently a key for Nickels’ nailbiter victory over conservative city attorney Mark Sidran in 2001, when—once again—Nickels captured the minority vote. (In a carbon copy of this year’s primary, ousted incumbent Paul Schell carried the minority vote in the 2001 primary).

Which one of the white boys will get it, the bougie bike riding McGinn or the corporate speak schmoozer Mallahan?

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  • Joh Alwood

    I think McGinn’s populist mystique will help him here a lot, unless Mallahan reveals a new found love of Jesus. Then Mike is fucked.

  • Joh Alwood

    I think McGinn’s populist mystique will help him here a lot, unless Mallahan reveals a new found love of Jesus. Then Mike is fucked.

  • joshuadf

    Why in the world did Lower Queen Anne vote against the bag tax? Does Met Market not allow reusable bags?

  • Trevor

    Some data about how many south seattle residents are people of color, how many are registered to vote, how frequently they vote, and the percentage of registered people of color in the South end that went to the polls in the last primary would be helpful.

  • Trevor

    Some data about how many south seattle residents are people of color, how many are registered to vote, how frequently they vote, and the percentage of registered people of color in the South end that went to the polls in the last primary would be helpful.

  • Gidge

    These maps are almost like looking at presidential election maps without knowing the number of electoral votes for each state. They illustrate some of the dynamics in SE Seattle, but don’t show relative voter turnout. If not a lot of people in SE Seattle turn out to vote, they may not actually be the key to the mayor’s race.

  • Gidge

    These maps are almost like looking at presidential election maps without knowing the number of electoral votes for each state. They illustrate some of the dynamics in SE Seattle, but don’t show relative voter turnout. If not a lot of people in SE Seattle turn out to vote, they may not actually be the key to the mayor’s race.

  • joshuadf

    You know, it’s also curious that the only state highway they label is SR-99. It seems like they’d want to label important freight roads like SR-522 (Lake City Way/Bothell Way) and SR-900 (Rainer/MLK).

  • joshuadf

    You know, it’s also curious that the only state highway they label is SR-99. It seems like they’d want to label important freight roads like SR-522 (Lake City Way/Bothell Way) and SR-900 (Rainer/MLK).

  • ProjectMcRunway

    It’s not the minority vote, it’s the light rail vote. duh

    People in RV appreciate the tremendous asset of which the mayor was an unwavering supporter, and they actually connected the dots. He got shit done for the city, as opposed to McGinn who wants to mire us in more BS debate about a done deal or Mallahan that doesn’t know squat about government at all…

  • ProjectMcRunway

    It’s not the minority vote, it’s the light rail vote. duh

    People in RV appreciate the tremendous asset of which the mayor was an unwavering supporter, and they actually connected the dots. He got shit done for the city, as opposed to McGinn who wants to mire us in more BS debate about a done deal or Mallahan that doesn’t know squat about government at all…

  • joshuadf

    Why in the world did Lower Queen Anne vote against the bag tax? Does Met Market not allow reusable bags?