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The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

The Best-Case Scenario

News   August 21, 2009 at 6:58 am Erica C. Barnett

fizz63

1. Mayor Greg Nickels is holding a press conference at 10:00 this morning, presumably to make official what we wrote yesterday : Barring a miracle in the 30,000 votes that have yet to be counted, his second term will be his last.

2. Meanwhile, the latest numbers show more good news for King County Executive candidate Dow Constantine: as with Wednesday’s count , Thursday’s numbers narrowed frontrunner Susan Hutchison’s lead even further—from 36-23 to 35-25, a gap of about 25,000 votes. With perhaps 90,000 votes still uncounted, that trend isn’t enough to put Constantine in the lead, but it does show late voters swinging Constantine’s way—a good sign for the Democrat in the general election.

3. Yesterday, City Council Position 6 challenger Jessie Israel sent out an optimistic email to supporters calling her opponent, longtime incumbent Nick Licata, "beatable." The evidence? Licata has "just" 55 percent of the vote so far. "About half the people support him and about half do not. For an incumbent, this is a most vulnerable position – especially since Nick received a whopping 78% of the vote in his last election."

The problem with that analysis is that no incumbent city council member has ever lost after getting more than 50 percent in the primary. And that 78 percent was in a two-way race—this year, Licata had not one but two real challengers. Bottom line: Israel’s best-case scenario at this point is to get as many votes as possible in the general as a prelude to a future run. Israel hasn’t yet returned a call (made yesterday afternoon) for comment about the numbers.

4. The repeal of the so-called "head tax" or employee hours tax (EHT)—a $25-per-employee tax, paid by employers, that exempts workers who don’t drive to work alone—may not be a foregone conclusion. On Wednesday, the Bridging the Gap Oversight Committee wrote a letter to city council members expressing concerns about the proposed repeal. The tax pays for transportation projects, including projects in the voter-approved Bridging the Gap transportation levy.

The letter reads, in part:

There was strong consensus among committee members that bcommitments made to the voters as part of Bridging the Gap campaign must be honored. … We believe stakeholders supported the measure in part because it was understood EHT was part of the bigger picture in helping fund projects in the maintenance backlog. While we fully support your role in making policy decisions around this and other difficult issues, we want to ensure BTG remains fully funded and promises made to voters are kept intact.

Numerous unsuccessful candidates for city council and mayor (Jan Drago, Martin Kaplan, etc.) expressed support for repealing the "head tax."  However, if Mike McGinn becomes mayor and Mike O’Brien is elected to City Council Position 8, the issue could be up for debate again. The council will take up discussions of the tax during budget discussions in November; however, those discussions will now be dominated by the need to fill a $72 million revenue shortfall.

Today’s Morning Fizz brought to you by Re-elect Richard Conlin. CLICK HERE TO DONATE .

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  • dacoach

    9 pts from a 3-term incumbent is within striking distance. Granted, Israel probably wanted to get him down to less than 50%, but the reality is that over the last 3 months she’s increasingly gained ground and he’s increasingly lost ground.

    Plus, your analysis suggests the same number of voters will be voting in the general as voted in the primary, a flawed analysis for sure.

    One can assume the “new” voters in the general will be disaffected voters. These voters are most surely not going to vote for a 3-term incumbent.

  • dacoach

    9 pts from a 3-term incumbent is within striking distance. Granted, Israel probably wanted to get him down to less than 50%, but the reality is that over the last 3 months she’s increasingly gained ground and he’s increasingly lost ground.

    Plus, your analysis suggests the same number of voters will be voting in the general as voted in the primary, a flawed analysis for sure.

    One can assume the “new” voters in the general will be disaffected voters. These voters are most surely not going to vote for a 3-term incumbent.

  • http://www.BombasticMo.com/ BombasticMo

    I’m still curious and optimistic as to how the Israel/Licata election will turn out.

    I think Israel has been getting a lot of great attention, and despite Licata’s high numbers, I think she could pull ahead.

    I spoke with her for a bit last night at the Politicos event and she was optimistic and cheerful.

    I don’t know if we can “assume ‘new’ voters” are all disaffected with Licata, but I don’t think this deal is done yet.

    P.S. love the earlier Morning Fizz. Thanks for waking up godawfully early Erica! :)

  • http://www.BombasticMo.com BombasticMo

    I’m still curious and optimistic as to how the Israel/Licata election will turn out.

    I think Israel has been getting a lot of great attention, and despite Licata’s high numbers, I think she could pull ahead.

    I spoke with her for a bit last night at the Politicos event and she was optimistic and cheerful.

    I don’t know if we can “assume ‘new’ voters” are all disaffected with Licata, but I don’t think this deal is done yet.

    P.S. love the earlier Morning Fizz. Thanks for waking up godawfully early Erica! :)

  • Christopher Stefan

    One other thing is with Nickels gone from City Hall there is much less need to keep Nick around as a check on the mayor.

    At the very least Israel is going to give Licata a good run and make him work for his re-election. Not generally a bad thing.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    The key accomplishment Israel touts was that she kept county parks open through corporate sponsorships.

    Now those parks are once again slated for the chopping block.

    I doubt her campaign momentum is any more sustainable than her park “solutions”.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    The key accomplishment Israel touts was that she kept county parks open through corporate sponsorships.

    Now those parks are once again slated for the chopping block.

    I doubt her campaign momentum is any more sustainable than her park “solutions”.

  • swatter

    If Constantine had led at this point, then it would be 65-35 in the general. Perhaps 55-45 would be a good showing for Hutch with Constantine winning.

  • swatter

    If Constantine had led at this point, then it would be 65-35 in the general. Perhaps 55-45 would be a good showing for Hutch with Constantine winning.

  • Christopher Stefan

    @4
    The threat when she did that was closing _ALL_ of the county parks such as Marymoor. The parks currently slated for closing are small parks that don’t have sponsors.

  • Christopher Stefan

    @4
    The threat when she did that was closing _ALL_ of the county parks such as Marymoor. The parks currently slated for closing are small parks that don’t have sponsors.

  • Marge

    It doesn’t appear to me that there are 30,000 ballots left to count in Seattle, maybe more like around 20,000.

  • http://www.43rddems.org/ Michael J. Maddux

    Why isn’t there anything exciting and fun to bitch about like yesterday’s morning fizz? Erica – you disappoint. How am I supposed to plug tomorrow’s BBQ at Gas Works Park, now featuring an opportunity to ask questions and give opinions to a legislative aide (or something like that) from Sen. Cantwell’s office.

    And Nick Licata and Jessie Israel BOTH flipping burgers at the grill!!! (there – a tie-in to the actual morning fizz)

  • Marge

    It doesn’t appear to me that there are 30,000 ballots left to count in Seattle, maybe more like around 20,000.

  • http://www.43rddems.org Michael J. Maddux

    Why isn’t there anything exciting and fun to bitch about like yesterday’s morning fizz? Erica – you disappoint. How am I supposed to plug tomorrow’s BBQ at Gas Works Park, now featuring an opportunity to ask questions and give opinions to a legislative aide (or something like that) from Sen. Cantwell’s office.

    And Nick Licata and Jessie Israel BOTH flipping burgers at the grill!!! (there – a tie-in to the actual morning fizz)

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    @6 Interesting distinction. Here website says at this moment:

    At KingCounty, Jessie has been on point to help reshape King County Parks into an entrepreneurial, performance-driven governmental organization. This transformation allows parks to generate non-tax revenue and ensure green space remains open, even during tight fiscal times. Israel serves on the Parks management team with operating revenue of more than $20 million & 150 permanent employees. She directly oversee Parks business revenue target encompassing 25% of overall operating revenues.

    [Emphasis mine]

    Oops.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    @6 Interesting distinction. Here website says at this moment:

    At KingCounty, Jessie has been on point to help reshape King County Parks into an entrepreneurial, performance-driven governmental organization. This transformation allows parks to generate non-tax revenue and ensure green space remains open, even during tight fiscal times. Israel serves on the Parks management team with operating revenue of more than $20 million & 150 permanent employees. She directly oversee Parks business revenue target encompassing 25% of overall operating revenues.

    [Emphasis mine]

    Oops.

  • Just get it done

    ECB, where’s that article on Bagshaw/Bloom/Plants? You promised.

  • Just get it done

    ECB, where’s that article on Bagshaw/Bloom/Plants? You promised.

  • Just get it done

    ECB, where’s that article on Bagshaw/Bloom/Plants? You promised.

  • Seamus O

    The General Election is more liberal than the Primary. In other words, Licata voters. Licata ain’t going to be stuck at 55%, that baby’s going up.

  • Seamus O

    The General Election is more liberal than the Primary. In other words, Licata voters. Licata ain’t going to be stuck at 55%, that baby’s going up.

  • Seamus O

    The General Election is more liberal than the Primary. In other words, Licata voters. Licata ain’t going to be stuck at 55%, that baby’s going up.

  • Bus Rider Today

    For insight into Licata’s race—the Mayor was for big projects, fancy stuff, while Licata dug in on the nitty-gritty, and kept his constituent roots strong. That should show results in the general, also.

    Israel should have run for the open seat. Now, she’ll do well to position herself for that, with a positive and upbeat campaign.

    The race is Licata’s to lose–if he is undisciplined and disorganized, misstates his prior positions, looks like he is taking it and his supporters for granted, he might. But ‘might’ is a pretty big word.

  • ivan

    One other thing is with Nickels gone from City Hall there is much less need to keep Nick around as a check on the mayor.

    I nominate this for hands down the dumbest, most ludicrous comment of the year.

    Apparently Seattle voters are going to hand the keys to the Mayor’s office to someone who has never held ANY public office at ANY level, and is a complete unknown, and if anything we need the Council to step up and provide even MORE leadership, and MORE oversight, and MORE of a check on the mayor’s office.

    You think it can’t get worse than Nickels? Were some of you people born yesterday? We thought it couldn’t get worse than Nixon, and we got Reagan. We thought it couldn’t get worse than Reagan, and we got Bush.

    I don’t claim to know if things WILL get better or worse. No one else should, either. But they CAN. A council that provides an effective check on ANY mayor is in our best interest, always. That means Nick, and that just about assures his re-election.

  • ivan

    One other thing is with Nickels gone from City Hall there is much less need to keep Nick around as a check on the mayor.

    I nominate this for hands down the dumbest, most ludicrous comment of the year.

    Apparently Seattle voters are going to hand the keys to the Mayor’s office to someone who has never held ANY public office at ANY level, and is a complete unknown, and if anything we need the Council to step up and provide even MORE leadership, and MORE oversight, and MORE of a check on the mayor’s office.

    You think it can’t get worse than Nickels? Were some of you people born yesterday? We thought it couldn’t get worse than Nixon, and we got Reagan. We thought it couldn’t get worse than Reagan, and we got Bush.

    I don’t claim to know if things WILL get better or worse. No one else should, either. But they CAN. A council that provides an effective check on ANY mayor is in our best interest, always. That means Nick, and that just about assures his re-election.

  • Bus Rider Today

    For insight into Licata’s race—the Mayor was for big projects, fancy stuff, while Licata dug in on the nitty-gritty, and kept his constituent roots strong. That should show results in the general, also.

    Israel should have run for the open seat. Now, she’ll do well to position herself for that, with a positive and upbeat campaign.

    The race is Licata’s to lose–if he is undisciplined and disorganized, misstates his prior positions, looks like he is taking it and his supporters for granted, he might. But ‘might’ is a pretty big word.

  • ivan

    One other thing is with Nickels gone from City Hall there is much less need to keep Nick around as a check on the mayor.

    I nominate this for hands down the dumbest, most ludicrous comment of the year.

    Apparently Seattle voters are going to hand the keys to the Mayor’s office to someone who has never held ANY public office at ANY level, and is a complete unknown, and if anything we need the Council to step up and provide even MORE leadership, and MORE oversight, and MORE of a check on the mayor’s office.

    You think it can’t get worse than Nickels? Were some of you people born yesterday? We thought it couldn’t get worse than Nixon, and we got Reagan. We thought it couldn’t get worse than Reagan, and we got Bush.

    I don’t claim to know if things WILL get better or worse. No one else should, either. But they CAN. A council that provides an effective check on ANY mayor is in our best interest, always. That means Nick, and that just about assures his re-election.

  • Danny Noonan

    I will always remember the Mayor as a beacon of light through the dark Bush years.

    But now that it is over, I must say he had one of the worst run campaign ever.

    RIP Greg

  • Danny Noonan

    I will always remember the Mayor as a beacon of light through the dark Bush years.

    But now that it is over, I must say he had one of the worst run campaign ever.

    RIP Greg

  • Danny Noonan

    I will always remember the Mayor as a beacon of light through the dark Bush years.

    But now that it is over, I must say he had one of the worst run campaign ever.

    RIP Greg

  • Reality Check

    I feel like today reality is setting in for people. Now we choose between two men who have never even had a job in the public sector let alone run a major public institution with 10,000 employees.

  • Reality Check

    I feel like today reality is setting in for people. Now we choose between two men who have never even had a job in the public sector let alone run a major public institution with 10,000 employees.

  • Reality Check

    I feel like today reality is setting in for people. Now we choose between two men who have never even had a job in the public sector let alone run a major public institution with 10,000 employees.

  • Andrew Lewis

    Nick’s margin Tuesday night is huge! No Seattle City Council incumbent has lost in the general after getting over 50% in the primary. Furthermore, Nick received a higher margin in a hotly contested primary than any Councilmember since 1999 (and it’s a stretch to call Pageler/Firestone competitive). The highest number in quasi recent history that an incumbent has received in the primary and then gone on to lose the general is 46%. That was in 1985.
    Furthermore, the Licata campaign is starting the general with nearly $40,000 cash on hand, while our opponent is starting with debt and a historically weak 29% of the primary vote.
    We Intend to run a strong campaign with as much vigor as someone 10 points down in the polls. We’re gonna talk about the issues, spread our message, and meet people from every corner of Seattle. We’re working hard for our victory and we’re gonna earn it!

    Andrew
    Licata 2009

  • Andrew Lewis

    Nick’s margin Tuesday night is huge! No Seattle City Council incumbent has lost in the general after getting over 50% in the primary. Furthermore, Nick received a higher margin in a hotly contested primary than any Councilmember since 1999 (and it’s a stretch to call Pageler/Firestone competitive). The highest number in quasi recent history that an incumbent has received in the primary and then gone on to lose the general is 46%. That was in 1985.
    Furthermore, the Licata campaign is starting the general with nearly $40,000 cash on hand, while our opponent is starting with debt and a historically weak 29% of the primary vote.
    We Intend to run a strong campaign with as much vigor as someone 10 points down in the polls. We’re gonna talk about the issues, spread our message, and meet people from every corner of Seattle. We’re working hard for our victory and we’re gonna earn it!

    Andrew
    Licata 2009

  • Andrew Lewis

    Nick’s margin Tuesday night is huge! No Seattle City Council incumbent has lost in the general after getting over 50% in the primary. Furthermore, Nick received a higher margin in a hotly contested primary than any Councilmember since 1999 (and it’s a stretch to call Pageler/Firestone competitive). The highest number in quasi recent history that an incumbent has received in the primary and then gone on to lose the general is 46%. That was in 1985.
    Furthermore, the Licata campaign is starting the general with nearly $40,000 cash on hand, while our opponent is starting with debt and a historically weak 29% of the primary vote.
    We Intend to run a strong campaign with as much vigor as someone 10 points down in the polls. We’re gonna talk about the issues, spread our message, and meet people from every corner of Seattle. We’re working hard for our victory and we’re gonna earn it!

    Andrew
    Licata 2009

  • http://www.43rddems.org/ Michael J. Maddux

    Andrew has nice hair.

  • http://www.43rddems.org/ Michael J. Maddux

    Andrew has nice hair.

  • http://www.43rddems.org Michael J. Maddux

    Andrew has nice hair.

  • Ian

    Omg. It’s catching on. Andrew, clearly your hair was worth 10-points Tuesday night. I did polling on it.

  • Ian

    Omg. It’s catching on. Andrew, clearly your hair was worth 10-points Tuesday night. I did polling on it.

  • White Guy

    Have Josh and Erica not mentioned that SoulNerd’s post on Wednesday broke the single-day comments record because they are frightened by her black female sexuality?

  • White Guy

    Have Josh and Erica not mentioned that SoulNerd’s post on Wednesday broke the single-day comments record because they are frightened by her black female sexuality?

  • http://www.publicola.net/ ECB

    @10: Working on it! Sorry, been bogged down with mayoral race press conferences.

  • http://www.publicola.net/ ECB

    @10: Working on it! Sorry, been bogged down with mayoral race press conferences.

  • http://www.publicola.net ECB

    @10: Working on it! Sorry, been bogged down with mayoral race press conferences.

  • hram

    Andrew did you turn 17 yet? I know that you are trying to display your chest hair but its just not working man. Sorry buddy!

  • hram

    Andrew did you turn 17 yet? I know that you are trying to display your chest hair but its just not working man. Sorry buddy!

  • hram

    Andrew did you turn 17 yet? I know that you are trying to display your chest hair but its just not working man. Sorry buddy!

  • Andrew Lewis

    @21

    Sadly, as many publicola contributors know, most of my hair is concentrated on my head…
    That said, I think 55% is a pretty good indication of the grit, thickness, and badassness of my chest hair. I commend our opponent for attempting to spin straw into gold, but when push comes to shove we’re going into the general with aces full; as opposed to going all in on a pair of twos.
    I did in fact turn 17 two years and it was a fantastic occasion! I bet you wish the same applied to you ;)
    All that said (Considering how snarky I just was) I do want to extend my congratulations to Jessie Israel. I look forward to a vigorous and substantive discussion of the issues facing the people of Seattle, and I’m sure her campaign does as well.

    Andrew

  • Andrew Lewis

    @21

    Sadly, as many publicola contributors know, most of my hair is concentrated on my head…
    That said, I think 55% is a pretty good indication of the grit, thickness, and badassness of my chest hair. I commend our opponent for attempting to spin straw into gold, but when push comes to shove we’re going into the general with aces full; as opposed to going all in on a pair of twos.
    I did in fact turn 17 two years and it was a fantastic occasion! I bet you wish the same applied to you ;)
    All that said (Considering how snarky I just was) I do want to extend my congratulations to Jessie Israel. I look forward to a vigorous and substantive discussion of the issues facing the people of Seattle, and I’m sure her campaign does as well.

    Andrew

  • abc

    There are 37,000 votes left as of yesterday’s received ballots – KCE reports 144,232 ballots received and 107,167 counted. It is not clear how they report the 4000 that were not postmarked in time.

    Israel is 26 points behind Licata not 9.

  • abc

    There are 37,000 votes left as of yesterday’s received ballots – KCE reports 144,232 ballots received and 107,167 counted. It is not clear how they report the 4000 that were not postmarked in time.

    Israel is 26 points behind Licata not 9.

  • abc

    There are 37,000 votes left as of yesterday’s received ballots – KCE reports 144,232 ballots received and 107,167 counted. It is not clear how they report the 4000 that were not postmarked in time.

    Israel is 26 points behind Licata not 9.

  • dacoach

    abc, if you think licata’s winning mmore than a couple of points from Kaplan voters you’re delusional.

  • dacoach

    abc, if you think licata’s winning mmore than a couple of points from Kaplan voters you’re delusional.

  • dacoach

    abc, if you think licata’s winning mmore than a couple of points from Kaplan voters you’re delusional.

  • JackB

    @24

    dacoach, what are you talking about!? Jessie could win ALL of Marty’s votes and it wouldn’t make a huge difference. You need 50%+1 to win, Nick has 55% in a three way race right now, Jessie needs to gain 20 points. Also, speaking as someone who voted for Kaplan (And now plans to vote for Nick) I can speak to the fact that Nick will have substantial pull with Kaplan voters. his platform of fiscally prudent leadership will help bring over moderates like me who sought their dream candidate in Marty but will compromise for Nick.

  • JackB

    @24

    dacoach, what are you talking about!? Jessie could win ALL of Marty’s votes and it wouldn’t make a huge difference. You need 50%+1 to win, Nick has 55% in a three way race right now, Jessie needs to gain 20 points. Also, speaking as someone who voted for Kaplan (And now plans to vote for Nick) I can speak to the fact that Nick will have substantial pull with Kaplan voters. his platform of fiscally prudent leadership will help bring over moderates like me who sought their dream candidate in Marty but will compromise for Nick.

  • JackB

    @24

    dacoach, what are you talking about!? Jessie could win ALL of Marty’s votes and it wouldn’t make a huge difference. You need 50%+1 to win, Nick has 55% in a three way race right now, Jessie needs to gain 20 points. Also, speaking as someone who voted for Kaplan (And now plans to vote for Nick) I can speak to the fact that Nick will have substantial pull with Kaplan voters. his platform of fiscally prudent leadership will help bring over moderates like me who sought their dream candidate in Marty but will compromise for Nick.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    I think most Kaplan voters did so by accident. Most anyone can pull in 15 or 20% in a 3-way race. Including Goodspaceguy, Stan Lippman, and Jan Drago.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    I think most Kaplan voters did so by accident. Most anyone can pull in 15 or 20% in a 3-way race. Including Goodspaceguy, Stan Lippman, and Jan Drago.

  • http://twitter.com/fattailed Fat-tailed

    I think most Kaplan voters did so by accident. Most anyone can pull in 15 or 20% in a 3-way race. Including Goodspaceguy, Stan Lippman, and Jan Drago.

  • J.R.

    @24: A 26-point lead is a 26-point lead, no matter how you spin it.

  • J.R.

    @24: A 26-point lead is a 26-point lead, no matter how you spin it.

  • Middle of the road

    Dow=McCain. Hutchison=Obama

  • Middle of the road

    Dow=McCain. Hutchison=Obama

  • Middle of the road

    Dow=McCain. Hutchison=Obama

  • Christopher Stefan

    One other thing is with Nickels gone from City Hall there is much less need to keep Nick around as a check on the mayor.

    At the very least Israel is going to give Licata a good run and make him work for his re-election. Not generally a bad thing.