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The first online-only news site in state history to get media credentials to cover the state capitol and Seattle city hall, PubliCola has been called a “must-read” by the Seattle Post Intelligencer and a hot “New Media Mover and Shaker” by Seattle Magazine—which also cited our own Erica C. Barnett as the city's No. 1 news nerd.

McGinn Takes the Lead; Constantine Closes Gap.

News   August 21, 2009 at 4:32 pm Erica C. Barnett

In the latest vote totals, Mike McGinn has surpassed Joe Mallahan as the leading contender to succeed Greg Nickels—who conceded this morning—as mayor of Seattle. The latest numbers show McGinn with 27.6 percent to Mallahan’s 27.01 percent—780 votes ahead. In the last vote count, Mallahan was 540 votes ahead of McGinn. Turnout in Seattle so far is a bit over 36 percent.

Meanwhile, Dow Constantine narrowed Susan Hutchison’s lead dramatically—from 15 points on election day, to 9.6 points yesterday, to 6.6 points today. Constantine’s spokesman Sandeep Kaushik said, “the momentum we’ve seen in the last few days is incredible.”

Hutchison’s campaign manager, Jordan McCarren, repeated what he told Josh yesterday: That “special interests were out in force in the final days” of the election. The main “special interest” he’s referring to is the Service Employees International Union, which did a last-minute $41,000 expenditure on Constantine’s behalf.

He also noted that Hutchison (unlike Constantine) did no television ads, which he said would almost certainly change in the general election.


  • Zelbinian

    That sound you hear is me dancing around like an idiot. It’ll pass in a moment.

  • Zelbinian

    That sound you hear is me dancing around like an idiot. It’ll pass in a moment.

  • seven

    How many candidates does Kaushik work for?

  • Timothy

    Had Drago not run, I’d bet that Nickles would have advanced to the general.

  • seven

    How many candidates does Kaushik work for?

  • Timothy

    Had Drago not run, I’d bet that Nickles would have advanced to the general.

  • F5

    quoting from Facebook: “it must’ve been all of the TV commercials”

  • Zelbinian

    @Timothy

    I’m curious about how you arrived at that conclusion. As far as I understand it, Drago’s campaign strategy pretty much involved throwing Nickels under the bus whenever possible.

  • ktstine

    @3 that is an interesting theory that i have yet to see discussed anywhere – that nickels’ downfall was due to the campaign of jan drago, one of the least exciting council members.

  • F5

    quoting from Facebook: “it must’ve been all of the TV commercials”

  • Zelbinian

    @Timothy

    I’m curious about how you arrived at that conclusion. As far as I understand it, Drago’s campaign strategy pretty much involved throwing Nickels under the bus whenever possible.

  • ktstine

    @3 that is an interesting theory that i have yet to see discussed anywhere – that nickels’ downfall was due to the campaign of jan drago, one of the least exciting council members.

  • westside

    Jordan McCarren is a typical Republican shill. He calls working people “special interests”.

    Jordan–Dow is running strong because of his amazing army of field volunteers. It is called a get out the vote effort. I know is hard for you Republicans to believe anything but cash can win an election.

  • westside

    Jordan McCarren is a typical Republican shill. He calls working people “special interests”.

    Jordan–Dow is running strong because of his amazing army of field volunteers. It is called a get out the vote effort. I know is hard for you Republicans to believe anything but cash can win an election.

  • abc

    How many candidates does Kaushik work for?

    Publicola – why don’t you put together a chart of campaigns, consultants and results. It would be interesting to see how the vaunted pros actually have performed.

    And is that the same Kaushik that formed Publicola?

  • abc

    How many candidates does Kaushik work for?

    Publicola – why don’t you put together a chart of campaigns, consultants and results. It would be interesting to see how the vaunted pros actually have performed.

    And is that the same Kaushik that formed Publicola?

  • http://www.publicola.net/ ECB

    @8: Fair question. Yes. Full explanation here: http://publicola.net/?p=10541

  • http://www.publicola.net ECB

    @8: Fair question. Yes. Full explanation here: http://publicola.net/?p=10541

  • JesseMT

    Here’s my theory on why Constantine is doing better with later voters: People that were voting for Susan had an easy choice. Conservatives knew from the get-go that she was their candidate and did not have a difficult decision to make. Progressives, on the other hand, had a tougher task deciding between four Democrats, three of which had pretty solid progressive credentials.

    I suspect a lot of people were going back and forth in their minds between Dow and Larry, Dow and Ross, and ultimately decided last-minute to back Dow once they saw those late ads or polls showing he was the most likely to get through.

  • JesseMT

    Here’s my theory on why Constantine is doing better with later voters: People that were voting for Susan had an easy choice. Conservatives knew from the get-go that she was their candidate and did not have a difficult decision to make. Progressives, on the other hand, had a tougher task deciding between four Democrats, three of which had pretty solid progressive credentials.

    I suspect a lot of people were going back and forth in their minds between Dow and Larry, Dow and Ross, and ultimately decided last-minute to back Dow once they saw those late ads or polls showing he was the most likely to get through.

  • Sarah

    Drago’s few votes drained them off Nickels. Why is that so hard to figure out?

  • Sarah

    Drago’s few votes drained them off Nickels. Why is that so hard to figure out?

  • J.R.

    It’s equally obvious that Hutchison’s chances are draining away with her primary lead.

  • J.R.

    It’s equally obvious that Hutchison’s chances are draining away with her primary lead.

  • Voting Guy

    Sarah @11, you’re right on the mark. Drago’s voters liked the Nickels agenda (their agendas being essentially indistinguishable) but saw him as damaged goods, unlikely to get re-elected. So the best Plan B for them was to have a November run-off between Nickels and Drago…

  • Voting Guy

    Sarah @11, you’re right on the mark. Drago’s voters liked the Nickels agenda (their agendas being essentially indistinguishable) but saw him as damaged goods, unlikely to get re-elected. So the best Plan B for them was to have a November run-off between Nickels and Drago…

  • Mikos

    I don’t think there is much doubt that if a couple of things had been different Nickels would have made it through the primary. Drago definitely took votes from him. Her constituency (she admitted this) was largely the same and even if she wasn’t exciting and started with a pretty good following but faded badly, all Nickels needed was a small part of her support to move on t the general.

  • Mikos

    I don’t think there is much doubt that if a couple of things had been different Nickels would have made it through the primary. Drago definitely took votes from him. Her constituency (she admitted this) was largely the same and even if she wasn’t exciting and started with a pretty good following but faded badly, all Nickels needed was a small part of her support to move on t the general.

  • J.R.

    @7, 10: You can’t ignore Constantine’s fine GOTV effort, but I suspect that his totals were boosted by all the other Seattle campaigns (McGinn, Licata, Green Bag) that also did election-eve phone calling. Both of the Seattle mayoral campaigns will certainly put together large-scale GOTV operations in November, which should help turn out Dow’s base again.

  • J.R.

    @7, 10: You can’t ignore Constantine’s fine GOTV effort, but I suspect that his totals were boosted by all the other Seattle campaigns (McGinn, Licata, Green Bag) that also did election-eve phone calling. Both of the Seattle mayoral campaigns will certainly put together large-scale GOTV operations in November, which should help turn out Dow’s base again.

  • Walkable Greenwood

    Let’s not lose sight of the fact that if McGinn had not been at the top of the ballot (apparently by a random selection process), he’d be out. That’s a 3% advantage by my research. No Show McGinn got lucky on that one.

  • Walkable Greenwood

    Let’s not lose sight of the fact that if McGinn had not been at the top of the ballot (apparently by a random selection process), he’d be out. That’s a 3% advantage by my research. No Show McGinn got lucky on that one.

  • Quinn

    @16

    My god! We ignored your research? Damn this hubris of ours!

  • Quinn

    @16

    My god! We ignored your research? Damn this hubris of ours!