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The Early Prognosis: "Awful."

fizz56

1. As he heads into next Tuesday’s primary, Mayor Greg Nickels got a timely shout-out from Seattle’s hip-hop break dance troupe Massive Monkees on MTV’s America’s Best Dance Crew last night. The group thanked Nickels for supporting them, and played a clip of Nickels giving the group the Mayor’s Arts Award in 2007.

2. Could Nickels be getting ready to go negative? His latest ad begins with the message, "Some candidates have promised progressive policies. Only one has delivered." Nickels plans to spend another $47,000 in the week leading up to the election on a late ad buy.

A negative Nickels ad (starring Nickels as the progressive vs. a conservative rival) has one likely target: T-Mobile executive Joe Mallahan, who has surged in recent polls.

3. Port of Seattle candidate Tom Albro—the target of an independent expenditure campaign by unions who are backing his opponent Max Vekich—posted a red "Caution" warning on his latest mailer, complete with a skull and crossbones. The warning? "Beware of special interests masquerading as ‘Port Reform’ who are being bankrolled by out-of-state organized labor."

caution2

Of the $75,000  in contributions that the union-backed group (King County Citizens for Port Reform) has reported to the Public Disclosure Commission, $25,000 comes from The Drive Committee (a Teamsters group) in Washington, D.C. and $20,000 comes from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union in San Francisco.

King County Citizens for Port Reform defends the out-of-state contributions by pointing out that The Drive Committee represents 40,000 dues-paying Teamsters in Washington state and the ILWU has 8,000 dues-paying members in Washington State.

4. The New York Times reports that since the closure of the print edition of the Seattle P-I , the Seattle Times ‘ circulation has surged more than 30 percent—and Times publisher Frank Blethen now says the struggling paper is "in the black."

How much black ink and by what measure, the privately held company will not say, and amid a sharp advertising downturn, no one denies that its situation remains precarious. But The Times has improved its prospects by picking up most P-I subscribers and managing to keep them so far. It says its daily circulation rose more than 30 percent, to more than 260,000 in June, from about 200,000.

5. WA Sen. Maria Cantwell—whose position on health care reform has been the subject of much speculation —unequivocally confirms that she supports a fully public option on Bill Press’ nationally syndicated radio show. Andrew Villeneuve has the wonky details .

6. The city will release its latest revenue forecast—the basis for the mayor’s next budget—in a couple of weeks. Although no one knows exactly how big the shortfall will be, the early prognosis, according to city hall sources, is: "Awful."


  • http://www.movinglikewater.com/ Nicholas

    Re: Cantwell, the interesting point to me is whether she’ll oppose any reform that does NOT have a public option or if she’ll support it only if it happens to be there (ie, by finally declaring she’ll support it, is this simply cover from the left now that she thinks it won’t be in the bill anyway?)
    Not to say I don’t trust her, but trust is earned.

  • http://www.movinglikewater.com Nicholas

    Re: Cantwell, the interesting point to me is whether she’ll oppose any reform that does NOT have a public option or if she’ll support it only if it happens to be there (ie, by finally declaring she’ll support it, is this simply cover from the left now that she thinks it won’t be in the bill anyway?)
    Not to say I don’t trust her, but trust is earned.

  • Leaward

    Albro sounds worried, using scare tactics like skulls and crossbones. He’s trying to divert attention from his own money sources, eh?

    And Albro’s claim isn’t even accurate. If the auto-workers (UAW) were contributing to Port Reform, okay I’d see that as out of state money. But since when are ILWU and the Teamsters out of state money sources? They have thousands of members in King County who pay dues. It’s just their money coming back to their own initiatives. Seems fair to me.

    Wasn’t Cathy Allen saying Albro was a “pro union kinda guy” last week? Hardly.

  • Leaward

    Albro sounds worried, using scare tactics like skulls and crossbones. He’s trying to divert attention from his own money sources, eh?

    And Albro’s claim isn’t even accurate. If the auto-workers (UAW) were contributing to Port Reform, okay I’d see that as out of state money. But since when are ILWU and the Teamsters out of state money sources? They have thousands of members in King County who pay dues. It’s just their money coming back to their own initiatives. Seems fair to me.

    Wasn’t Cathy Allen saying Albro was a “pro union kinda guy” last week? Hardly.

  • Leaward

    Sorry, here is the correct link for Cathy Allen’s quote.

  • Leaward

    Sorry, here is the correct link for Cathy Allen’s quote.

  • swatter

    Murray must be at least a little ‘squishy’ because I got a 2 or 3 paragraph e-mail from Obama requesting I camp out at her office.

  • swatter

    Murray must be at least a little ‘squishy’ because I got a 2 or 3 paragraph e-mail from Obama requesting I camp out at her office.

  • Echo Hill

    Albro’s pretty clearly linked himself with the business-as-usual crowd. The Pat Davis contributors flocking to his campaign sure think so. So its no wonder he’s opposing any reform of the Port, especially if the reform energy is coming from those nasty unions.

    I doubt Albro feels so strongly about all the Washington DC defense contractors that backed Gael Tarleton. He certainly took her endorsement and contributions.

  • Echo Hill

    Albro’s pretty clearly linked himself with the business-as-usual crowd. The Pat Davis contributors flocking to his campaign sure think so. So its no wonder he’s opposing any reform of the Port, especially if the reform energy is coming from those nasty unions.

    I doubt Albro feels so strongly about all the Washington DC defense contractors that backed Gael Tarleton. He certainly took her endorsement and contributions.

  • Echo Hill

    Second thought: There’s another story here: Cathy Allen’s duplicity.

    She’s taking union money and help for Larry Phillips (who some but not all of the local unions are backing) while advising Albro to attack unions as his campaign message. Phillips might want to have a talk with his consultant. That kind of shit can come back to hurt a candidate.

  • Echo Hill

    Second thought: There’s another story here: Cathy Allen’s duplicity.

    She’s taking union money and help for Larry Phillips (who some but not all of the local unions are backing) while advising Albro to attack unions as his campaign message. Phillips might want to have a talk with his consultant. That kind of shit can come back to hurt a candidate.

  • MassiveMonkees

    Vote for Massive Monkees on ABDC —— Text 3 to 22444

  • MassiveMonkees

    Vote for Massive Monkees on ABDC —— Text 3 to 22444

  • Stephanie

    The Times’ may be in the black, but the paper is so tiny.

    And Go, Massive Monkees!!!! They did great last night!

  • Stephanie

    The Times’ may be in the black, but the paper is so tiny.

    And Go, Massive Monkees!!!! They did great last night!

  • Mikos

    @1 as early as a month ago Cantwell was saying she supported a public option. Although I’m not a big Cantwell fan, she has been frustrated with the fuzziness of the public option as articulated (or NOT articulated) by Obama.

    re: Nickels. Doesn’t he have to go negative? He is a known quantity and so far none of his attempts to increase his support are working. Meanwhile, Mallahan and McGinn and are catching up to him. He has only one other course to take and that is to criticize his opponents. Nothing wrong with that in my opinion. Afterall, they have been clubbing him for months. The real question, is it too little too late?

  • Mikos

    @1 as early as a month ago Cantwell was saying she supported a public option. Although I’m not a big Cantwell fan, she has been frustrated with the fuzziness of the public option as articulated (or NOT articulated) by Obama.

    re: Nickels. Doesn’t he have to go negative? He is a known quantity and so far none of his attempts to increase his support are working. Meanwhile, Mallahan and McGinn and are catching up to him. He has only one other course to take and that is to criticize his opponents. Nothing wrong with that in my opinion. Afterall, they have been clubbing him for months. The real question, is it too little too late?

  • tikka

    So, when is this “awful” report coming out….after the primary, right?

    Grrr.

  • tikka

    So, when is this “awful” report coming out….after the primary, right?

    Grrr.

  • Progressive Prism

    Albro is attacking -other- people based on their money sources?! Does he really want to draw more attention to the fact that he’s funded by Pat Davis’ crowd and the usual suspects of Republican donors?

    @6 I’m often amazed at how unskillfully Cathy Allen is able to talk out of both sides of her mouth at the same time. Does she just take money from whoever will give it to her or does she have some sort of standards in the candidates she takes on? I guess that question is rhetorical since she works for both Albro and Doud.

  • Progressive Prism

    Albro is attacking -other- people based on their money sources?! Does he really want to draw more attention to the fact that he’s funded by Pat Davis’ crowd and the usual suspects of Republican donors?

    @6 I’m often amazed at how unskillfully Cathy Allen is able to talk out of both sides of her mouth at the same time. Does she just take money from whoever will give it to her or does she have some sort of standards in the candidates she takes on? I guess that question is rhetorical since she works for both Albro and Doud.

  • Cj

    ha! i think the problem with going negative at this point is there is too much to say, Nickel’s has been silent because it has been 8 vs 1 and who do you take a swing at? Mallahan is a good call. he is leading the challenger but is also the most easily be deconstructed into someone who … really is an unknown that works for a questionable company, has no community experience, and really doesn’t vote. Makes more sense than going after Jan.

    ..and it’s definitely not too late, hardly any ballots have been turned in yet! probably perfect timing.

  • Cj

    ha! i think the problem with going negative at this point is there is too much to say, Nickel’s has been silent because it has been 8 vs 1 and who do you take a swing at? Mallahan is a good call. he is leading the challenger but is also the most easily be deconstructed into someone who … really is an unknown that works for a questionable company, has no community experience, and really doesn’t vote. Makes more sense than going after Jan.

    ..and it’s definitely not too late, hardly any ballots have been turned in yet! probably perfect timing.

  • fredster

    going negative is risky – does it provide one more reason for people to dislike Nichols (the personality thing) with the result his own numbers go down to the point where he might find himself in third?

  • fredster

    going negative is risky – does it provide one more reason for people to dislike Nichols (the personality thing) with the result his own numbers go down to the point where he might find himself in third?

  • Mikos

    Fredster,

    I am convinced he has nothing to lose. He is not going to win the general (if he gets there) unless he can convince people that Mallahan would be worse then he is. I think the risk of going negative is with the candidate who ends up facing Hutchison in the genral election. Independent expenditures will take some of the onus off of negative campaigning off her opponent but there is still risk involved.
    But Nickels? He has to do it.

  • Mikos

    Fredster,

    I am convinced he has nothing to lose. He is not going to win the general (if he gets there) unless he can convince people that Mallahan would be worse then he is. I think the risk of going negative is with the candidate who ends up facing Hutchison in the genral election. Independent expenditures will take some of the onus off of negative campaigning off her opponent but there is still risk involved.
    But Nickels? He has to do it.

  • Insight provider

    22 points sucks. And he’s not going up even though he has tons of tv ads!

    He better do something different or else he’s not going to make it to the general election. McGinn rose about 6 points and could overtake him for second place!

    Problem is, Nickels doesn’t have anything he’s offering us that’s in the future. We already are a green type city; we already have the light rail in place or in process; we believe ANY mayor will be green.

    What’s Nickels running for, why’s he running?

    this is the hard part for a two term incumbent. He’s got to convince folks that he’s going to do something for them, while eplaining why if it’s such a good idea he hasn’t done it already, all the while fighting the negatives.

    And if he goes negative on Mallahan, expect to see West Seattle citizens close up on camera bitching about how they had to walk to work because their bus couldn’t make it in the snow because mayor got his own street plowed first!

    I’ll bet Mallahan can’t WAIT for Nickels to go negative.

  • Insight provider

    22 points sucks. And he’s not going up even though he has tons of tv ads!

    He better do something different or else he’s not going to make it to the general election. McGinn rose about 6 points and could overtake him for second place!

    Problem is, Nickels doesn’t have anything he’s offering us that’s in the future. We already are a green type city; we already have the light rail in place or in process; we believe ANY mayor will be green.

    What’s Nickels running for, why’s he running?

    this is the hard part for a two term incumbent. He’s got to convince folks that he’s going to do something for them, while eplaining why if it’s such a good idea he hasn’t done it already, all the while fighting the negatives.

    And if he goes negative on Mallahan, expect to see West Seattle citizens close up on camera bitching about how they had to walk to work because their bus couldn’t make it in the snow because mayor got his own street plowed first!

    I’ll bet Mallahan can’t WAIT for Nickels to go negative.

  • Corrective action

    @12, 13, 14, 15

    As of Friday, King County Elections reported that they’ve received 70,000 ballots of the 150,000 projected (countywide). We should expect more than 50% of the ballots to be in with a full week to go ’til August 18th.

    The latest Nickels ad doesn’t mention anyone specifically – just “some candidates promise progressive values.” I think its just an effort to shore up his falling numbers and gain some share of the remaining undecided voters. I don’t think this ad is going to drive down anyone else’s numbers.

    If the polling trends continue, it may be Nickels and McGinn in a competition for 2nd place. The next King5/Survey USA numbers will be telling.

  • Corrective action

    @12, 13, 14, 15

    As of Friday, King County Elections reported that they’ve received 70,000 ballots of the 150,000 projected (countywide). We should expect more than 50% of the ballots to be in with a full week to go ’til August 18th.

    The latest Nickels ad doesn’t mention anyone specifically – just “some candidates promise progressive values.” I think its just an effort to shore up his falling numbers and gain some share of the remaining undecided voters. I don’t think this ad is going to drive down anyone else’s numbers.

    If the polling trends continue, it may be Nickels and McGinn in a competition for 2nd place. The next King5/Survey USA numbers will be telling.

  • Reverand Al

    NYTimes story is wrong. Just read on Romenesko that Seattle Times circulation in April was 289,000, and, now 260,000; that’s an amazing 30,000 drop in a few months!

  • Reverand Al

    NYTimes story is wrong. Just read on Romenesko that Seattle Times circulation in April was 289,000, and, now 260,000; that’s an amazing 30,000 drop in a few months!

  • Cj

    @15 what’s easier than going negative on someone with a record? Going negative on someone with NO record. (unless you count T Mobile, which I’m sure won’t help)

  • Cj

    @15 what’s easier than going negative on someone with a record? Going negative on someone with NO record. (unless you count T Mobile, which I’m sure won’t help)

  • PCO37

    After the affordable housing groundbreaking this noon at MLK & Alaska, Senator Murray said she supported a full public option, and Rep. McDermott said “It’s like I’ve seen this movie before — but this time Obama is handling things differently and we will have a good outcome. You wait – we will pass health care reform.”

    Mayor Nickels basked in the praise of HUD Secretary Donovan who said that NYC Mayor Bloomburg always spoke highly of Nickels efforts for sustainability.

  • PCO37

    After the affordable housing groundbreaking this noon at MLK & Alaska, Senator Murray said she supported a full public option, and Rep. McDermott said “It’s like I’ve seen this movie before — but this time Obama is handling things differently and we will have a good outcome. You wait – we will pass health care reform.”

    Mayor Nickels basked in the praise of HUD Secretary Donovan who said that NYC Mayor Bloomburg always spoke highly of Nickels efforts for sustainability.

  • Corrective action

    @18

    The old experiencelimited record attack. It worked

  • Tizz

    I was talking with a friend about Nickels yesterday and my friend sighed that Nickels always gets praise from national leaders but we don’t really see the results here at home. It’s hard to make a case for another 4 year term, particularly when it’s evident that he’ll be away & on the national stage even more with the US Conference of Mayors.

    BTW, can anyone break down what pols here mean when they throw around the phrase “progressive values”?

  • Corrective action

    @18

    The old experience\limited record attack. It worked

  • Tizz

    I was talking with a friend about Nickels yesterday and my friend sighed that Nickels always gets praise from national leaders but we don’t really see the results here at home. It’s hard to make a case for another 4 year term, particularly when it’s evident that he’ll be away & on the national stage even more with the US Conference of Mayors.

    BTW, can anyone break down what pols here mean when they throw around the phrase “progressive values”?

  • Corrective action

    @ 20 continued ….

    so well against Obama. Not.

  • Corrective action

    @ 20 continued ….

    so well against Obama. Not.

  • Sarah

    @21: The meaning of “progressive values” depends on the speaker. For instance, Sally Bagshaw insists she’s got progressive values. Nickels does also. To me that’s nonsense. So basically unless you know the person claiming those values, it means nothing, and if you know the person, you don’t need them to tell you. Of course, the trouble is most voters don’t know these people and just vote based on key words.

  • Sarah

    @21: The meaning of “progressive values” depends on the speaker. For instance, Sally Bagshaw insists she’s got progressive values. Nickels does also. To me that’s nonsense. So basically unless you know the person claiming those values, it means nothing, and if you know the person, you don’t need them to tell you. Of course, the trouble is most voters don’t know these people and just vote based on key words.

  • Cj

    @20 except Obama had experience, waaaay more than than your guy..he is no Obama.

  • Cj

    @20 except Obama had experience, waaaay more than than your guy..he is no Obama.

  • Corrective action

    @24

    CJ,

    I’m really looking forward to primary election night. Do we still have a bet on who wins?

    All the best,
    CA

  • Corrective action

    @24

    CJ,

    I’m really looking forward to primary election night. Do we still have a bet on who wins?

    All the best,
    CA

  • Cj

    Not sure…blind dates freak me out…

  • Cj

    Not sure…blind dates freak me out…

  • Corrective action

    My wife won’t let me date. I just want you to pay my bar tab.

  • Corrective action

    My wife won’t let me date. I just want you to pay my bar tab.