Did I tell you or did I tell you? As Seattle Times Boeing reporter Dominic Gates reports today, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner might not be ready for its first flight test until 2010.
The initial word from Boeing about a structural flaw in how the wings attach to the fuselage had been that it was a minor problem, requiring a few patches. It didn’t sound minor, and Boeing suppliers were already murmuring about “months not weeks” a month ago. Now it’s clear that the fix will require several months if a successful patch can be determined.
Late last month here on PubliCola, I wrote about how the 787 resembled a software project instead of a hardware one. Software projects are squishy. Bugs appear, and it’s impossible to know how long they take to fix. It’s also impossible to estimate reliably how long a given large task will take to complete.
It’s possible that this wing flaw could be the straw that breaks Boeing’s back. The company doesn’t know how to fix it or when it will be fixed. It’s possible there will be no relatively easy fix (with months being an easy fix), and an entire redesign of the assembly structure will be required, pushing the first test flight back 18 to 24 months.
That would cost Boeing billions, and mean more layoffs here and elsewhere. Boeing has only itself to blame. The unions warned about global outsourcing without good controls; self serving as the warning was, it turned out entirely true. But this latest issue goes beyond that into fundamental design issue. This plane has to fly; but can it fly?
