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Digging Into the KING 5 Polling Numbers

News   June 24, 2009 at 3:35 pm Erica C. Barnett

Digging into the tracking data on the widely reported KING 5 poll reveals some interesting numbers, including this weird tidbit: King County Council member Larry Phillips, a lefty with heavy labor support, only beat his opponent Dow Constantine, a lefty with heavy elected-official support, among two groups: Those who identified as “conservative,” and those who identified as “Republican.”

Also interesting: Men like Phillips more than women (and women like Republican Susan Hutchison more than men); Hutchison’s popularity, which is 41 percent overall, spikes among minorities, including black voters (58 percent) and Hispanic voters (55 percent); and although Hutchison has tried to conceal her party affiliation, her base is conservative, with self-identified Republicans and conservatives supporting her by margins of 55 and 56 percent, respectively.


  • swatter

    55 and 56% doesn’t seem that high for the only Republican. I say again, it makes sense for the D candidates to reach out (at least a little).

    Especially since it doesn’t look like Jarrett is getting many of the R votes. Maybe the switch and something about the memories of elephants?

  • swatter

    55 and 56% doesn’t seem that high for the only Republican. I say again, it makes sense for the D candidates to reach out (at least a little).

    Especially since it doesn’t look like Jarrett is getting many of the R votes. Maybe the switch and something about the memories of elephants?

  • Jeff

    What is the margin of error for these cross-tabs? Probably huge, which would explain the weird demographic results.

    I’d also like to see the MOE for the poll as a whole. How big was the sample size?

  • Jeff

    What is the margin of error for these cross-tabs? Probably huge, which would explain the weird demographic results.

    I’d also like to see the MOE for the poll as a whole. How big was the sample size?

  • Danny Noonan

    Goodspaceguy beating Phillips in the 18-49 demographic.

    While Larry did edge Dow is conservatives, Dow tripled up LP in young voters and liberals, and Dow doubled in every other demographic.

    Clearly his courage to call out Susan Hutchison resonated with the base. Susan’s numbers went up because of all the great weather nobody’s taking the time to see she is Palin Version 2.0

  • Danny Noonan

    Goodspaceguy beating Phillips in the 18-49 demographic.

    While Larry did edge Dow is conservatives, Dow tripled up LP in young voters and liberals, and Dow doubled in every other demographic.

    Clearly his courage to call out Susan Hutchison resonated with the base. Susan’s numbers went up because of all the great weather nobody’s taking the time to see she is Palin Version 2.0

  • Andy

    Alternatively, Danny, the poll is shit. I know its fun to dump on Phillips, but really? Goodspaceguy beating anyone in any demographic?

  • Andy

    Alternatively, Danny, the poll is shit. I know its fun to dump on Phillips, but really? Goodspaceguy beating anyone in any demographic?